Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

[Sanibel]

I guess it's not nice to tempt mother nature...

[emeraldislencguy]

the tropics are DEAD and with the current conditions I really dont see much forming guess we can turn our attention to the winter storms and the 2010 season
does any one have idea if the conditions will chnage in 2010

[NEXRAD]

the tropics are DEAD and with the current conditions I really dont see much forming guess we can turn our attention to the winter storms and the 2010 season
does any one have idea if the conditions will chnage in 2010

There will likely be at least one or two more named systems this season, and something conjuring up along a Gulf frontal boundary is definitely not out of the question as we go through October (strong southern jet stream will be developing, which spells deeper penetrating frontal boundaries, hint hint). So I'd be wary of calling it quits on the season just yet.

This said, the overall pattern will not be very conducive for tropical cyclone formation. I put the details in my "2009 Atlantic tropical season" discussion in the "Tropical Analysis" forum, for those interested in reading the details.

Present ENSO guidance projects that the 2009-2010 El Nino will peak sometime between November and January and will then gradually diminish as we head through the spring. This will leave neutral ENSO conditions in place for the 2010 Atlantic tropical season.

- Jay

[jinftl]

Current shear levels overall in the tropical atlantic are near to a bit below climatologic norms for the date.



The shear forecast for the next 72 hours show shear actually dropping in places....and overall, not out of what would be expected right now




Overall, sst are above normal basin-wide




I guess my question is, what current conditions am I not seeing (or what data am i misinterpreting) that shows without a doubt that there is no way that any systems...even weak ones or ones that don't effect land....could form in the Atlantic for the rest of the season. That may be true, so it may just be I need to be clued in on what the data is really saying. What current conditions (keep in mind, current conditions are in line to the ones that supported 6 storms in the last 35 days...except shear is now the lowest it has been this month overall) shows 'season done'?

the tropics are DEAD and with the current conditions I really dont see much forming guess we can turn our attention to the winter storms and the 2010 season
does any one have idea if the conditions will chnage in 2010

[BigA]

This is a good point. Looking at that graph, the shear in the tropical atlantic during the peak of hurricane season has been about what it normally is, rather than a lot higher. And SAL doesn´t seem to have been particularly bad this year. Maybe the waves just haven´t been in the right place at the right time for development.

Also, take one trough away from the eastern seaboard, and some place between Florida and New England would have been whacked by a large, probably category 2 or 3 storm. (Bill)

Also, given the forecast for decreasing shear in the MDR, the conditions look to be favorable at a time when a wave with a wicked spin rolls of the African coast in 2 days at about 11 degrees latitude. I don´t expect it to get too far west this time of year, but fishing major Cape Verde hurricanes in Late September are hardly climatologically impossible.

[Derek Ortt]

one thing to consider. You usually do not have Caribbean development in October of el nino years

Also, there are very few TCs that form after this date in el nino years

The season may be over

[ConvergenceZone]

If this season is over (like I think it is), this may go down in the record books as one of the most calm years ever in the tropics in the Atlantic...I mean, only to the 'F Storm'? "You are kidding right?"..... This has to be a record low season. This is absolutely unbelievable!!!!! I don't think anyone associated with the tropics would have predicted this!

[Derek Ortt]

1983... only had 4 storms. However, both canes were in the GOM

1918 only had 1

[Brent]

I am shocked... I didn't expect a busy season but to just end after the F storm? By far the worst season I've ever tracked. 1997 was better than this. I don't even get why it's so dead, El Nino is very weak.

[DanKellFla]

I am shocked... I didn't expect a busy season but to just end after the F storm? By far the worst season I've ever tracked. 1997 was better than this. I don't even get why it's so dead, El Nino is very weak.

Easy for you to say, you don't pay the home owners insuraces rates that I do. <rim shot>

[emeraldislencguy]

i agree the wind and hail insurance and loss of income insurance on the coast is brutal.

[Macrocane]

I am shocked... I didn't expect a busy season but to just end after the F storm? By far the worst season I've ever tracked. 1997 was better than this. I don't even get why it's so dead, El Nino is very weak.

El Niño years have some similarities and some differences, they impact the hurricane seasons in different ways it depends not only on the strength of the episode but the time of year when it developed, the location of the SST anomalies (Modiki or Common) and the phase of the Multidecadal Oscillations. Other factors that have affected the ATL basin this year may be a weaker monsoon on western Africa, large amounts of dry air (not necessarily SAL related) and a minimum peak on the tropical cyclone activity worldwide. By the way, this is the worst season I've ever tracked too.

[cycloneye]

And look at the ACE number for the Atlantic (Only 39).Bill and Fred were the cause to reach that as the rest has been insignificant.

[NEXRAD]

I guess my question is, what current conditions am I not seeing (or what data am i misinterpreting) that shows without a doubt that there is no way that any systems...even weak ones or ones that don't effect land....could form in the Atlantic for the rest of the season. That may be true, so it may just be I need to be clued in on what the data is really saying. What current conditions (keep in mind, current conditions are in line to the ones that supported 6 storms in the last 35 days...except shear is now the lowest it has been this month overall) shows 'season done'?

I've never used the shear graphics you provided, Jinftl, but won't discredit them. Per the GFS runs for the past several days, though, upper level winds look pretty nasty in vicinity of the islands. In fact, they look to ramp-up further this week. Take a look at the following links e.g.:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_250_120l.gif. By the end of the week, the GFS is projecting potent westerly shear to effectively road-block anything that might emerge out of the deep Eastern tropical Atlantic. Take a look at the GFS H25 winds for Friday-Saturday (9/25-9/26) and notice the strong, southwesterlies to take shape across the Ern Caribbean, near Puerto Rico, and extend throughout the nearby Atlantic. The model is showing these amplifying to upwards of 40-knots. Even stronger winds emerge offshore Florida, over the Bahamas, and off the US East Coast thanks to an intensifying southern jet. From guidance, it seems that once these winds kick-up aloft this week, they're largely here to remain.

Again, I won't say that a storm will not develop, but the El-Nino setup combined with the evolving wind pattern aloft is really suggesting to me that we're not going to see many more systems this season.

- Jay

[ConvergenceZone]

I am shocked... I didn't expect a busy season but to just end after the F storm? By far the worst season I've ever tracked. 1997 was better than this. I don't even get why it's so dead, El Nino is very weak.

Easy for you to say, you don't pay the home owners insuraces rates that I do.

I think what Brent meant by "the worse season he's ever seen" is from a weather enthusiast's point of view. I agree that from a non-weather enthusiast point of view, it's a blessing and not boring at all....It would have been nice to see some more active ocean-bound canes though.

[Category 5]

Keep going guys, this thread is hilarious.

[Ptarmigan]

I am shocked... I didn't expect a busy season but to just end after the F storm? By far the worst season I've ever tracked. 1997 was better than this. I don't even get why it's so dead, El Nino is very weak.

2009 had six storms, which gives it a higher ACE per a storm, than compared to 1997. Also, 1997 had one major hurricane, while 2009 had two major hurricanes.

[Ptarmigan]

And look at the ACE number for the Atlantic (Only 39).Bill and Fred were the cause to reach that as the rest has been insignificant.

ACE of 39 for 2009 is equal to Hurricane Ike's ACE in 2008.

[Tireman4]

It is not dead until Ed declares it dead.

[Sanibel]

What is that little convection disturbance by the Windwards?