Wave in Central Caribbean

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to note the continued disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean. NHC stated the SW Caribbean could be favorable regarding development...

[Weatherfreak000]

Looking very impressive tonight

[Florida1118]

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
UNTIL IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

Does this mean Invest 91?

[BrianD]

Indeed it is looking pretty healthy in this region

[KWT]

Convection has nearly totally poofed this morning, its the least convectivly active I've seen the Caribbean in a while!

[Tropics Guy]

Went poof overnight, may refire when it nears the western Caribbean...........

TG

[gatorcane]

Great example of how South America can rip apart a wave in the Eastern Caribbean if a wave hasn't developed prior to reaching the Eastern Caribbean (John Hope rule).

[Sanibel]

It wasn't much of a wave to begin with. The hostile July Caribbean wiped it out. Meanwhile 90L rebloomed its convection.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS develops this quite nicely

[Ivanhater]

12z Nam

[lester]

18z nam at 36 hrs:

[Ivanhater]

GFS still develops this

[KWT]

Models quite keen on at least hinting development, though whether or not it makes it is uncertain thats for sure!

[rockyman]

A ship is currently reporting a 1005 mb pressure off the coast of Colombia:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... 000&loop=0

[andyis]

I'm seeing some spin southeast of Jamaica, anybody else?

[Macrocane]

I see it too, I looked a the WV loop to see if it is an ULL but to my amateur eyes it is not, maybe is something at the mid level, maybe it's a low pressure is trying to form as the models have been hinting.

[ROCK]

its trying to consolidate a center. It was a pretty broad low to begin with....has model support so inclined to say this will develop before slamming into CA...even for 1005mb low current steering is west....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Recurve]

GFS plows it along pretty much due west

[somethingfunny]

GFS really wants to spin this up into at least a tropical storm before hitting Central America despite this system rapidly running out of real estate. So much for that weak bias on the new model I suppose.

[Frank P]

I like looking at the MIMIC-TPW loop for early signs of rotation.. and it looks like it has some slight turning to the system as a broad low area... also shows a pretty good rotation on 91L as it hints of gaining TD status soon.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html