2012 WPAC season

[euro6208]

even with the dry phrase over the western pacific, tembin grew to a category 4 peak and now bolaven is strengthening, 10 knots from being a major typhoon...although both aren't shown for week 1...week 2 is going to be active....

During Week-2 (August 30-September 5), the Global Hazards Outlook indicates above average rainfall for parts of the eastern Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and west Pacific due to the enhanced phase of the MJO shifting slowly east. Odds for tropical cyclone development are forecast to increase for the South China Sea and west Pacific.

[euro6208]

the ACE really ramping up thanks to tembin and bolaven...

now at 121.45


Normal year to date is 116


Normal yearly ace is 302...based on 1981-2010 climatology


it's not even the *ber* months yet...

http://policlimate.com/tropical

[Chickenzilla]

Has there ever been a WPAC season with ACE larger than 500?

[Extratropical94]

Has there ever been a WPAC season with ACE larger than 500?

The 1997 Pacific typhoon season [...] was the most active tropical cyclone season ever recorded, with a record ten Category 5 storms forming and with an ACE of 594.11.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Pacif ... oon_season

[euro6208]

euro showing nothing developing any time soon possibly due to the mjo moving back to the indian ocean but look at tembin and bolaven....they developed during the dry phrase

at least we can finally rest before september comes and all hell might break loose...

[euro6208]

euro showing 2 areas of low pressure, one east of the philippines and the other near vietnam...but it dissipates them...

[euro6208]

the wet phrase of the mjo reenergizing the basin after twin category 4's....tembin and bolaven...

euro doesn't show anything developing in the near future...

[euro6208]

well well...looks like no tropical cyclones during the next 2 weeks...we'll see...

[somethingfunny]

This is pretty incredible to have nothing going on in the WPAC for the entire first week of September.

[dexterlabio]

The surprise might come on the later part of September. And if El Nino condition kicks in by Oct-Dec period, we'll likely get an extension. Btw Euro 12z shows a TC in the long range. That's on the 15th, so maybe things will only start going on the last half of the month.

[RobWESTPACWX]

This is pretty incredible to have nothing going on in the WPAC for the entire first week of September.

For real, the monsoonal trough over SE Asia is really dropping a lot of rain right now in Thailand and Malaysia, but as far as organized systems go not to much to speak of, by the start of next week though I think an area south of Guam might begin to show some signs of life.

[euro6208]

possible south china sea storm?

[dexterlabio]

^latest from euro shows that again along with another possible TC far east of Philippine Sea..looks bound to Okinawa...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah, that NOAA chart is going to be proved very wrong in my opinion. MJO right over Maritime Continent right now, hence all the rain over SE Asia which Rob mentioned, it's forecast to move into Wpac soon. ECM finally on the TC development band wagon, and latest GFS run spawns 3 TCs in the medium to long run. Fully expecting next storm to develop middle of next week, and models hinting it will be a threat to land.

[euro6208]

what is that southeast of tokyo? euro has an area of low pressure developing southeast of japan and tracking slowly towards tokyo before recurving to the north...

oh geez, looks like we might have ourselves another landfall if euro is correct from that philippine sea storm..i feel for okinawa having gone through a category 4 landfalling typhoon last month and now this? it seems like every storm wants to visit someone

[euro6208]

Current Year to Date 147.893

1981-2010 Climatology NORMAL YEARLY ACE 302
NORMAL YEAR TO DATE 147

we are currently ahead of climatology but unless something develops, this season will be behind...

http://policlimate.com/tropical/

[euro6208]

looks like we might have ourselves two more twin typhoons...one headed for hainan island and the other southeast of okinawa...

sanba and jelawat are the next names on the list...

[dexterlabio]

A little different setup from the latest Euro run. Possible TC in SCS heading towards Luzon Straight (possibly Taiwan) while the other in the Philippine Sea recurving towards Japan. GFS and NOGAPS have been hinting 2 TC's west and east of PI next week. Wait and see.......

[Typhoon Hunter]

I think that ECMWF 00z run is showing a little too much direct interaction between the two systems, just a hunch.

On a side note regarding Bolaven, I do not think it was anywhere near cat 4 or even cat 3 strength when it hit Okinawa. Not only was I able to drive into the eye (admittedly on the sheltered west coast about 15 miles "inland" that would not be possible in a cat 4,) the back end eyewall winds were at a guess around cat. 1 sustained.

The next day I went to the exact location the northern eyewall made landfall on the coast and there was hardly any damage to trees and vegetation, not even a single tree blown over. The JMA pressure reading in the eye in Nago where I was was a very low 935hPa, but the winds were not representative of that pressure.

A fascinating yet very peculiar storm was Bolaven! Again, wish we had damn recon out here.

[dexterlabio]

To think it was a very large typhoon. That was peculiar indeed. Verifying surface winds and barometric pressure through recon missions is important in this case. I guess the very low pressure in the eye not translating to the actual sustained winds around the center is because of flat pressure gradient. I've read about this somewhere. Low pressure reading does not always translate to strong sustained winds. Maybe the whole system has an evenly low pressure, considering Bolaven's large nature...but there wasn't enough gradient or difference in pressure near the eye. You can correct me anytime, I'm not too sure about this thing. I can say relying on Dvorak estimates isn't enough. We need recon.