Wave in Eastern Atlantic

[AtlanticWind]

I think we could see an invest later today.

[skysummit]

Possible dean path again....Looking at steering currents.

Maybe...depending on future strength if this turns out to be anything at all. 500mb GFS is showing the Gulf open for business in 5 days. If this does develop, I don't think we'll see another long, west runner.

[Sanibel]

More like 32W - 11N

There's a clear surface WSW inflow on the visible loop and overall curvature in the convection band. Judging from 2007 so far I would say this won't form simply because of the hostile environment around it and the fact that other swirls and light convection like this have all dissipated so far. But this could be the one that beats it as the season becomes prime.

[skysummit]

More like 32W - 11N

There's a clear surface WSW inflow on the visible loop and overall curvature in the convection band. Judging from 2007 so far I would say this won't form simply because of the hostile environment around it and the fact that other swirls and light convection like this have all dissipated so far. But this could be the one that beats it as the season becomes prime.

What hostile environment are you referring to? The little bit of easterly shear moving along with the wave at 15 - 20mph? Or the very little SAL surrounding the area? I don't see anything close to a "hostile" environment.

[windstorm99]

[skysummit]

Very nice moisture envelope with the wave. I'm not concerned with the dry air one bit.

[RL3AO]

It needs some more organized convection, then it will easily become 94L.

[windstorm99]

The dry air is moving in tandem with the tropical wave and overall conditions look to improve in the next couple of days which my allow for some slow development of this wave.Adrian

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
I think you can clearly see a circulation trying to get going on this loop.

[Sanibel]

What hostile environment are you referring to? The little bit of easterly shear moving along with the wave at 15 - 20mph? Or the very little SAL surrounding the area? I don't see anything close to a "hostile" environment.

Ah, the one that has suppressed all storms except Dean this year maybe? What favorable environment are you referring to? If the environment was favorable this disturbance would have deeper convection. Pretty simple really.

[skysummit]

The dry air is moving in tandem with the tropical wave and overall conditions look to improve in the next couple of days which my allow for some slow development of this wave.Adrian

I agree Adrian. I don't see the dry air hampering it much. If only convection can increase over the next day or two. It has been maintaining at least some convection for the past 2 days.

[windstorm99]

12z GFS likes the eastcoast on that run at 384hrs....Just for fun though.

[skysummit]

What hostile environment are you referring to? The little bit of easterly shear moving along with the wave at 15 - 20mph? Or the very little SAL surrounding the area? I don't see anything close to a "hostile" environment.

Ah, the one that has suppressed all storms except Dean this year maybe? What favorable environment are you referring to? If the environment was favorable this disturbance would have deeper convection. Pretty simple really.

LOL...what you think just because every wave doesn't develop, conditions are unfavorable? There's a lot more to it than "pretty simple". Conditions will be improving over the next few days as this area moves west. I already made my points about this area not being "hostile". It's moving west 15 - 20mph along with about 15kts of EASTERLY shear....not too bad. The SAL is no where to be found, and it's carrying a very nice moisture envelope. Give it another day or two and convection will increase. As for now, it'll just hold its own just as it has been doing for 2 days. If conditions were so "hostile", the convection is presently has would've dissipated long ago.

[Sanibel]

LOL...what you think just because every wave doesn't develop, conditions are unfavorable

I'll just let that stand on its own. Myself I'm trying to figure how an environment that prevents every wave from forming can be construed as "favorable"? (With a "LOL" included to boot!)

[skysummit]

LOL...what you think just because every wave doesn't develop, conditions are unfavorable

I'll just let that stand on its own. Myself I'm trying to figure how an environment that prevents every wave from forming can be construed as "favorable"? (With a "LOL" included to boot!)

Why? Conditions can be down right perfect out there and every wave will not develop. That's just how it is. I do agree the environment is not as good as it was with Dean, but it's more than enough to support development at this point. At least, that's what the NHC believes, but what do they know?

[RL3AO]

The NHC said development was possible, which is a step above of what they normally say (Development will be slow to occur)

[Sanibel]

I disagree with that. What you are saying is the environment is favorable but some other factor is keeping the waves from developing. Myself, I say the waves are part of an organic whole system which is also reflected by the waves themselves and that the waves are reflecting the negativity or hostility of the environment. This seems to be borne out by the fact this disturbance has a clear vorticity, yet isn't sprouting deep convection in an environment you call favorable. I say this is because the environment is hostile. In a favorable environment the convection would deepen. It seems like the tail wagging the dog when one argues the environment is favorable even though no waves are developing in it. You are probably missing horizontal shear or subsidence.

[cycloneye]

Look at 9n-34w where the barbs are turning in a weak circule.Is a weak circulation at this time.

[skysummit]

I disagree with that. What you are saying is the environment is favorable but some other factor is keeping the waves from developing. Myself, I say the waves are part of an organic whole system which is also reflected by the waves themselves and that the waves are reflecting the negativity or hostility of the environment. This seems to be borne out by the fact this disturbance has a clear vorticity, yet isn't sprouting deep convection in an environment you call favorable. I say this is because the environment is hostile. In a favorable environment the convection would deepen. It seems like the tail wagging the dog when one argues the environment is favorable even though no waves are developing in it. You are probably missing horizontal shear or subsidence.

The environment can be favorable yet conditions stable at the same time. I believe that's what is happening here. IMO, the environment is good enough to support cyclone formation, hence it being able to maintain some convection and a low/mid level circulation, however, I also believe the area is not fairly unstable enough yet to support blossoming, deep convection.

It's cool though...different opinions. That's what these boards are for! I respect your thoughts Sanibel

[Sanibel]

Quickscat puts it nearer to 34W. I think the fact that it is on Quickscat's radar gives it a higher level of possibility. Definitley one to watch now.