Convection in GOM

[HeeBGBz]

We are forecast to have strong storms tonight and big rain tomorrow and tomorrow night. Gonna be a soggy day off for me.

[GCANE]

The GOM looks interesting on WV Imagery this morning. A broad Upper-Level High can be seen rotating with some convection firing under it at about 25N 93W. UL winds are about 10 knots over the convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Shear is dropping in the GOM:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

The eastern half of the GOM is forecast to go to nearly zero shear in the next 48 hours while the western-half will see increased shear as a front moves into the GOM.

The front will be pushing through from west to east over the next couple days with moist, unstable air ahead of it.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98f.gif

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

So, I am watching for convection to fire up in the middle of the GOM for the next 48 hours and push east to the west-coast of Florida. If this will be a tropical system remains to be seen. I am keeping an eye on the buoys for any drops in surface pressure:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml