Disturbed weather in Western Atlantic

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

1. The circulation looks stronger and there is some
convection. If the circulation and convection persist
with it moving into a more favorable environment
I think a tropical depression could form. Those waters
are very warm, and shear is low, and it could
strengthen rapidly.

2. BUT then again it could dissipate
also for several reasons including once the ULL moves
away.

[destruction92]

it does look like some mid-level spin.....maybe trying to get to the surface....I have heard of ULL doing this is the past but have never seen it happen myself...

already forgot humberto?...it developed from the remains of a ULL that was said to be unlikely to develop.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Since this could either develop or dissipate...I was wondering-
What is everybody's opinion on this system?

[Brent]

Since this could either develop or dissipate...I was wondering-
What is everybody's opinion on this system?

Right now I'm a lot more interested in the SW Caribbean, but Humberto snuck up on everyone so I'll be watching it. Afterall, it is the peak of the season.

[punkyg]

Well do you think this is getting better organized?
cause i certainly do think it is.
this are sure didn't show any signs of a mid lvl circulation until today am i right. and now even on this still pic you can see the swirl.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg
I expect an invest maybe on tuesday unless its better organized before then.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB's latest post indicates that he thinks this system may have a chance of development as it enters the SE GOM by early next week. He thinks the biggest threat will still be the caribbean storm, but he said that this very well may become something tropical or subtropical. We shall see..

[LarryWx]

This clearly has a circulation, but there's no telling whether there's any near the surface as of now. IF there actually is a LLC, the model consensus doesn't properly show it, and, therefore, would be initialized pretty poorly as far as that feature is concerned. From the standpoint of any potential SE coastline threat next week, I feel that what this feature does over the next couple of days is quite important since I feel that the overall pattern (persistent and strengthening surface as well as upper level high pressure just to the north, above average SST's in mid-Sep., lots of QPF for next week near the SE coast) raises the threat of a direct tropical landfall to well above average next week even for this time of year. IF there actually is a LLC or if one will evolve soon, then I feel the models are underdoing the SE coastal threat quite a bit. I'll likely be watching this area like a hawk for the next couple of days. An important factor imho is what happens in the western Caribbean. IF that system develops significantly, then I feel the odds would favor less development of this feature and vice-versa due to competition for energy since they'd be fairly close together.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID CENTERED ABOUT 405 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CENTERED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA HAVE DIMINISHED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

Next!

[LarryWx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA HAVE DIMINISHED.

Next!

Whereas they have clearly diminished, I still see evidence of a circ. based on a continued spin of clouds. Because the clouds are so dimly shaded, they appear to me to be pretty low level based although they may not yet be surface based. Note that the NHC didn't say they don't expect development here. I'm by no means yet assuming nothing tropical can come out of this area. This needs to be watched imho especially while there's still a fairly low level circ.

[xironman]

The weak circulation is still there this morning http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-ir2.html at 24N 72W. The shear seems south and west at this point with the ULL. Though with little convection its prospects do not seem good.

[LarryWx]

The weak circulation is still there this morning http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-ir2.html at 24N 72W.

I concur 100%. We'll hopefully have a better idea soon whether or not it has yet reached near the surface. Regardless, this little booger needs to be monitored for the SE coast as long as it has a good circ. It is still moving WNW.

[LarryWx]

Although I feel the NAM is generally a poor model for tropical cyclone predictions, I do feel the latest run is worth a mention since it shows what COULD happen if things come together...i.e., a tropical cyclone hit on the SE coast. The 12Z Sun 9/16 run is doing the following:

1) taking that energy that is currently north of Hisp. and bringing it WNW to the N Bahamas Tue evening

2) combining it with the energy/moisture that earlier had moved off the SE US to form a closed surface low (1008 mb) Tue night

3) moving that closed surface low NNW, NW, and then WNW to ~100 miles ESE of Jacksonville as of 8 PM Wed. while strengthening it to 1004 mb.

4) As of 8 PM Wed., 850 winds (5K ft) are as high as ~50 knots (57 mph) out of the east about 100-150 miles offshore from the FL/GA line with the strong winds moving closer to the coastline. So, this would be either a tropical or subtropical storm at that time as depicted. Heavy rains are just onshore NE FL and are just offshore GA/S SC moving west toward those areas. The center itself is aiming for a NE FL landfall late evening Wed.

My take is that the weaker the Caribbean low, the more energy available for this SE US feature to develop. I feel that the SE US coast (especially central FL-SC) should closely monitor this possible development for a potential significant midweek impact, especially if that Caribbean low doesn't develop too quickly/strongly, as I feel this WOULD catch many by surprise since it would be less than 4 days away and many are focusing much more on the Caribbean potential. The pattern is ripe for the risk of a tropical cyclone landfall on the SE coast as I've been mentioning the last few days. I'm not at all saying it is anywhere close to definite, but I'm saying there is a realistic enough chance that shouldn't be ignored at this time even though this is the only model currently depicting such a possibility..

[LarryWx]

Well, I can no longer say that the very unreliable NAM is the only model currently showing a tropicalish surface low hitting NE FL this week. Now, the very unreliable CDN (12Z Sun 9/16 run) is doing something similar, but a day later (Thu night) and slightly weaker (~1006 mb instead of 1004 mb). Two bad models supporting my idea. More food for thought. Any opinions?

[AJC3]

Well, I can no longer say that the very unreliable NAM is the only model currently showing a tropicalish surface low hitting NE FL this week. Now, the very unreliable CDN (12Z Sun 9/16 run) is doing something similar, but a day later (Thu night) and slightly weaker (~1006 mb instead of 1004 mb). Two bad models supporting my idea. More food for thought. Any opinions?

I've been off work for a few days, so I don't have the high-res stuff to look at...but wasn't the model guidance suggesting that any development of a low or inverted trough near FL was going to be more related to the cold-core cutoff low that has been consistently forecast by the global models to form near the SE coast (or perhaps over GA/FL)?

Or are you talking about something completely different here?

[LarryWx]

I've been off work for a few days, so I don't have the high-res stuff to look at...but wasn't the model guidance suggesting that any development of a low or inverted trough near FL was going to be more related to the cold-core cutoff low that has been consistently forecast by the global models to form near the SE coast (or perhaps over GA/FL)?

Or are you talking about something completely different here?

No, this is pretty much the same one.

[xironman]

I think the shear would just be to wild at the beginning of week for anything really tropical http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSTROPATL_12z/gfs48.html.

This is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. These are the random thoughts of a rank amateur and should be source of utter amusement. They are just the opinion of this poster and are not be backed by sound meteorological data.

Seems to me the only way this little dust devil I have been tracking has a chance is if it happens to track due west to the straits and keep popping enough thunderstorms to stay alive. Once there on Wednesday http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSTROPATL_12z/gfs72.html things aren't quite so bad it actually becomes a system in the gulf http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSTROPATL_12z/gfs96.html. That's my story and I'm sticking with it.

Edited to fix links

[ROCK]

Well, I can no longer say that the very unreliable NAM is the only model currently showing a tropicalish surface low hitting NE FL this week. Now, the very unreliable CDN (12Z Sun 9/16 run) is doing something similar, but a day later (Thu night) and slightly weaker (~1006 mb instead of 1004 mb). Two bad models supporting my idea. More food for thought. Any opinions?

I've been off work for a few days, so I don't have the high-res stuff to look at...but wasn't the model guidance suggesting that any development of a low or inverted trough near FL was going to be more related to the cold-core cutoff low that has been consistently forecast by the global models to form near the SE coast (or perhaps over GA/FL)?

Or are you talking about something completely different here?

\


CMC has been showing this the last few runs now....

[xironman]

Now, the very unreliable CDN (12Z Sun 9/16 run) is doing something similar, but a day later (Thu night) and slightly weaker (~1006 mb instead of 1004 mb).

The CMC is now further south with a decent sized system http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007091700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=084hr. Also the swirl that was North of Hispaniola is now a barely detectable naked swirl in the Bahamas, about 75W, 25N. It can be seen by zooming in on this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html at those coordinates, as long as you have sharp eyesight and a vivid imagination.