Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[blp]

00z CMC nothing in the short run. It seams to take the pouch and suck it into Julia early on and that is why it never reaches the islands. I think tomorrow it will start picking it up once the pouch gets further away from Julia's influence.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010091600&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[KWT]

It takes a pretty strong trough to drag this system out from deep Yucatan/Mexico this 00z GFS run, which at this time of year is more then possible but still does require decent timings...

I suspect the most likely set-up is like Karl at least to the Yucatan, and it'll probably get into the BoC/Southern Gulf...after that increasing chance a trough will come in and who knows, could quite easily head anywhere from maybe just NW right the way through to a NE/NNE system like Opal, just too soon to know either way!

[KWT]

By the way the ECM barely has this feature at all till about 216hrs, the Vort gets into the N.BoC at 240hrs and looks a little stronger so I'd guess the ECM would eventualy develop but who knows!

06z shows this one nearly exactly in the same place Karl was first invested at 120hrs.

[KWT]

06z does more or less the exact same thing as the 00z did but makes it far more complex, runs it due west nearly into Central America, then halts it and the upper trough strengthens and the system lifts out to the NE, but doesn't manage to fuly make it so drifts north then back to a NE heading...

Then the system loses the trough connection again and head due north towards the Panhandle on this run...

It'd be a very unusual track but not impossible given we are getting close to October by this point...

[cycloneye]

This is where the 06z GFS ends. Another consecutive run since last friday from this model developing it.

[BigA]

Other models tha show something.

00Z ECMWF has it (or at least some sort of low) moving into the gulf in the 10 day range

06 NOGAPS has a closed low moving into the eastern Caribbean in 4-6 days

00 HWRF (Julia) has it show up east of the islands near the end of the run (114-126 hours)

[Vortex]

6Z Nogaps shows up nicely entering eastern carribean on day 6





https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[lonelymike]

Until the CMC and Euro really latch onto this system......

[ronjon]

Until the CMC and Euro really latch onto this system......

It's a long way out but the improved GFS code this season has really nailed cyclogenesis with the execption of Karl although most models wanted to develop Karl in the eastern caribbean and GFS held off till the western caribbean which is exactly what happened. I believe GFS wasn't overly impressed with Gaston to which we all know what happened there. On the other side of the coin, GFS correctly predicted the formation and intensity of Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Igor, and Julia. So in that respect, the GFS has outperformed the Euro which has tended to be more inconsistent on cyclogenesis and strength. Of course, model consensus is really looked for but this is pretty far out so we'll see if the other codes come around in the next few days.

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian Ensemble mean strongly suggests a storm in the NW Caribbean/Gulf

[poof121]

CIMSS Predict is calling this PGI46L now...

[Vortex]

It appears that the area that may spawn the Caribbean storm is currently near 9N/37W. An inverted trough is currently present over the area with a hint of cyclonic rotation. Over the next 2-3 days this area should wax and wane as it begins to move westward. In the short-term (Next 2-3 days) the outflow from Igor will limit organized convection on the north side of this developing low center. A look at this morning's 500mb Vorticity charts indicated 50-75 units of vorticity(rotation of air) which is sufficient to bring about a circulation and genesis(organized low) down the road. Thermodynamics will only improve once passing 50w leading to an increase in convection.

[ColinDelia]

Some nice spin to start

[cycloneye]

Another run by GFS showing this system.GOM bound again.

12z at 312 hours

[cycloneye]

Landfall at Louisiana.

12z GFS Loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Vortex]

The GFS has certainly covered the GOM….So we have LA now in the mix after consistently flipping back and forth between TX and FL. More importantly the GFS has not backed down in days of bring a significant cyclone towards the NW Caribbean in about 10 days.

[BigA]

The persistance of the GFS reminds me of how it was before Danielle. Run after run after run...and that one verified.

[ROCK]

destroys Houston, NO, Tampa....that is about all of the major cities on the gulf coast....

[Vortex]

Bottom line the GFS continues to suggest there will be enough of a weakness over the GOM to carry this out of the NW Caribbean. How strong that trough is along the east coast will determine the final destination…

[ROCK]

Bottom line the GFS continues to suggest there will be enough of a weakness over the GOM to carry this out of the NW Caribbean. How strong that trough is along the east coast will determine the final destination…

agree...slight weakness =TX med weakness=LA big weakness= FL