Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)

[Riptide]

0z GEM is on board for something substantial, as are the GFS ensembles. I can see it somewhat, looks like things are flaring up tonight.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS keeps this area a strong tropical wave and tries to close off a low in the western Caribbean, that could be trouble if conditions are right
as for the 0zCanadian I think a track into the GOM is becoming a greater threat as time goes by and most if not all the models are now depicting that but as its 7 to 10 days from that it could change, heck it could end up a hurricane hitting Belize

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[somethingfunny]

That CMC/GEM run is something funny alright.

What I find more interesting than the Constantly Making Cyclones aspect of how much potential this wave has or what the exact track voodoo is (the islands have an obvious effect on intensity) is that the model expects the environment in the Gulf of Mexico to be very favorable. The GFS doesn't develop this wave, but it also shows a very low shear environment in 240 hours for any system that might try to spin up in the Gulf. I'd also expect moisture from the recurving EPAC systems to help mitigate any dry air.

[Riptide]

0z Euro sends a weak TS into South Carolina. Developement begins to occur as early as 48 hrs.

[SFLcane]

Interesting times ahead if the models are correct. Shows one these wave heading wnw under a building ridge to its north tracking towards sfl/keys and into gulf. euorpean,canadian,ukmet all showing development now.

Here is the nogaps 00z

[cycloneye]

06z GFS=Caribbean cruiser into GOM.

[ronjon]

06z GFS brings this system to western cuba and into the GOM as a tropical storm. And into Galveston/Houston as a hurricane.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014081906/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

[ronjon]

00z CMC (obviously overdone) brings a strong hurricane through the FL straits and into coastal Miss.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014081900/gem_mslp_wind_watl.html

[ronjon]

00z ECM on board with a weaker system up the east coast of FL. I think the NHC will up the long range chances of development now based on the model support.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014081900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[abajan]

06z GFS brings this system to western cuba and into the GOM as a tropical storm. And into Galveston/Houston as a hurricane.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014081906/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

Doesn't the central pressure need to be around 984 millibars to support a hurricane? I think it varies according to latitude ... I can't remember.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014


A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N51W TO 21N55W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. 700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...HOWEVER SUBTLE
INDICATION IS THAT THE AXIS HAS CROSSED 50W DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ALSO FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY
OF 14N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
51W-54W...AND FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 57W-59W.

[perk]

06z GFS=Caribbean cruiser into GOM.

Wow it's been awhile since I saw a model run like that,glad it's long range.

[somethingfunny]

You should see the 00z GEM. This is the first time we've had a significant storm showing up on several models for at least one run cycle. It's probably not going to follow this Isaac-style track or strengthen right off the coast of Cuba like that, but between this and the GFS showing a generalized pattern conducive for a storm to enter the Gulf and thrive there as well, I think we've just entered "Bears Watching" territory for this one. Let's see if the 12z models continue to develop this and where they send it.

[perk]

If these models are still showing similiar tracks this weekend things are gonna get interesting.

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible later
this week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[northjaxpro]

00z ECM on board with a weaker system up the east coast of FL. I think the NHC will up the long range chances of development now based on the model support.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014081900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

If the trends continue with the models, then yes, NHC will up the percentages long range.

[tolakram]

I'm getting lost in the waves here, but is the euro showing this system?

Copied from a post I made in the globals thread...


The euro now has a system running over or just north of the islands and up the east coast.

[Blown Away]

Euro has our wave as a pimple off Jacksonville in 10 days.

[Alyono]

NHC refuses to bite, still 10/20 on the probs

[tolakram]

What wave is this thread about? I'm going to make another post in the global thread. UKMet and Euro develop different features that end up near the same spot in 5 days. I think they are picking up on improved conditions but not locking into what wave will develop.