Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: (Is Invest 93L)

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY...WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO FORM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[ROCK]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_53.png

right look how the the ridge craters and how far north it comes this run.

[ROCK]

06Z GFS ensembles spread out some from the 0Z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 013091006/

[Sanibel]

Less twist today but better convection.

[wxman57]

You'd think this would qualify for an invest. Will likely be Ingrid in the SW Gulf or northern BoC by Friday. Probably move inland between Brownsville & Tampico on Sunday. Can't rule out hurricane strength. Possibly even moving inland as far north as Brownsville.

[ROCK]

the way that shortwave breaks down the ridge (on the GFS) I am thinking even farther north. 0Z NAVGEM from last night saw something similar but because it kept it down there for a good while.....

[Stormcenter]

Personally I have to see it first to believe it. It's been that type of season so far. IMO

[Rgv20]

NWS Morning Discussion out of Brownsville.....They seem to think that something may indeed form in the SW GOM/BOC.

''IN ADDITION...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF ON OR ABOUT THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN FIVE DAYS OF NOW. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT
DOES OR NOT...MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE FED TOWARD THE CWA DUE
TO THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN
ALL...CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR DISTURBED WEATHER TO ORGANIZE
IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF LATER THIS WEEK...SUPPORTED BY A SLIGHTLY
MORE CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...I.E. STEERING FLOW ALOFT.

THE GFS SEEMS MORE GUNG HO WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST
GULF FROM THE GET-GO. IT SPINS UP A CIRCULATION AND BRINGS IT
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE EXECUTING A LEFT TURN INTO MEXICO
JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THIS TRACK WOULD INCREASE MARINE WINDS
QUITE A BIT...WITH LESSER IMPACT ON INLAND WINDS. TWEAKED THE THE
INHERITED FORECAST WINDS WITH THE LATEST GFS RUN...BUT USED A
HEAVIER WEIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THUS DAMPENING THE
MARINE WIND INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WITH THE ECMWF NOT SHOWING THE
SAME KIND OF DEVELOPMENT...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO AVERAGE.

IN EITHER CASE...THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES
EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUBDUED AND NEAR
NORMAL DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...WHILE
LOW TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE SAME
REASONS. HIGH TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND MAY
ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE INCREASED POP
CHANCES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS HIGHER WEEKEND POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL DEEPENING OF THE LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF AND THE SUBSEQUENT INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION MOVING
THIS WAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.''

[Rgv20]

Here is Dr. Jeff Master's take from this morning blog.

The models are bullish on developing a tropical depression in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Saturday. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 10% and 5-day odds of 60%. Any storm developing the Gulf would likely track west-northwest into the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border, and could bring heavy rains as far north as Corpus Christi early next week.

Jeff Masters

[Portastorm]

I really don't think the question now is WILL something form but WHEN. Seems we have nearly universal agreement that something is going to form down there in the next 3-4 days.

And given the model uncertainty about strength of ridging as well as the timing of development ... I'm surprised Dr. Masters would be so cut-and-dried on a potential path.

[PTrackerLA]

What's interesting is the 06z GFS really backed off the intensity, 00z Euro hardly shows any development at all now and the 06z NAVGEM doesn't really show anything through 150 hrs in the BOC. Could the models already be "stepping away from the development table?"

[cycloneye]

Air Force Recon and the NASA Global Hawk are ready to go on Thursday.

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N 92W AT 12/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: POSSIBLE GLOBAL HAWK MISSION FOR 12/1100Z

[perk]

I really don't think the question now is WILL something form but WHEN. Seems we have nearly universal agreement that something is going to form down there in the next 3-4 days.

And given the model uncertainty about strength of ridging as well as the timing of development ... I'm surprised Dr. Masters would be so cut-and-dried on a potential path.

He's always been that way.That's why I rarely read his blog anymore.

[ROCK]

What's interesting is the 06z GFS really backed off the intensity, 00z Euro hardly shows any development at all now and the 06z NAVGEM doesn't really show anything through 150 hrs in the BOC. Could the models already be "stepping away from the development table?"

no, they are coming to the table to eat....flip flopping of the models is a given this far out. the EURO hasnt done all that great with cyclone genesis this year. Showed Humbert rather well though...the NAVGEM shows development of a large circulation but at 150hr still over the Yucatan. A lot slower than all the other globals which any delay in the short term can throw off timing of the short wave....

[Rgv20]

What's interesting is the 06z GFS really backed off the intensity, 00z Euro hardly shows any development at all now and the 06z NAVGEM doesn't really show anything through 150 hrs in the BOC. Could the models already be "stepping away from the development table?"

The reason the Euro did not show any development is because it buries the system in Southern Mexico, not enough time over water, which could be a possibility. The 0zECMWF Ensemble have the system a bit more north than the operational so I won't be surprise if the 12zECMWF is a bit more north in line with the GFS on its run.



0zECMWF Ensembles by day 120hrs...East of Tampico


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[cycloneye]

Is now invest 93L. Go to the Invest 93L discussion thread to continue the comments.