Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[ronjon]

I think the wave along 70W is about to merge with a huge convection mass rolling off the coast of SA near 75W. Things looking like they're coming together and with an anticyclone progged by GFS over the western caribbean in 84 hrs we might have something to discuss soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

[gatorcane]

I think the wave along 70W is about to merge with a huge convection mass rolling off the coast of SA near 75W. Things looking like they're coming together and with an anticyclone progged by GFS over the western caribbean in 84 hrs we might have something to discuss soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yes that is how I see it. Here is a graphic I put together and posted yesterday. We can now see the area moving off of Colombia and the Central Caribbean wave should should start interacting with the area in a couple of days. Saved image:

[tolakram]

Sorry gatorcane, I had to remove your image.

A reminder to everyone, if you make an image showing your thoughts please remove all official logos so it is in no way confused by someone looking at just the image as being from an official source. The last thing we want is a home made image showing up in the media somewhere and being tagged as official.

[cycloneye]

This is this mornings update of pouch 16L by the group.

P16L
15N, 68W
700 hPa

WARNING. Recently, the models have been suggesting that P16L would dissipate and that the south Caribbean gyre would then, subsequently, develop and track to the northwest, as a separate circulation. I have not tracked the south Caribbean gyre because (1) it has remained a separate circulation from P16L and (2) past experience has taught me that the models tend to excessively develop the south Caribbean gyre. In today's ECMWF and GFS, the story is a little different. While P16L still appears to be nothing but a weak OW max, the subsequent circulation develops a little farther north (close to P16L) and moves along with the P16L wave (not after). So, at least for today, I will track what the model provides, which is a weak OW max that merges with the south Caribbean gyre and tracks northwestward. AS ALWAYS, be aware that these model forecasts have a high likelihood of being over developed.

ECMWF: South Caribbean gyre begins moving along with P16L (or its remnants) starting at 36 hours. Before that, P16L is simply a weak OW max. Tracks over south Yucatan.

GFS: Becomes a distinct pouch with a CL-trough intersection later than in ECMWF, not until 72 hours. Then, the small pouch with elevated OW tracks more northward, brushing against Cozumel and entering the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P16L.html

[gatorcane]

Sorry gatorcane, I had to remove your image.

A reminder to everyone, if you make an image showing your thoughts please remove all official logos so it is in no way confused by someone looking at just the image as being from an official source. The last thing we want is a home made image showing up in the media somewhere and being tagged as official.

Mark - I wasn't aware of this rule as I have posted many marked up NHC images in the past but it makes sense. I blacked out the NOAA logo and reposted. Hope this is OK.

[tolakram]

Sorry gatorcane, I had to remove your image.

A reminder to everyone, if you make an image showing your thoughts please remove all official logos so it is in no way confused by someone looking at just the image as being from an official source. The last thing we want is a home made image showing up in the media somewhere and being tagged as official.

Mark - I wasn't aware of this rule as I have posted many marked up NHC images in the past but it makes sense. I blacked out the NOAA logo and reposted. Hope this is OK.

Looks good to me, thanks.

I'm sure the mods miss some images from time to time.

The rule is here: viewtopic.php?f=37&t=87189

DO NOT USE OFFICIAL MAPS

The use of official maps such as those produced by NOAA or similar agencies by individual members for use in posting forecasts is not allowed at STORM2K even with a disclaimer attached. Any one who continues this practice will be subject to suspension of posting privileges. If you have any questions concerning this feel free to contact a staff member. If you wish to use a map for forecasting purposes please use those provided here - viewtopic.php?t=76684

It doesn't specifically mention satellite images or other non-maps with logos but in my opinion this rule should apply for the same reason. A well done map with an official logo is indistinguishable from an official forecast.

[cycloneye]

Here is this mornings discussion by Dr Jeff Masters:

A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

[ROCK]

06Z NAVGEM- still buries this into the BOC but brings it up the coast to south texas

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

O6Z FIM- takes a weak system into East LA...

06Z GFS- still like FL Panhandle as a weak system. and as Dr Masters suggested a subtropical storm. Yes, we have been reduced to mentioning sub troipical storms in August...

[Rgv20]

Looks like we are getting a consensus on the disturbance trying to organize just East of the Yucatan in the NW Caribbean on Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

I was thinking I would give some love to the 0zUKMET! All the Global Models show some 850mb Vorticity just east of the Yucatan by Wednesday Evening.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

At the same time frame as above the 0zECMWF Ensembles show a little bit of spread within its Ensembles on the NW Caribbean..



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Eventually some of the Euro Ensembles take it to Central/NE Mexico by Day 6.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Rgv20]

Morning Discussion out of the NWS in Brownsville..

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE
PICTURE AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IN THE CARIBBEAN. CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP HAS A
LACK OF EVIDENCE OF ANY DISTURBANCE AT THIS TIME WITH THE CIMSS
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS INDICATING HIGHER PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GFS REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MOVING IT INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING THE DISTURBANCE AS
AN OPEN WAVE TAKING IT ON A STRAIGHT WESTERLY MOVEMENT INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS DO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION
AS DOES THE HURRICANE CENTER INDICATING A 20 PERCENT...LOW
CHANCE... OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IN
ANY CASE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NC GULF AND THE RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY TYPE
OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. WITH DAYS
5-7 HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW CHANCE OF POPS THAT ARE
ALREADY PAINTED IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER CONSENSUS
OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE BEFORE WE REMOVE THEM.

[ROCK]

I am beginning to wonder if it will develop at all.

[Macrocane]

An upper anticyclone is going to develop tight over the disturbance so conditions will be fairly good at least in the northwestern Caribbean and southeastern GOM.

[wxman57]

I'm thinking development chances better than 50%. Most likely track would be to northern Yucatan on Thursday then northward. Eventual landfall between SE LA and FL Panhandle over the coming weekend. Probably not a large storm, as the favorable environment isn't large. Can't rule out a hurricane.

[perk]

06Z NAVGEM- still buries this into the BOC but brings it up the coast to south texas

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

O6Z FIM- takes a weak system into East LA...

06Z GFS- still like FL Panhandle as a weak system. and as Dr Masters suggested a subtropical storm. Yes, we have been reduced to mentioning sub troipical storms in August...

Rock that 6z navgem seemed to creep northward on the last few frames.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't buy the Sub-Tropical Storm idea with this developing and coming up from the Yucatan Channel. It might get absorbed by a front along the upper Gulf Coast, but this should be pure tropical IMO.

[ROCK]

06Z NAVGEM- still buries this into the BOC but brings it up the coast to south texas

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

O6Z FIM- takes a weak system into East LA...

06Z GFS- still like FL Panhandle as a weak system. and as Dr Masters suggested a subtropical storm. Yes, we have been reduced to mentioning sub troipical storms in August...

Rock that 6z navgem seemed to creep northward on the last few frames.

yes...the NAVGEM developes this further into the Yucatan where it doesnt feel the weakness...sort of the like the EURO....


bottom line is there is some model consensus at the moment but not 100%...

[ROCK]

I don't buy the Sub-Tropical Storm idea with this developing and coming up from the Yucatan Channel. It might get absorbed by a front along the upper Gulf Coast, but this should be pure tropical IMO.

yeah its pretty sad we are mentioning sub-tropical developement in the GOM in August!!

[CaneCurious]

I'm thinking development chances better than 50%. Most likely track would be to northern Yucatan on Thursday then northward. Eventual landfall between SE LA and FL Panhandle over the coming weekend. Probably not a large storm, as the favorable environment isn't large. Can't rule out a hurricane.

ok if wxman57 is on board then I'm watching.

[N2FSU]

I'm thinking development chances better than 50%. Most likely track would be to northern Yucatan on Thursday then northward. Eventual landfall between SE LA and FL Panhandle over the coming weekend. Probably not a large storm, as the favorable environment isn't large. Can't rule out a hurricane.

ok if wxman57 is on board then I'm watching.

Ditto!

[Frank P]

Well I certainly agree with you guys on wxman57... you would think things should really start ramping up now that we are in the middle of August... and if it is going to be as busy as some predict, it needs to start happening pretty soon... guess I wait a couple of days to see what happens before I run out to buy any gas for the generator though..