Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

[BobHarlem]

All I'll say is next stop, West Palm Beach, FL.

GFS has it around Jacksonville to Savannah. Not needed at all after Matthew last year.

Don going to Mar a Lago would be amazing, though. (not for folks in S. Florida though)

[Kingarabian]

GFS has to be way too strong with this right guys? Has there ever been a storm off the East Coast this time of the year near 950 mb?

I'd believe it but this solution lacks support in many ways.

1. CCKW, negating factor.
2. The GFS itself is on and off with it.
3. Euro, Euro Parallel, GFS Parallel, and the UKMET do not make much out of it, much less a 950mb hurricane.
4. Lacks ensemble support.

[weathaguyry]

Oh, just your average Mid-July Category 4 Hurricane paralleling the Florida Coast

[tarheelprogrammer]

Oh, just your average Mid-July Category 4 Hurricane paralleling the Florida Coast

Just like any typical July recently.

[weathaguyry]

Stays at 10/40 for 8PM TWO

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is currently producing a large area of cloudiness and
showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some gradual development of this system during the next several days
while it moves generally westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

[TheStormExpert]

The 5-day development cone has shrunk hinting that they expect this to develop slightly sooner then previously expected.



Doesn't look like much at all now. But some of the big guys that went on to affect the U.S. down the road started as not much. (Ex. Katrina, Andrew, etc.)

[Nimbus]

Is that bulge in the 1016 isobar hinting at a missed weakness between the highs on the Saturday the 15th frame?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Oh, just your average Mid-July Category 4 Hurricane paralleling the Florida Coast

Every season the GFS will target Florida with a major system , it's like watching
re-runs of a old tv series.

[Nimbus]

Glad they are holding off on the invest, an earlier or later spin up makes a huge difference in the forecast.

[gfsperpendicular]

Oh, just your average Mid-July Category 4 Hurricane paralleling the Florida Coast

...how about... no?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Might not mean much but remember just a few weeks ago with our weak wanna be tropical storm the gfs was constantly developing it much stronger than most models and also kept showing it making landfall much much further east than all models as well. Could be over amplifying the strength of the trough again, like it has a history of doing. Not saying it will happen again but just something to keep in the back of ones mind.

[TheStormExpert]

At it's peak.

[tarheelprogrammer]

At it's peak.

Watch the 0z run come in, and it be 1010 mb lol struggling to survive. Long range struggles, which is common. Hard for any model to get anything right 240+ hours out.

[floridasun78]

Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

that look matthew that want up fl coast

[floridasun78]

it look in area dry air dont see storm forming with wave yet need go area were storm can form with wave

[AutoPenalti]

At it's peak.

http://i65.tinypic.com/6z4lkn.jpg

Watch the 0z run come in, and it be 1010 mb lol struggling to survive. Long range struggles, which is common. Hard for any model to get anything right 240+ hours out.

Or just an open wave

[OuterBanker]

Oh, just your average Mid-July Category 4 Hurricane paralleling the Florida Coast

A wiscasters dream I see. Has the GFS officially taken over the CMC? Or has the CMC invaded the GFS? I feel that An investigation should be started by Congress.

[RL3AO]

A wiscasters dream I see. Has the GFS officially taken over the CMC? Or has the CMC invaded the GFS? I feel that An investigation should be started by Congress.

Current version of the GFS is dead in four weeks anyway.

[hurricanetrack]

I find it telling that the NHC outlook text does NOT include: before conditions become unfavorable later in the week (or what ever).

Hmmmmm.