Advisories and Warnings Issues

[artist]

I understand what you are saying dtrain. I am not saying for all. I am saying maybe it would be good for those landfalling early mornings only in this type of case- a sever tropical storm. Unfortunately there are just so many that do not hear a word unless hurricane is mentioned. This would help those to be at least prepared if they suddenly wake up to no power, screaming winds, etc. Maybe they got some water, made ice, got gas, etc. if they hear that H word. It is the society that it is. Only the h word can ever get some to make a move. I myself would have had those things, because I am used to hurricanes now.

I don't know how many times I hear people on here stating they are so tired of the hype by the media, yet if they don't hype for an incoming storm then alot of people won't prepare. That makes it very unfortunate and difficult for all local, state, and federal officials when people don't prepare. Maybe the media needs to stress over and over - be prepared whether it is just a tropical storm or a low grade hurricane. I just wish there were easy answers. If the local media doesn't make a big deal out of it then many will not listen and will not be prepared.

[Derek Ortt]

IMO, the criticism of NHC is not totally warranted, and I definately am not going to join in the criticim party (those in glass houses are the last to throw stones and my forecasts for Humberto were brutal)

Maybe at 7 P.M., a watch could have been hoisted (it's when i recommended the TS warning/hurriane watch... which even I should have done 3 hours before).

However, residents were warned to expect TS winds at 10 A.M. and storng TS widns with hurrican gusts at 4 p.m. That 4 p.m. provided about 8 hours of lead time, which should have been enough time to prepare, EXCEPT for those at High Island, where 12-24 would have been better. That said, people in a strong TS should not be going outside into the storm, and not be taking it lightly because it was supposed to strike 5-10 mph shy of hurricane status.

Maybe TS warnings need to be replaced by gale and storm warnings to differentiate between the weak and strong TS

[Chacor]

Maybe TS warnings need to be replaced by gale and storm warnings to differentiate between the weak and strong TS

That would just confuse people who aren't mariners further, as they will treat "storm" to mean "tropical storm" (even though it means 48-63 kt winds). In the WPac and Southwest Indian Ocean they have two categories of tropical storms, so maybe that's an alternative, splitting TS up in the Atlantic into Moderate TS/Severe TS.

[fci]

I grew up when there was no such thing as a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning.

When they started the use of them I found it a little silly.
Who really needs a "watch" for winds of 40 or so.
It is like a nasty thunderstorm that is quite frequent in hurricane prone areas.

Since a TS Watch/Warning is for winds of 40-73, it is quite a range.
40= no real damage
70= will cause damage.

So, I agree with Derek that there should be Gale and Storm warnings.
Gale warnings are not particularly worriesome but I would pay more heed to a Storm Warning.
At least the expected damage range is cut down.

[dtrain44]

I think breaking the advisories up too much runs a risk of false precision. If we're forecasting a 50 mph tropical storm, is that a gale or storm warning? Given the inherent uncertainty in intensity forecasts, I'd rather leave one tropical storm warning if we're going to have any.

Artist, I hear what you're saying about the difficulty of getting people to prepare. I see the same thing around here: the SPC hoists a high risk area (which happens 1-3 times per year in the Norman area), tornadoes are popping everywhere, and people are often shocked when it gets serious. I think the best thing to do is to educate people to take precautions for any landfalling tropical system: a 40 mph TS isn't going to do much other than flood and spawn a few tornadoes, but I know that I'd want to prepare if I were in the path of it. A few precautions never hurt anyone and I think the best way to get those to happen is to get people preparing for every tropical system as though it would be a Humberto type event.

Now, for evacuation decisions, we've got to make some additional distinctions. But I don't see anything fundamentally wrong with treating every TS as though it were a Cat 1 hurricane: conditions in your area might well be that bad at some point....

[DESTRUCTION5]

To just add a short comment I could go either way here but my pro for keeping TS warnings would be for Saftey on the HWY..Kids on buses going over a bridge or overpass could pose a serious danger..Or any high profile vehicle for that matter with winds in excess of 40 MPH..

[Derek Ortt]

I don't think there would be as much confusion as one may think, Chacor

TS watches and warnings were never issued until 1987. Only gale warnings were issued prior to that date

It would require some public education for people to realise that a storm warning was for winds of 55-73 mph sustained. However, if they understood that, maybe additional precautions would have been made with Humberto (like the evacuation of mobile homes)

[WindRunner]

And that's the real problem. Getting the public of today to change. If we could do that, then a simpler solution to all of this would be to just make the TPC a touch less conservative with their use of watches . . . by definition they're for the possibility (not certainty), but yet the TPC seems to typically use them as an advance notice of a warning, and possibly to cover some limited error in their track forecasts. NOTHING is done to cover possible errors in intensity forecasts because this would (supposedly) affect the public perception of TPC and the accuracy of forecasts and nonsense like that. Yet, going back to the SPC example, no one fully expects to get a thunderstorm every time they get put under a WW . . . so why should the same be expected of tropical watches?

Public education is the real culprit here . . . if a valid campaign can be staged, the current system could work perfectly well. I think the gale/storm warnings or TS/STS (severe, not subtropical) system can be implemented just as effectively (and, since either would be a complete change, might even make the public education a touch easier) as what we have now.


As for blame in Humberto . . . well, there are a lot of places where things might have gone wrong (I can think of four specific ones personally), but I doubt any blame will be passed off. It probably doesn't need to be, either, though. The fact is that it happened, and it probably should have been handled differently. If people start trying to dig deeper into it, I don't know how much more the internal structure of TPC could stand . . .

[dtrain44]

Windrunner, I think that's a legitimate point. Watches are generally areas where conditions are possible and there's a decent chance of significant activity, but not necessarily at one point. I think that most people are familiar enough with the difference between a watch and a warning that this is a potential way to signal things.

Derek, I didn't know that TS advisories were that new. Do you know how preparation for high end TS events went before the switch in 1987?

[Derek Ortt]

I'd have to ask how high end TSs were treated before 1987

[fci]

I remember getting Gale Warnings and a Hurricane Watch.

Not really a lot different than TS Warnings.

I do not ever remember hearing of a "Storm Warning" rather than Gale although I recollect the term "Whole Gale" which I think was the higher end of a Gale Warning.