Wave WSW of CV Islands
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Florida1118
Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development
Do you think when its out further on water, the NHC will give it some chance?
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Ivanhater
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development
Florida1118 wrote:Do you think when its out further on water, the NHC will give it some chance?
When they look at the 00z model package, I don't think they will have a choice.
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Michael
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knotimpaired
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The models sure are keen on developing this area a little down the line, the unertainty lies with exactly waht area is developed...
Also interesting to see the ECM and GFS/CMC have swapped round, with the ECN this time being further north!
ECM almost looks like it takes a Dora type track.
Also interesting to see the ECM and GFS/CMC have swapped round, with the ECN this time being further north!
ECM almost looks like it takes a Dora type track.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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knotimpaired
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development
Which Dora?
We has one in 81, 87, 93 and 99.
Geez, I never realized they repeated the names so often. I think that Storm2k should come up with new names and submit them to the National Hurricane Center.
Just a thought.
We has one in 81, 87, 93 and 99.
Geez, I never realized they repeated the names so often. I think that Storm2k should come up with new names and submit them to the National Hurricane Center.
Just a thought.
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cycloneye
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development
This wave was introduced at the 8 AM TWD. It has taken forever for it to emerge. (I want to change the title) 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE W AFRICAN COAST ALONG 17W S OF
17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL
INDICATE THE WAVE IS JUST ABOUT TO PASS THE STATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
14W-18W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 15W-19W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE W AFRICAN COAST ALONG 17W S OF
17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL
INDICATE THE WAVE IS JUST ABOUT TO PASS THE STATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
14W-18W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 15W-19W.
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knotimpaired
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development
Luis,
You are my weather God.
You speak, I bow.
K
You are my weather God.
You speak, I bow.
K
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cycloneye
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development
HURAKAN, the image is on the wrong thread.
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cycloneye
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development
A question for those model gurus, what the models (CMC, GFS, NOGAPS and ECMWF) were latching on last night at 00z was from this wave or from the blob at ITCZ?
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development
cycloneye wrote:A question for those model gurus, what the models (CMC, GFS, NOGAPS and ECMWF) were latching on last night at 00z was from this wave or from the blob at ITCZ?
the actual wave axis which was analyzed over western africa last night..
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ConvergenceZone
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Aric Dunn
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ConvergenceZone wrote:Whether this wave develops or not, I still think we will have Colin by August 7th.
well as waves go... it is pretty amplified and once it completely emerges into the Atlantic we may see it organize faster... but right now its pretty meager structure and convection wise
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Actually Aric its a bit of a fusion, some models develop the blob whilst the slower models seem to develop the African wave...
I do agree this one may need to be watched down the line, probably in a similar region the wave to the east of the Caribbean right now.
I do agree this one may need to be watched down the line, probably in a similar region the wave to the east of the Caribbean right now.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Aric Dunn
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KWT wrote:Actually Aric its a bit of a fusion, some models develop the blob whilst the slower models seem to develop the African wave...
I do agree this one may need to be watched down the line, probably in a similar region the wave to the east of the Caribbean right now.
being that the models are likely not initializing the blob as a wave so they are probably merging whatever energy from the blob with the large wave exiting africa. energy transforms can and do aid in the development of systems.. so the wave coming off africa could transfer to the blob and help in that way or some other interaction... it will be fun too watch of course. lol
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development
Whether they form or not these waves are the first signs of the CV season turning on.
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Florida1118
Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development
The people on TWC care about this more then the NHC does at this point. Which is surprising, them being conservative.
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Indeed Sanibel, I suspect this one is the firing shot that the CV season is just about ready even if it doesn't quite get there.
It'll be interesting to see how all this evolves as Aric said. The models will sure be interesting today!
12z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
Edit-12z GFS has this wave catching the blob to the west and it develops into a weak system and then weakens as a new low develops way off to the north.
It'll be interesting to see how all this evolves as Aric said. The models will sure be interesting today!
12z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
Edit-12z GFS has this wave catching the blob to the west and it develops into a weak system and then weakens as a new low develops way off to the north.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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