Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

[Extremeweatherguy]

The system does look to be pretty close to the coast and convection is waning slightly this evening, but it still looks fairly good overall...



Well ok, I guess it is now probably time for me to step away from the computer and wait until morning to come back and check this system out again. I imagine that by then we will have a much better idea as to whether or not this little swirl is a real threat or just another tease like its buddy 94L...

[Jason_B]

Convection will fade tonight as it already looks like it is but that's typical, a new burst should fire up overnight and into the morning.

[wx247]

Yes, the visible images will help tell us more in the morning.

[Stormcenter]

I think it's safe to say that things are still cooking in the Eastern GOM even late this
evening/early morning. I will be very curious to see how this looks in 6 hours.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[RL3AO]

Circulation clear as day on the radar loop. Its being scanned at around 7000 feet.



Its about 86 nm SW of Tampa and about 45 nm west of the coast.

[PTrackerLA]

Yep, afraid that's a center alright and precipitation is on the increase.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Thunder44]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

1. DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO LAND.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

This area is in yellow.

[Jason_B]

Move northeastward? Thought this was going NW back over the Gulf?

[Sanibel]

Obvious spin off Sanibel to west on radar. Winds getting agitated.

[HurricaneHunter914]

So is this thing moving E or NE at a fast or slow pace? Either way, it barely has an area of low wind shear now.

Oviously this will change, but will they increase or decrease?

[KWT]

Convection has decreased a lot in the last few hours though there is still a few deeper convective bursts offshore it doesn't look nearly as good as 6hrs ago.

[dizzyfish]

Sounding like another wet day.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...SATELLITE DATA STILL DEPICTS A
MESO-LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA COASTLINE WITH
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CIRCULATING
AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BRINGING PASSING BANDS OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE COASTLINE FROM SARASOTA SOUTHWARD THROUGH BONITA SPRINGS. AT 230
AM EDT THERE WERE NO HEAVY RAIN AREAS OR SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF
CONVECTION OBSERVED ON RADAR DATA. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD RESUME SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS MIGRATING BACK TO THE NORTH...PULLING THE MESO-LOW
CIRCULATION INLAND. /snip

[KWT]

Yep sure does look like a wet day for that part of the world, looks like it just hasn't got the time to do anything more, if it had another 24hrs offshore then who knows but right now should just get some good storms.

[dizzyfish]

Yeah, if all that rain in the gulf comes inland today we will need to break out the raft.

We got 2.9" from that yesterday and we have an 80% chance for today.

[trave2]

First post here, long time watcher.
Can anyone tell me what that circle is on radar near crystal river?
Found on link below.
Very weird Huh?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Extremeweatherguy]

The low "center" looks to be located west of Tampa and St. Pete this morning. The system definitely still has potential if it can remain offshore...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... W&loop=yes

[dizzyfish]

First post here, long time watcher.
Can anyone tell me what that circle is on radar near crystal river?
Found on link below.
Very weird Huh?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I see that just about every morning. I believe (and someone please correct me if I am wrong) that it is located about where the Chasowitzka (sp) National Forest is and is probably flocks of birds. (honest)

[Extremeweatherguy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

The big question is whether or not this low actually moves E or NE inland as the NHC believes. If the system decides to just stall offshore (which is what it seems to be doing right now), then development could still be possible. We will just have to watch it closely throughout the day to see what happens. Either way, the effects of this system should be quite similar to a TD. Lots of heavy rains, and a few gusty squalls for Florida.

[trave2]

Birds? that would be strange for them to fly away in different directions from a central point! Just a weird burst!

[tolakram]

If a mod could change the thread name to reference the low off the Florida coast it might be helpful.