Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[cycloneye]

I dont think anyone wants a cat 4 or 5 come to their area. IMO I think what he meant was that he wants to track cat 4 or 5 canes in open waters without affecting any landmasses.

[Gustywind]

I hope August goes insane with tropical activity. There's so much energy out there that's just waiting to be tapped. Give me some long range Cat 4/5's.

I love the Storm 2K site and the knowledge of most of the posters here but comments like this make me wonder which planet some people are on. For those of us living on small Caribbean islands, long range Cat 4/5s are the last thing we want to see headed our way. Maybe hurricaneCW is from some area well out of hurricane range (info not on his / her profile). If we see a Cat 5 coming this way, join us, we promise to tie you down to something!

Excellent post and wonderfull and pleasant reasoning , you're definitely right concerning the cat 4/5 cane!

[Gustywind]

Looks like another guest is already pointing at the horizon on Africa?

3 nice bulks of convection in the heel of the previous i was mentionned...

[Gustywind]

I dont think anyone wants a cat 4 or 5 come to their area. IMO I think what he meant was that he wants to track cat 4 or 5 canes in open waters without affecting any landmasses.

Hope that LUIS if not it's a

[hurricaneCW]

I dont think anyone wants a cat 4 or 5 come to their area. IMO I think what he meant was that he wants to track cat 4 or 5 canes in open waters without affecting any landmasses.

Of course that's what I meant, some people gotta lighten up.

[Gustywind]

I dont think anyone wants a cat 4 or 5 come to their area. IMO I think what he meant was that he wants to track cat 4 or 5 canes in open waters without affecting any landmasses.

Of course that's what I m.eant, some people gotta lighten up.

we appreciate.

[abajan]

The latest (2:00 a.m.) TWO has canceled the Code Yellow.

[cycloneye]

Even if the wave doesn't organize at all in the next few days, it will still bring active weather to the NE Caribbean by Monday.

Excerpt from NWS San Juan Discussion:

LOOKING AHEAD...A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W FROM 7N TO 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALON THE AXIS NEAR 12N. IN ADDITION...THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GR

[Blown Away]

Not much convection rate now and maybe never w/ the SAL, but this wave is at a perfect latitude that if conditions improve this area could pop all of a sudden. Still has a hint of rotation, but at a minimum it's clearing a path and giving the wave coming off Africa a better shot! Does the Canadian still develop this area down the road?

[Sanibel]

Cycloneye's original wave is at around 42W near 18N but doesn't have much convection.

[Blown Away]

...TROPICAL WAVES... 2pm July 16, 2010
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ AT 12N AS WELL AS FURTHER N AT 16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

Visible: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html
IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

All this area needs is some deeper convection to get started. Very big circulation with rotating low level clouds fighting dry air & SAL.

[KWT]

I'd be pretty confident that if it was a month down the line this wave would probably develop, there is obvious turning, esp further north but the SAL has really hurt this systems chances of development. Perhaps the southern region may have a better shot as its close to the ITCZ which could help to support it.

[Blown Away]

I'd be pretty confident that if it was a month down the line this wave would probably develop, there is obvious turning, esp further north but the SAL has really hurt this systems chances of development. Perhaps the southern region may have a better shot as its close to the ITCZ which could help to support it.

Slight low level clouds rotating in from the SW and some deeper convection building. Overall very weak.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[djones65]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I still think this system has the best potential to develop into something during the next three to five days than. In my opinion it has more potential than the trough in the central Gulf of Mexico or the low pressure area/monsoon trough over the western Caribbean Sea, at least in the next five days or so... This wave has a very large and well defined cyclonic envelope with strong rotation around a point roughly 15.8N and 43W. Obviously it is lacking any deep convection due to the stable, dry Saharan air layer it has been tracking through, but the environment is gradually becoming more moist and that should continue as it heads westward. More importantly, I see an upper level trough north of Puerto Rico which should cause some upper level diffluence as the wave/low gets west of 50W longitude by early Sunday. I would expect the interaction to allow a flare up of deep convection and that could "prime the pump" so to speak and allow this system to begin generating significant thunderstorm activity. The upper trough in my opinion is not strong enough to cause significant shear as it will likely be too far north to inhibit development, but close enough to cause some peripheral shear and diffluence aloft. Like KWT and some others have stated this wave has good low level structure and the upper trough north of Puerto Rico could actually enhance deep convection and give this system a chance to develop as it moves near the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Like the discussion from San Juan said earlier today, this wave is likely to cause unsettled weather on Monday and Tuesday. If this system had deep convection with it currently I believe it would have a moderate chance of developing. Upper level troughs are not always a negative for tropical development, it is the proximity of the trough to the surface disturbance that is important. If a surface disturbance moves under or near an upper trough than the shear would preclude further development, but if the disturbance can pass "near" the trough so it can enhance upper level outflow and create diffluence aloft so that low level convergence will increase and the wave will then be able to sustain convection on its own. I am not expecting this to develop since there is no model support at this time, but the pronounced low level rotation and the fact it is heading towards increased upper diffluence aloft and record warm sea surface temperatures makes me think this system is something worth monitoring late this weekend and early next week as it tracks into or just north of the northeast Caribbean. These are just my rambling thoughts and opinions and is not official information. Twenty-four hours ago Stacy Stewart, NHC forecaster, stated this wave was expected to move into an environment more favorable for development in the next few days.

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I still think this system has the best potential to develop into something during the next three to five days than. In my opinion it has more potential than the trough in the central Gulf of Mexico or the low pressure area/monsoon trough over the western Caribbean Sea, at least in the next five days or so... This wave has a very large and well defined cyclonic envelope with strong rotation around a point roughly 15.8N and 43W. Obviously it is lacking any deep convection due to the stable, dry Saharan air layer it has been tracking through, but the environment is gradually becoming more moist and that should continue as it heads westward. More importantly, I see an upper level trough north of Puerto Rico which should cause some upper level diffluence as the wave/low gets west of 50W longitude by early Sunday. I would expect the interaction to allow a flare up of deep convection and that could "prime the pump" so to speak and allow this system to begin generating significant thunderstorm activity. The upper trough in my opinion is not strong enough to cause significant shear as it will likely be too far north to inhibit development, but close enough to cause some peripheral shear and diffluence aloft. Like KWT and some others have stated this wave has good low level structure and the upper trough north of Puerto Rico could actually enhance deep convection and give this system a chance to develop as it moves near the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Like the discussion from San Juan said earlier today, this wave is likely to cause unsettled weather on Monday and Tuesday. If this system had deep convection with it currently I believe it would have a moderate chance of developing. Upper level troughs are not always a negative for tropical development, it is the proximity of the trough to the surface disturbance that is important. If a surface disturbance moves under or near an upper trough than the shear would preclude further development, but if the disturbance can pass "near" the trough so it can enhance upper level outflow and create diffluence aloft so that low level convergence will increase and the wave will then be able to sustain convection on its own. I am not expecting this to develop since there is no model support at this time, but the pronounced low level rotation and the fact it is heading towards increased upper diffluence aloft and record warm sea surface temperatures makes me think this system is something worth monitoring late this weekend and early next week as it tracks into or just north of the northeast Caribbean. These are just my rambling thoughts and opinions and is not official information. Twenty-four hours ago Stacy Stewart, NHC forecaster, stated this wave was expected to move into an environment more favorable for development in the next few days.

Being this discussion very long, I added the storm2k disclaimer.

[KWT]

Good discussion, the main problem I have with it is the models do suggest it'll be punching right through the shear axis, thats probably why the models don't do anything with it even further west when the SAL may not be so bad. If this one is going to have a chance it'll probably be from 60-65W onwards once its past the worst of the shear, but then its really a lucky dip as to whether it avoids the ULL's dotted in that region still.

[Vortex]

As has been stated this system certainly needs to be monitored closely. At this point most models indicate an increase in convectivity with this system as it passes 60w. That combined with very warm sst's, ridging to the north, and decent upper level conditons by 12Z monday warrants attention as there is no reason this sytem shouldn't continue west across the Bahamas, Florida and into the Gulf based on guidance. The envelope is large and a mid/low level circulation accompanies this system presently. Nogaps shows the increase in convection nicely on the 18Z/16 run.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[gatorcane]

What makes this wave any different than the hundreds of waves that take this kind of track through the Atlantic each year which end up not developing? I have really no concern at all about this wave, and development just doesn't look likely anytime soon (or possibly ever) with zero model support. Certainly does not look like 2005-like conditions out there at the moment, where this wave may have had somewhat of a chance.

Will enjoy some African dust overhead this weekend here across South FL with just about 0% chance of rain (much below normal for this time of year) and no trouble from the tropics

[floridasun78]

looking at this gfs run look like make area look better as move more west here the link to gfs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml