Wave E of the Leewards

[boca]

Looks like its barely moving west.I think the SE US will be protected because a cold front will be moving into the SE US be late next week according to Miami NWS.

[punkyg]

Punkyg question time!
Hi yall i'm back to ask questions, but this time its about this wave.

1.Do you think this wave will move straight west like the other storms.

2.will this storm move WNW over time.

3.Can this wave develop with the conditions its in right now?

Thats all the questions i have right now. i hope i can get some answers soon.

[Gustywind]

Hurakan wrote:"Maybe Gordon all over again!!!

Remember last year how Gordon came sort of out of nowhere!!"
Yeah guy , something to watch, i don't like this popping trend near my island....we will see what happens in the next couple of hours, if this trends continues we could have some tstorms activity tommorow...

[gatorcane]

looks like it is ex 98L...is it not?

Looks interesting this morning....

[DESTRUCTION5]

looks like it is ex 98L...is it not?

Looks interesting this morning....

I said it would light up like a Xmas tree at 50-55W.Interesting week ahead for E Atlantic..

[Gustywind]

yeah Gatorcane convection still on the increase...

[windstorm99]

Upper level winds from what ive seen are favorable all the way to the florida coast if it ever makes it that far.

[perk]

Is'nt this the wave that JB mentioned could be in the GOM next week.

[boca]

If this becomes an invest it will be interesting where the track will be.The 06Z GFS has it coming to Florida, But a cold front is also in the mix. What are you feelings on this?

[DESTRUCTION5]

If this becomes an invest it will be interesting where the track will be.The 06Z GFS has it coming to Florida, But a cold front is also in the mix. What are you feelings on this?

Call me crazy but i think we can have a named storm of some sort in the southern Bahamas early next week...

[gatorcane]

Remember South Florida is in the primetime month for hits from the east....and this thing is looking interesting.

Boca -- that cold front is going to pull out by the time this area gets far enough west.

So I think if it develops it does have a shot of moving WNW for a while...

[Recurve]

Where is this in relation to the Herbert (?) box? I forget.

[gatorcane]

I am not getting too excited or ancy...

but things have been unusually quiet for South Florida this hurricane season...it wouldn't surprise me if finally we get into some kind of cone, although it doesn't mean we will get hit.

[cheezyWXguy]

looks like it is ex 98L...is it not?

Looks interesting this morning....

I said it would light up like a Xmas tree at 50-55W.Interesting week ahead for E Atlantic..

JB said that too, a few days ago

[boca]

Where is this in relation to the Herbert (?) box? I forget.

I think the Hurbert box is just north of PR at 20N

[DESTRUCTION5]

looks like it is ex 98L...is it not?

Looks interesting this morning....

I said it would light up like a Xmas tree at 50-55W.Interesting week ahead for E Atlantic..

JB said that too, a few days ago

Great its gonna fizzle for sure now..

[cycloneye]

I remember that the wave in 2004 that eventually became Tropical Storm Jeanne,and later hurricane before it formed into a TD was a wimpy wave with almost no convection but slowly became better organized with convection building near the Leewards,and after that was classified as a TD and one day later a Tropical Storm that crossed Puerto Rico as a 70 mph storm.I am not saying this wave will do the same,but it is interesting that this current wave was almost void of convection from the moment it emerged Africa until today that convection has increased.

[boca]

Their is a trough about 300 miles north of this system. The trough is moving south faster than this system moving west.I'm curious if the trough will have affects on its steering currents.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Recurve]

To answer my own question, found this on hurricanecity.com:

Many people visiting hurricanecity have asked "what is this hebert box I keep hearing about"?. The HebertBox was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert (pictured at left). This former nws & nhc forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.

[DESTRUCTION5]

To answer my own question, found this on hurricanecity.com:

Many people visiting hurricanecity have asked "what is this hebert box I keep hearing about"?. The HebertBox was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert (pictured at left). This former nws & nhc forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.

Key is it has to be a storm 1st Recurve..