Area of convection (Former 92L)

[tolakram]

The invest floater was moved to Dean for landfall, this might have thrown things off. Since they still expect slow development I would be surprised if they canceled the invest.

[Weatherboy1]

HPC not as bullish on this system in the a.m. Their early discussion just mentions how none of the other models are confirming the couple that are developing our former 92. Oh well. Hopefully we'll get some rain out of it here in FL anyway.

THE GEFS MEAN HAS STAYED THE COURSE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH THE 00Z/21 OPERATIONAL ECMWF FALLING INTO LINE WITH
ITS TIMING. THE 00Z/21 OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL OUT OF SYNC...SO
WAS DISREGARDED FOR UPDATE PACKAGE. THE ONE TRUE UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS POINT IS WHAT IS TO BECOME OF AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NOT
FAR FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING. THE 00Z/21 GEM GLOBAL STILL
MAINTAINS THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP FROM THIS SYSTEM
AND TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE 06Z/21 DGEX ALSO DEVELOPS THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT CURVES IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULF
STREAM. THE OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z/21 GFS...ECMWF...AND
UKMET...SIMPLY SCOOT A WEAK WAVE ACROSS FLORIDA AT THE VERY
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN DAMP IT OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RATHER QUICKLY. THE FACT THAT THESE OTHER
MODELS HAVE NOT TRENDED TOWARD THE GEM/DGEX DEVELOPMENT NOW THAT
THE SYSTEM IS WITHIN 3 DAYS OF AFFECTING THE UNITED STATES IS A
SIGN THAT IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE...SO DEPICTED THE
FAST...FLAT IDEA FOR UPDATED MANUAL CHARTS. 16Z/21 COORDINATION
WITH TPC MAY YIELD A DIFFERENT FORECAST WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN
FINAL ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

[fci]

I don't see a "rain event" from this wave for South Florida.

An enhancement of activity but not a drought-buster type of rainfall. Nothing tremendously organized.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 21, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dean...centered just inland about 85 miles southeast of Campeche
Mexico.

The broad area of showers and thunderstorms...located a few hundred
miles north-northwest of Puerto Rico...has not become any better
organized this morning. Upper-level winds are becoming less
favorable for development as this system moves westward near 20
mph.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Rhome/Franklin

Bye!!!

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



What a shame. Lake Okeechobee needed little Felix to help with the drought but it seems 92L is not helping.

Nevertheless, never say never.

[otowntiger]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 21, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dean...centered just inland about 85 miles southeast of Campeche
Mexico.

The broad area of showers and thunderstorms...located a few hundred
miles north-northwest of Puerto Rico...has not become any better
organized this morning. Upper-level winds are becoming less
favorable for development as this system moves westward near 20
mph.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Rhome/Franklin

Bye!!!

Yeah. I was just gonna say: in other words "Good bye little system" - nice try.

[storms in NC]

Latest:



What a shame. Lake Okeechobee needed little Felix to help with the drought but it seems 92L is not helping.

Nevertheless, never say never.

Till they close the locks rain will not help. The water will just run out of it. It is ashame. Was a good fishing place.

[storms in NC]

When I seen that ULL this moring I knew then it was not going to do any thing.

[Zardoz]

Well, if south Florida doesn't even get a decent rain out of this it'll be a darned shame. Let's hope the Everglades don't dry completely up this year...

[fci]

Where are all the people who were christening this as Felix yesterday???

Oh well..... I guess we'll see them for Invest 93L

[DESTRUCTION5]

Where are all the people who were christening this as Felix yesterday???

Oh well..... I guess we'll see them for Invest 93L

I was not Christening Felix yesterday but i did say it would head west..Besides that its not over till its over...

[HeeBGBz]

The NAM 4 panel chart at hour 84 has two lows near Florida. One east of central FL and the other larger one down by the keys.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/fp0_084.shtml

[Sanibel]

There could be a weak vorticity involved with this, but I need a sharp floater close-up to find out. Frustrating when they have several floaters not even being used.

[tolakram]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 21, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dean...centered just inland about 85 miles southeast of Campeche
Mexico.

The broad area of showers and thunderstorms...located a few hundred
miles north-northwest of Puerto Rico...has not become any better
organized this morning. Upper-level winds are becoming less
favorable for development as this system moves westward near 20
mph.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Rhome/Franklin

Bye!!!

So who was it that was making fun of Dr. Lyons when he stated it appeared conditions would become less favorable? How many pages did we have making fun of him or the weather channel?

[Portastorm]

Alright Tolakram, I'll own up to it ... I was one of those making light of Dr. Steve's prediction on 92L. Props to Dr. Steve!

However, he's got a 1-1 record with me this season on fledgling systems.

[Steve]

>>So who was it that was making fun of Dr. Lyons when he stated it appeared conditions would become less favorable? How many pages did we have making fun of him or the weather channel?

Wasn't me. But I don't waste any time with The Weather Channel. There's too much real information out there that I don't need repackaged. I'm sure as an independent, Dr. Steve would be the man. He's pretty candid in his interviews with the tropical weather community. But under the auspices of TWC, their tropical updates are essentially worthless except when the web links to satellite images are down.

JMO. No knock on Dr. Steve, but I really REALLY don't care about the Weather Channel.

Steve

[vaffie]

The Canadian Model always has a new and interesting twist on tropical development. Sometimes, amazingly, it turns out to be right, sometimes it says that there's a possibility, anyway, today, it has 92L cross Florida, developing into a strong storm just nw of Tampa.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

WRF closes off a low in the Gulf and takes it to a point east of Tampico where it seems to stall.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

The GFS does something similar but is much weaker--so it's not clear if it stalls or just goes inland.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

At 48 hours, the UKMET model has a semi-closed weak low in the Florida Keys.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[mutley]

There could be a weak vorticity involved with this, but I need a sharp floater close-up to find out. Frustrating when they have several floaters not even being used.

It looks like a surface or mid-level swirl around 27N and 67W.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think conditions will probably be better for this wave to develop once it nears FL or gets into GOM later this week and this weekend. The models seem to agree too, as most of them do not show much of anything until this system is in that vicinity. We will just have to wait and see. Probably no development for at least the next couple of days though.