Disturbance in the western Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

[Vortex]

H180 still over SW carribean


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[Vortex]

H348 I highly doubt this system will still be down there in 2 weeks...The GFS is obviously having issues handling this system...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_348l.gif

[HURAKAN]

If this system stays there for over two weeks, crossing the Panama Canal won't be much trouble!! lol

[Ivanhater]

The GFS doesn't actually develop this system this run. It keeps low pressure in the SW Caribbean, which is very typical this time of year.

Edit: 18z GFS attempts to develop the low but gets ripped apart as it tries to head north.

Another run of the GFS showing shear only increasing throughout the long range.

[Vortex]

coming together nicely this evening after looking at the the last of the hi-res vis coming in...

[Vortex]

Gotta love model watching this time of year...

[Vortex]

maybe well throw a run in rock and ivan before were done....

[Vortex]

The 18Z reminds me abit of the 00z ECM today

[Vortex]

It appears the low is beginning to organize around 12N/78W right where several of the models indicated....

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK
ISLAND AND ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Vortex]

18Z 850mb shows the vorticity well and looks very similar to the 12Z ECM where it shears the system out just S of central cuba...



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[gatorcane]

When do you think we will see an invest for this system?

[HURAKAN]

When do you think we will see an invest for this system?

If the system continues to progress and the computer models continue to forecast development, I would say within the next 24 hours.

[Vortex]

I think by Friday afternoon 230pm

[Ivanhater]

I'm leaning toward this getting named...conditions do look favorable in the Western Caribbean but once it tries to head north, it will get sheared apart.

[gatorcane]

Nice cyclonic rotation showing up in ir imagery tonight. I want to see if the convection maintains or not though. There is still a lot of dry air pushing down the western Caribbean around the backside of Otto.

[Blown Away]

I'm leaning toward this getting named...conditions do look favorable in the Western Caribbean but once it tries to head north, it will get sheared apart.

It sure does look that way now, but keep in mind this low is likely to be just off the coast of Honduras in @7 days, so it's a long way out to predict shear.

[Ivanhater]

I'm leaning toward this getting named...conditions do look favorable in the Western Caribbean but once it tries to head north, it will get sheared apart.

It sure does look that way now, but keep in mind this low is likely to be just off the coast of Honduras in @7 days, so it's a long way out to predict shear.

Shear only looks to get worse...not really even close as to being some shear or not....we are talking 60 to 80 knots, so shear is almost a sure bet.

I will say if this system gets stuck and does not try to move north or another low develops after this one (very possible) the shear may let up after 12 days or so. Anything that tries to move north over the next 12 days though will likely not be a threat to the U.S.

[gatorcane]

The euro seems to want to lighten the shear by day 10 and in the last run misses south florida to the south but not really that much considering it's nearly 200 hours out so we know the run will change. Not only that but it's slightly more west than the 12z from 24 hours ago. Then again the 00z runs have not been as bullish.