Western Caribbean Thread

[flwxwatcher]

The EURO has been hinting at something coming into the Gulf the last few runs and todays 12Z run continues to hint at something in the Gulf later next week. We will see.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7100912!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7100912!!/

[cycloneye]

At least,this has to be mentioned in the next TWOS not for development reasons,but for the potential for some squally weather for the islands.

[Gustywind]

At least,this has to be mentioned in the next TWOS not for development reasons,but for the potential for some squally weather for the islands.

Absolutely Cycloneye hope in the next TWO NHC will put it , because given the forecasts we should experience something like that...seems that convection is slighty increasing given the latest sat pic 8pm from Meteo-France, moreover they expect nice amounts of 60-80mm of water in some areas ....not so dry too

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg 8pm

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100018
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 53W AND 58W ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 38W AND 60W.

[Sanibel]

This trough has been lingering for nearly a week now. Even though 94L has drifted over Yucatan I think we are going to see something weird here where it develops anyway because of the shear amount of trough hanging over the area. I'd be surprised if nothing came of this and it dissipated. Too much cloud over too much energy.

[Vortex]

Tuesday Evening Thoughts...

The wave located just E of the Leewards is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms. My concern is this area continues westward and may find itself in the western carribean in about 4-5 days. This is what's needed to kickstart the area over the western carribean.....Either way with low pressurres and additional energy arriving on the scene this weekend the stage is set for a couple top draft picks

[Vortex]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100018
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 53W AND 58W ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 38W AND 60W.

*By the way Gusty you sure look like your in for some active weather the next 48 hours....

[gatorcane]

Here is the latest. Had this season been more active for US interests and/or we had more invests not getting sheared to death north of 15N in the Atlantic, this thing would be getting more attention....

My thought is that it is something to watch but development is not likely until maybe this wave reaches the western Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100018
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 53W AND 58W ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 38W AND 60W.

*By the way Gusty you sure look like your in for some active weather the next 48 hours....

Agree with you yeah absolutely Vortex i tkink that tommorow morning we will begin to feel the first effects of this system we can expect like you clearly said "active weather" but whereas hope nothing too serious just a moderate to maybe strong wave?...but i usual we continue to monitor this system in case of , and looking at the latest pics heathly system with copious amouns of convection continuing to slighlty pop and heading near Martiniqua and my island of Guadeloupe.

[Vortex]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100018
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 53W AND 58W ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 38W AND 60W.

*By the way Gusty you sure look like your in for some active weather the next 48 hours....

Agree with you yeah absolutely Vortex i tkink that tommorow morning we will begin to feel the first effects of this system we can expect like you clearly said "active weather" but whereas hope nothing too serious just a moderate to maybe strong wave?...but i usual we continue to monitor this system in case of , and looking at the latest pics heathly system with copious amouns of convection continuing to slighlty pop and heading near Martiniqua and my island of Guadeloupe.

Keep us posted on changing weather...

[Vortex]

Martinique radar beginning to fill in....

Maybe some lightning as well...

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[Vortex]

00Z GFS 10/10

Energetic Wave passes through carribean and spawns low pressure on the southern end of axis over the SW carribean at

H+102

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

H+108
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

H+114
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

H+120

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

H+156 Still there spinning

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

H+252 After sitting down there for days begins to head north and intensify

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

[Vortex]

Nogaps 00Z 10/10

Active wave over lesser antilles and adjacent waters at H+24

H+36 heavy convection over Lesser antilles and E Carribean sea

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=036

H+48 heavy convection extending from PR SE to over the E Carrbean
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=048

[caneman]

Have been watching it since last night and it has persisted with deep convection. Pressure fairly low at 1006 and 1007 at Jamaica and Cayman this morning. Each Islands is also showing West winds. Quikscat shows nothing yet. What are your thoughts?

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU |

[top]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 100934
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST WED OCT 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY A LOW FORMS EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN OUT
OF A SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF OUT OF
THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS LOW MOVES WEST
TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE A 50-60 KNOT
JET FORMS ON ITS NORTHWEST SIDE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS JET
PASSES OVER PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF THIS LOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT. TROUGHING QUICKLY RE-FORMS
EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEAKER JET OF
SOUTHBOUND AIR CROSSES PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 24 NORTH 40 WEST WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY THE RIDGE CROSSES OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE HIGH MOVES DUE WEST NORTH OF THE AREA...FINALLY
SETTLING OVER CUBA ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE
HIGH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARRIVES IN PUERTO RICO THE
FOLLOWING SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EAST OF FLORIDA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE
CARIBBEAN AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS TO BE DIVIDED INTO TWO PULSES
WHICH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON
FRIDAY MUCH DRIER AIR WILL RIDE INTO THE AREA ON THE WINDS OVER
THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVED INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM CANADA. THIS EAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS A FEW CELLS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THESE ARE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
NORTHWEST IN THE ATLANTIC. BUT EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR IS MANIFEST
IN THE GREATLY REDUCED ACTIVITY TONIGHT FROM LAST NIGHT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A DRY SLOT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN
THE CONVECTION BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND PUERTO RICO. THE NAM12
SHOWS THE BEST MOISTURE ARRIVING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES FROM 00-03Z THURSDAY. MOISTURE THEN IMPROVES
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE EASTERN END OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT GOOD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A SECOND BAND OF MOISTURE ROLLS
THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD...THE NAM HINTS AT SOME
TRIGGERS IN THE FORM OF BANDS OR CONVERGENCE THAT MAY MAKE
THURSDAY NIGHTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS HEALTHY AS TONIGHTS.
WHILE THE GFS GRADUALLY DRIES OUT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
FRIDAY THE NAM HOLDS GOOD MOISTURE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND
THEN BRINGS IN A MORE ABRUPT DRYING OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY. BUT BOTH
MODELS AGREE ON A MUCH DRIER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NAM
ALSO BRINGS UP STRONGER WINDS AT 850 MB...ALMOST BY A FACTOR OF
TWO. BUT THE DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS SEEMS TO CORRESPOND WITH
THE ENTRY OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AROUND ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
WESTWARD MIGRATING LOW PRESSURE POISED JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. SO HAVE ACCEPTED THE CONTINUING
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING ON SATURDAY THOUGH AM
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST A MARKED INCREASE IN THE WINDS AT THIS TIME. ON
SUNDAY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR SIGNS THAT IT COULD ENHANCE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY BE ONLY
MODERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND SUNDAY...FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-BOUND WINDS BECOME MUCH MORE INDISTINCT. THE
GFS BEGINS TO SPIN UP A LOW NEAR 11 NORTH 47 WEST ON SUNDAY...
WHICH HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE WEEK AND PASSES CLOSE BY 20 NORTH
AND 60 WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THEREFORE
THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS IN THE WEST HALF OF PUERTO RICO...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
HEAVY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

[Gustywind]

Latest from Meteo-France 7AM
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Hi everbody, the weather has changed a little here for the moment liltle drizzle, numerous lows clouds , dark and grey sky ...i have received a first round of showers early this morning at 3am during 15 minutes ...and thunder was roaring nicely but nothing too serious...but the atmosphere is very moist and Meteo-France expect a twave moderate to active crossing the island...we should experience another round of showers and thunderstroms more conssitent this afternoon but really tonight! Note that Meteo-France has maintained the yellow alert for Martiniqua but let it green in Guadeloupe meaning no high risks here but as usual Meteo-France continue to monitor the system and will put a yellow alert if things changed in Guadeloupe. Given the lastest sat pic the second part of the system further east seems more active and in my humble opinion the weather will definitely deteriorate this afternoon maybe the "worst" of this system i will keep you informed to see how the things are evolving here in Guadeloupe!

[Gustywind]

AFDSJU |

[top]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 100934
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST WED OCT 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY A LOW FORMS EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN OUT
OF A SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF OUT OF
THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS LOW MOVES WEST
TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE A 50-60 KNOT
JET FORMS ON ITS NORTHWEST SIDE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS JET
PASSES OVER PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF THIS LOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT. TROUGHING QUICKLY RE-FORMS
EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEAKER JET OF
SOUTHBOUND AIR CROSSES PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 24 NORTH 40 WEST WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY THE RIDGE CROSSES OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE HIGH MOVES DUE WEST NORTH OF THE AREA...FINALLY
SETTLING OVER CUBA ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE
HIGH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARRIVES IN PUERTO RICO THE
FOLLOWING SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EAST OF FLORIDA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE
CARIBBEAN AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS TO BE DIVIDED INTO TWO PULSES
WHICH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON
FRIDAY MUCH DRIER AIR WILL RIDE INTO THE AREA ON THE WINDS OVER
THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVED INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM CANADA. THIS EAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS A FEW CELLS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THESE ARE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
NORTHWEST IN THE ATLANTIC. BUT EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR IS MANIFEST
IN THE GREATLY REDUCED ACTIVITY TONIGHT FROM LAST NIGHT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A DRY SLOT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN
THE CONVECTION BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND PUERTO RICO. THE NAM12
SHOWS THE BEST MOISTURE ARRIVING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES FROM 00-03Z THURSDAY. MOISTURE THEN IMPROVES
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE EASTERN END OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT GOOD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A SECOND BAND OF MOISTURE ROLLS
THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD...THE NAM HINTS AT SOME
TRIGGERS IN THE FORM OF BANDS OR CONVERGENCE THAT MAY MAKE
THURSDAY NIGHTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS HEALTHY AS TONIGHTS.
WHILE THE GFS GRADUALLY DRIES OUT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
FRIDAY THE NAM HOLDS GOOD MOISTURE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND
THEN BRINGS IN A MORE ABRUPT DRYING OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY. BUT BOTH
MODELS AGREE ON A MUCH DRIER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NAM
ALSO BRINGS UP STRONGER WINDS AT 850 MB...ALMOST BY A FACTOR OF
TWO. BUT THE DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS SEEMS TO CORRESPOND WITH
THE ENTRY OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AROUND ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
WESTWARD MIGRATING LOW PRESSURE POISED JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. SO HAVE ACCEPTED THE CONTINUING
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING ON SATURDAY THOUGH AM
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST A MARKED INCREASE IN THE WINDS AT THIS TIME. ON
SUNDAY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR SIGNS THAT IT COULD ENHANCE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY BE ONLY
MODERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND SUNDAY...FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-BOUND WINDS BECOME MUCH MORE INDISTINCT. THE
GFS BEGINS TO SPIN UP A LOW NEAR 11 NORTH 47 WEST ON SUNDAY...
WHICH HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE WEEK AND PASSES CLOSE BY 20 NORTH
AND 60 WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THEREFORE
THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS IN THE WEST HALF OF PUERTO RICO...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
HEAVY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

Interresting but i don't like the last paragraph GFS tring to spin a low...hope Mother Nature doesn't have things in store for the islands and it's pure a low confidence run for the GFS, but we can't put apart the fact that convective should occur near on the islands in the next couple of days... we wil see my friends!

[caribepr]

Looks like we're in for some interesting weather!
Thanks for all the info and pics.

[boca]

Looks like a low within the trough in the Caribbean. Its moving ENE and should give Jamaica a good drenching. Thats about it though. Their no mechanism that I see in the models to pull all this tropical moisture northward where we really ned the rain.