Long Range Models

[tailgater]

00z 6-29 GFS and CMC, The 00z 29 UKM starting to show a little something
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... 0/slp0.png
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... 0/slp0.png

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/20 ... 0/slp0.png

[Meso]

The CMC is now developing the low rather rapidly too and and moving West.Wave moves off Africa around 48 hours per the CMC.

UKMET also now developing a weak low then opening it up to a wave, but showing a lot more than previously.

EURO shows a low then opening to a strong open wave and moving it Westward too.

GFS over the past 2 runs have not showed the rapid development but it does show a strong open wave moving west, which could be a worse situation should conditions be favourable when it reaches the Caribbean

Everything is starting to come together with 4 models now showing something,though not sure what.May just be a very strong wave with the potential for future development.There is a lot of moisture currently over West Africa

[Meso]

It's back with this GFS run along with a small low near the Yucatan




168 hours




288 hours



384 hours heh

[Extremeweatherguy]

Still looking like we may see an interesting July based on the latest model runs. We will just have to wait and see how this all decides to play out...

[cycloneye]

Lets see what this 12z run of the GFS does with the East Atlantic low.

54 hours

96 hours Very weak run so far.

108 hours There is anything here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the 12z GFS loop...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

CMC is very agressive with the East Atlantic system.

[Kennethb]

Generally too early in the season to look out in the Atlantic Ocean for development.

However with a trough trying to make its way through the south, perhaps into the Norther GOM and with the MJO making its way through the GOM over the next few weeks, I would not be surprised to see some development over the GOM or perhaps Atlantic coast the first few weeks of July.

[NDG]

Yeah, I would not be surprised something tries to develop in the GOM or off the SE Atlantic coast the first week of July.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO

Shows the East Atlantic low moving west passing 40w.

[NDG]

Click here to see 12z euro with a better angle of the strong wave or weak low move straightwestward across the Atlantic

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS...

108 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108m.gif

120 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

132 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132m.gif

144 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144m.gif

156 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156m.gif

168 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168m.gif

180 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180m.gif

Full 384 hr loop: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

18z GFS...

108 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108m.gif

120 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

132 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132m.gif

144 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144m.gif

156 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156m.gif

168 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168m.gif

180 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180m.gif

Full 384 hr loop: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Interesting run here which shows a tropical low moving westbound through the MDR and making it west of
40W. But note the monster Upper-level low around 27N 43W that is currently stationary. That Upper-level
low is ushering in strong wind shear from the west. Unless it moves out or weakens the GFS low developing
is not likely.

[Vortex]

It is surely something that "bears" watching later this week. When we have several models including the EC join in I tend to get very interested. Maybe the weekend of the 4th will have an xtra bang to it

[gatorcane]

It is surely something that "bears" watching later this week. When we have several models including the EC join in I tend to get very interested. Maybe the weekend of the 4th will have an xtra bang to it

The earliest Cape Verde system to form originated from a tropical wave that moved off of Africa on July 1st, 1996. It later become Hurricane Bertha:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha_(1996)

[canegrl04]

It is surely something that "bears" watching later this week. When we have several models including the EC join in I tend to get very interested. Maybe the weekend of the 4th will have an xtra bang to it

The earliest Cape Verde system to form originated from a tropical wave that moved off of Africa on July 1st, 1996. It later become Hurricane Bertha:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha_(1996)

Wouldn't that be freaky if we got alittle deja vu?

[Gustywind]

It is surely something that "bears" watching later this week. When we have several models including the EC join in I tend to get very interested. Maybe the weekend of the 4th will have an xtra bang to it

The earliest Cape Verde system to form originated from a tropical wave that moved off of Africa on July 1st, 1996. It later become Hurricane Bertha:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha_(1996)

Wouldn't that be freaky if we got alittle deja vu?

Don't want to" le revoir encore" !

[NDG]

Interesting run here which shows a tropical low moving westbound through the MDR and making it west of
40W. But note the monster Upper-level low around 27N 43W that is currently stationary. That Upper-level
low is ushering in strong wind shear from the west. Unless it moves out or weakens the GFS low developing
is not likely.

Gatorcane, noticed that the shear across the tropical Atlantic is well above the 15th latitude & 40th longitude, so if the disturbance stays below 15N it will have no problems with shear even if the ULL that you pointed out stays stationary, it could have some problems with shear but not until it approaches the greater Antilles, which by even then shear could decrease some as indicated by the euro in the eastern Caribbean.

[Vortex]

Looking at much of the medium range guidance and the forecasted synoptic environment this potential "system" has a shot at development. This goes against climatology for the most part. The characteristics are similar in what gave birth to Bertha in early July in the 90's. Regardless, I think it's likely a srong wave/low will approach the antilles in 7-10 days. Lets se if overnight guidance remains somewhat consistent to prior runs.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Loop of the 00z GFS run..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

**This run is still in the process of uploading (as of 12:15am EDT), so the loop may not be 100% complete quite yet**