Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[cycloneye]

Although Derek made a clarification about which is the wave NCEP model (GFS) and others are latching on,for contiuity the runs will be posted in this thread.

12z GFS at 48 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

12z GFS at 60 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

12z GFS at 72 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

12z GFS at 90 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

12z GFS at 102 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

12z GFS at 114 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

12z GFS at 144 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

12z GFS at 168 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

12z GFS at 216 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif Very close to North Coast of Puerto Rico.

12z GFS at 252 Hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif Very close to the Bahamas.

12z GFS at 300 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif From this point is Fantasyland but it has a landfall in South Florida.

12z GFS at 336 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif GOM again.

12z GFS at 360 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_360l.gif Landfall near Pensacola,Ivanhater,are you from that area?

12z GFS Loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[wxman57]

I've noticed alternate GFS runs either recurving to near Bermuda or driving it west. 00Z and 12Z runs have been westerly. Today's 12Z run takes a cane across south Florida on about the same date Andrew hit then west across the Gulf to the MS coast on the 24th. Of course, it'll have to develop first. I think a path somewhere between Central America and recurving east of Bermuda looks most likely.

[vbhoutex]

wow, how can they NOT mention that. The convection has held overnight folks...

i was wondering about that too... it's convection is enough to warrant an invest...

Apparently the NHC doesn't think it meets all the parameters to make it an invest. They know more than we do about this to say the least since they have access to a lot more data than we do.

[Weatherfreak14]

could we be dealing with a Flyod or Hugo??????? If these models actually play out. I mean in short range to medium range.

[Scorpion]

Takes it across Florida into Mobile Bay. Would be a pretty bad scenario.

[bvigal]

I believe we need to specify the longitude and day/time of lows on waves we discuss. Every 2 or 3 days another wave comes off Africa, and it only takes them 5 days to reach the Windwards, or 60W. Another wave is now being discussed, not the one that began this thread that was just coming off African Thursday but is now at 40W, right? <scratching head>

That said, I was disturbed to see the following on GFS this morning:

This model page is 10 days away, so doubt at least the second low depicted is not close to coming off the coast of Africa yet, would not necessarily even be a blob of convection inland yet. I usually ignore long range models. But the increased activity, even if is nearing mid-August, is making me pay attention.

[Ivanhater]

I've noticed alternate GFS runs either recurving to near Bermuda or driving it west. 00Z and 12Z runs have been westerly. Today's 12Z run takes a cane across south Florida on about the same date Andrew hit then west across the Gulf to the MS coast on the 24th. Of course, it'll have to develop first. I think a path somewhere between Central America and recurving east of Bermuda looks most likely.

And I thought you were going to downplay this Chris ...Im not so sure about this being a phantomcane with the consistency, but what do you think about this so called "track race" JB has been talking about I would assume starting with this system?

[wxman57]

wow, how can they NOT mention that. The convection has held overnight folks...

i was wondering about that too... it's convection is enough to warrant an invest...

Apparently the NHC doesn't think it meets all the parameters to make it an invest. They know more than we do about this to say the least since they have access to a lot more data than we do.

Right now, it's just a moderate to strong wave that probably won't develop today or tomorrow. The NHC's outlook isn't for the next week or two, it's for today and tomorrow. When the system gains more convection and perhaps a bit of rotation it'll become an invest. Maybe tomorrow or Monday.

[vbhoutex]

I believe we need to specify the longitude and day/time of lows on waves we discuss. Every 2 or 3 days another wave comes off Africa, and it only takes them 5 days to reach the Windwards, or 60W. Another wave is now being discussed, not the one that began this thread that was just coming off African Thursday but is now at 40W, right? <scratching head>

That said, I was disturbed to see the following on GFS this morning:

This model page is 10 days away, so doubt at least the second low depicted is not close to coming off the coast of Africa yet, would not necessarily even be a blob of convection inland yet. I usually ignore long range models. But the increased activity, even if is nearing mid-August, is making me pay attention.

Some very good points BVI!!!! Most definitely making me pay more attention!!!

[Ivanhater]

I would throw this run out ..lol

[cycloneye]

Although Derek made a clarification about which is the wave NCEP model (GFS) and others are latching on,for contiuity the runs will be posted in this thread.

12z GFS at 48 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

12z GFS at 60 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

12z GFS at 72 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

12z GFS at 90 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

12z GFS at 102 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

12z GFS at 114 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

12z GFS at 144 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

12z GFS at 168 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

12z GFS at 216 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif Very close to North Coast of Puerto Rico.

12z GFS at 252 Hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif Very close to the Bahamas.

12z GFS at 300 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif From this point is Fantasyland but it has a landfall in South Florida.

12z GFS at 336 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif GOM again.

12z GFS at 360 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_360l.gif Landfall near Pensacola,Ivanhater,are you from that area?

12z GFS Loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[wxman57]

I've noticed alternate GFS runs either recurving to near Bermuda or driving it west. 00Z and 12Z runs have been westerly. Today's 12Z run takes a cane across south Florida on about the same date Andrew hit then west across the Gulf to the MS coast on the 24th. Of course, it'll have to develop first. I think a path somewhere between Central America and recurving east of Bermuda looks most likely.

And I thought you were going to downplay this. ...Im not so sure about this being a phantomcane with the consistency, but what do you think about this so called "track race" JB has been talking about I would assume starting with this system?

As weak as the Bermuda high has been of late, I'm suspicious of a track across Florida and into the Gulf. I'd put my money on the Carolinas at this time. We're resting up at the office in preparation for a very busy next 6 weeks. I'm enjoying my weekend off without having to look over my shoulder for possible development. By Monday, that'll be a different story.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Luis, not liking this run good thing is it probably wont happen, however I must note after watching these things the early GFS runs tend to be correct, they flip flop but at the end it tends to go back to its original runs..just something ive noted in the past...

[bvigal]

Yeah Luis, not liking this run good thing is it probably wont happen, however I must note after watching these things the early GFS runs tend to be correct, they flip flop but at the end it tends to go back to its original runs..just something ive noted in the past...

Wouldn't want you to have a hit in Pensacola, but must admit, the 0z run on this was more terrifying:

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Luis, not liking this run good thing is it probably wont happen, however I must note after watching these things the early GFS runs tend to be correct, they flip flop but at the end it tends to go back to its original runs..just something ive noted in the past...

Wouldn't want you to have a hit in Pensacola, but must admit, the 0z run on this was more terrifying:

Yeah bvigal, all these runs suck..any hurricane running through the Caribbean then GOM is a nasty one

[curtadams]

The GFS is developing the wave at 40W right now

Check out the 950mb vorticity

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

looks like a pure phantomcane to me. Makes no sense why it remains stationary for about 48 hours

Yes, the GFS has vort maxes moving in all directions (east, west, north, south) during the formation of these storms. That's what the GFS does when it gets confused by the ITCZ or a monsoonal trough, and it almost always means nothing will come of it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Beyond 180 hours is fantasy land. I do notice at 180 hours the GFS seems to be shrinking the escape route ahead of its storm (phantom or not) for recurve, but it does still seem to show an escape route North of the Greater Antilles that could spare the Caribbean and the US.

If that weakness completely fills, a bend back West would seem possible, assuming we trust the GFS to begin with.

I like the Penn State e-Wall 4 panels, I can see everything together...

[Derek Ortt]

GFS is developing a different system now... the one between the two waves we are watching

This reeks big time of phantom cane... not conerned about the GFS solution at the present time

[cycloneye]

The 12z Canadian at 144 Hours.

[ronjon]

The GFS has been fairly consistent showing development of this system. As we've seen with the GFS, its been spot on with early development plus this system has other model support. Way too soon to pick a landfall or whether at this point it will miss the N leewards. Trends in the last several days of GFS runs have shown a change in the long wave pattern with the jet migrating up along the canadian border in the next 10 days and 500 mb ridging building across the Atlantic. Looking certain something will develop from the monsoon trough in the east Atlantic and we'll have a long tracker over the next two weeks.