Depression to form in GOM??

[HeeBGBz]

Local met mentioned the tropical wave that would be bringing us rain this weekend. Didn't say much of anything about it developing. I think they said it was around Pensacola right now.

[LaBreeze]

Local mets not mentioning or even hinting about anything out in the GOM for the future. In fact, they all have rain chances decreasing within the next few days and week.

[ronjon]

Disorganized heavy convection that seems to be increasing - shear still fairly high but as it moves toward the west it lessens.

[duris]

From New Orleans AFD:

NO SHORTAGE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS MORNING. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING ALREADY
MAKING ITSELF KNOWN HERE WITH SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
THE AXIS IS EASY TO FIND THIS MORNING BY JUST LOOKING AT THE WIND
FIELD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ADJACENT SHORELINE. WINDS VEER
FROM NE TO SE ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS LOCATED FROM DESTIN BEACH FLA
SOUTHWARD WELL INTO THE GULF.

IT IS AN INTERESTING AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED BUT JET
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A PROBLEM AS TIME INCREASES FOR THE
SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
WEST AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST TX RIDGES
EASTWARD...FORCING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE WINDS AT JET
LEVEL TO INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KNOTS OVER THE TROPICAL GULF SYSTEM
MAKING THE ATMOS VERY INHOSPITABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF ITS
DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL SUPPORT AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY TRANSPORTING IT NORTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS DEEP MOISTURE REGIME SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAKE HOLD STARTING LATE MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT CLOSES IN ON THE
GULF COAST...IT WILL ALSO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR A LOT OF THIS
MOISTURE.

SOME GUIDANCE NUMBERS COMING IN ARE HAVING THE FRONT STALL OVER THE
AREA AS A LOW FORMS NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. IF THIS HAPPENS...TWO
OR THREE DAYS OF PERSISTANT HEAVY RAIN DAYS MAY DEVELOP STARTING
TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.

[Steve]

>>SOME GUIDANCE NUMBERS COMING IN ARE HAVING THE FRONT STALL OVER THE
AREA AS A LOW FORMS NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

That looks a little more sensible. Possibly a gulf low forming ahead of the frontal boundary and then moving off to the North or Northeast ahead of it. Whether said low would be tropical or not remains to be seen. However, I did see a few coastal thunderstorms and several periods of raindrops on my way into work this morning. We're under a different weather regime now.

Steve

[duris]

We're under a different weather regime now.

Yep, had a little of the "Devil's beating his wife" rain on the way in this morning. Good news is the change doesn't it doesn't seem to involve me watering my yard. It's amazing how seeing how much landscaping replacement costs will make you happy for rain.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Cold front to approach later...
if shear lessens which it may over pockets of the
gulf in a niche between the front and the ridge to the east...
we could see a tropical depression form IMO.
As for path...the cold front
digging down would result in a N to
NE acceleration of the system...and no
this is not a wishcast LOL.

[Sanibel]

This passed over us last evening around dusk. It had a strong easterly wind (instead of the west seabreeze) and tropical rain. When it passed overhead I thought to myself, "this is stronger than normal, something could be developing". Watch this out in the Gulf west of us. It seems to be hanging together.

(I'm currently on malfunctioning dial-up, so I can't see any loops) (Not that anyone listens to me anyway )

[caneman]

Sanibel,
Know what you mean. Same thing hapened here last night, it got very gusty with no storm in sight. Really looks like it is trying to get going. This keeps up an invest will be needed soon. Best guess where something might pop is 26 and 86. Anone else care to guess?

[JonathanBelles]

This passed over us last evening around dusk. It had a strong easterly wind (instead of the west seabreeze) and tropical rain. When it passed overhead I thought to myself, "this is stronger than normal, something could be developing". Watch this out in the Gulf west of us. It seems to be hanging together.

(I'm currently on malfunctioning dial-up, so I can't see any loops) (Not that anyone listens to me anyway )

Thats happened two days in a row. Both days the rain went to my south :/

[miamicanes177]

12z GFS creates a more concentrated area of showers/thunderstorms making landfall in the norther GOM on tuesday.

[punkyg]

So how does this system look now?

[chadtm80]

So how does this system look now?

punky before you post.. Read and look at sats for yourself

[mattpetre]

OK, so I no longer think this has a chance of being Gabrielle, but I do still believe it has a chance at acquiring a name. Seems like the ULL to its east could help feed an anticyclone at some point and shear will become less as it continues Westward so the main ingredient will be to find an LLC in there at some point. If we get any surface circulation at all, I think this thing will wind up getting a name. My amateur, unreliable opinion.

[Brent]

This area is looking quite interesting, we may have Humberto if this trend persists(I think 99L will be Gabrielle).

[gatorcane]

okay this area has officially peaked my interests. With SSTs close to 85-88F in the loop current we need to watch this.....

is it on the NRL yet?

[Stormcenter]

Now this area is starting to get my attention.
There nothing organized there yet but some
potential down the road. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[HeeBGBz]

It has definitely grown a lot bigger since yesterday morning. We are supposed to get some rain from this wave this weekend, but so far we had one squally rain come through and gone. Clouds are building, but I think the bigger part of the weather is now further south and building up. I've heard two directions it was supposed to take. Some say Texas, some say north to northeast, but both say Tuesday. Don't know which it will be.

[Stormcenter]

It has definitely grown a lot bigger since yesterday morning. We are supposed to get some rain from this wave this weekend, but so far we had one squally rain come through and gone. Clouds are building, but I think the bigger part of the weather is now further south and building up. I've heard two directions it was supposed to take. Some say Texas, some say north to northeast, but both say Tuesday. Don't know which it will be.

Someone posted a NWC discussion this morning stating that a low would form on the tail end
of a stalled front in the GOM next Tuesday. Now whether or not it is a tropical low remains
to be seen.

[lrak]

Looks like something at about 25n 86w

Need waves!