Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 18z...on again of again...gets a hint back @ 144

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS is picking up on it:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[Ivanhater]

GFS is slowly starting to latch on. Even through 114 hours you can see it tracking through the Caribbean.



Conditions looks good

[Wx_Warrior]

[Ivanhater]

Conditions look great to take off regardless what the Surface reflection shows later on, on this run.

GFS latching on

[Vortex]

IMO, i think something in between the ecm/gfs and canadian looks best right now trackwise..Significant differences though...Once we get a defined center and an invest we should have a better handle on track....

[Wx_Warrior]

What track is the CMC showing, if I may ask?

[Ivanhater]

Canadian out of the Caribbean just north of PR

[Vortex]

Takes it nnw to around 19/20N then a turn to the west..similar to NAM but further N before the turn back west...

[Ivanhater]

Getting stronger and I think it will be stronger than the surface reflection is indicating

[cycloneye]

I see a consensus of the models developing this, although some are more stronger than others.Trackwise,there are different tracks.

[Ivanhater]

Getting stronger

[Vortex]

I agree Ivan, I think this may really ramp up quickly in comparison to the GFS. Big differences in track for sure...

[Ivanhater]

Even stronger yet again

[Wx_Warrior]

OT: notice it drops storm behind Igor. Will probably be back in 0z run.

[Ivanhater]

Really ramping up...not surprising looking at the 200mb charts

[Vortex]

18Z Nopgaps rolling....Looks very similar to the NAM thru 72 hours just weaker....




https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

[Wx_Warrior]

Crazy how 18z is MUCH stronger on several different systems than 12z.

[KWT]

No reason for this not to develop IMO, the models are steadily latching onto something developing.

Track is an interesting one, the models seem to be suggesting a strong upper high forming over the SE states again which would mean a W/WNW track towards CA/Yucatan and after that it all depends on the state of the high after that...frankly its a little early to say.

ECM probably overdoing the strength of the high IMO...but most likely track IMO is WNW into Yucatan then into the BoC/Southern Gulf and landfall in Mexico...maybe Texas...thats a classic La Nina track.