Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

[Stormcenter]

Wow, the CMC is very interesting. It has two systems east of the islands, Hurricane Bertha in the central Atlantic, and it also has a weak system near the panhandle of Florida.

Please consider the source when looking at anything coming from the CMC that hasn't actually materialized. It had N.O. getting hit directly twice last year.

[KWT]

Yep CMC can overdo things...however nearly all the models so far on the 12z runs have shown this first wave to develop into something and be a possible Caribbean threat. they did nail Berth's formation and the two have a fairly similar atmospheric condition to work with though this current wave should take its time to get going, at least compared with Bertha.

Awaiting the ECM run.

[cycloneye]

With the consensus that exists in the models,its hard to ignore what is going on in the Eastern Atlantic.

[jlauderdal]

Wow, the CMC is very interesting. It has two systems east of the islands, Hurricane Bertha in the central Atlantic, and it also has a weak system near the panhandle of Florida.

Please consider the source when looking at anything coming from the CMC that hasn't actually materialized. It had N.O. getting hit directly twice last year.

if we used that advice for every model we would throw them all out the window and never even look at them

[curtadams]

The CMC is particularly bad for overdeveloping. It's in an entirely separate class from the GFS, UKM, and NOGAPS. It generates something like 3 times as many systems and the excess is almost entirely spurious.

[RL3AO]

The water is warm, the shear is low, the sal is limited. Sounds favorable to me. The only reason Bertha developed so quickly was because it was basically a depression when it left Africa.

[Stormcenter]

Wow, the CMC is very interesting. It has two systems east of the islands, Hurricane Bertha in the central Atlantic, and it also has a weak system near the panhandle of Florida.

Please consider the source when looking at anything coming from the CMC that hasn't actually materialized. It had N.O. getting hit directly twice last year.

if we used that advice for every model we would throw them all out the window and never even look at them

Not really...some are better then others with handling the development of systems from waves or disturbances. The CMC is not one them. Hey just my opinion and nothing else.

[Ed Mahmoud]

With the consensus that exists in the models,its hard to ignore what is going on in the Eastern Atlantic.

Bertha looked better though, when it was leaving Africa than model forecasted Cristobal. I know models are bullish, but I'm not 100% convinced based on satellite.

[KWT]

The ECM doesn't do anything with this wave just keeps it as a TW as it moves through the Caribbean. Mind you the ECM also didn't develop Bertha as much as the other models and when it did develop it it then opened it up pretty rapidly as well.

[KWT]

Hmmm I agree Ed though to be fair as I think we all Bertha was a rare storm for July. I think if anything development near 10N is most likely with the convection on the northern side of the wave weakening in regards to convection but I don't think anything will get going till much further west though it may reach invest eventually if deep convection can remain in that area I mentioned.

[cycloneye]

[Ivanhater]

Wow, the CMC is very interesting. It has two systems east of the islands, Hurricane Bertha in the central Atlantic, and it also has a weak system near the panhandle of Florida.

I have no idea where that low off the Florida Panhandle would even come from...

[KWT]

The interesting thing is the ECM also develops a very weak low and sends it towards NW florida so its got a little bit of support!

anyway seems like most models do at least make this a weak system, even if nothing else happens with it.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS shows a weak system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

Yep right along 10N which is looking the best region for development right now. Very early days and totally dependant on forming but obviously the Caribbean Islands will need to watch this one down the line, very early days but I think this one is going to have to be very closely watched by NE Caribbean IMO more so then anywhere else.

[Blown Away]

Are these models picking up on the low that just moved off the African coast?

[Sanibel]

The curvature is there but not the convection (yet?).

[KWT]

There is some curvature on the northern part of the wave but I don't think thats the place to watch, I think then region near 10N is most likely to develop into something, that seems to be where the models focus the main energy.

[cycloneye]

That area of convection just above 10n SE of the CV islands is where it may start things rolling so lets watch that area.

[HURAKAN]

If anything develops, it will take a long time. We must remember that Bertha was an anomalous wave for this time of the year, not the rule.