Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the 06z GFS is up to its old tricks again...plows it right into a ridge. Not seeing what erodes the ridge here. Maybe I’m just missing it.


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The ridge weakens?

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the 06z GFS is up to its old tricks again...plows it right into a ridge. Not seeing what erodes the ridge here. Maybe I’m just missing it.


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The ridge weakens?

Yeah, but I’m not seeing anything there to weaken it. We know the GFS has a bad habit of overdoing weaknesses in ridges. It has always wanted to turn things poleward too soon.


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[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[SouthFLTropics]

40/80...this is bound to get tagged as an Invest real soon.


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[SFLcane]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/cj0kkZK.png

NHC hinting at a quick recurve? Potentially

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/cj0kkZK.png

NHC hinting at a quick recurve? Potentially

Although the red arrow points to the west.

[gatorcane]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/cj0kkZK.png

NHC hinting at a quick recurve? Potentially

Looks close to the mean GFS parallel ensemble track. What a change in the overnight runs which have swung to showing this potentially missing the islands even. If it deepens quickly, it is possible as wouldn’t take much of a weakness to turn it more poleward

[DestinHurricane]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/cj0kkZK.png

NHC hinting at a quick recurve? Potentially

Did you not read the words "generally westward"?

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the 06z GFS is up to its old tricks again...plows it right into a ridge. Not seeing what erodes the ridge here. Maybe I’m just missing it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The ridge weakens?

Yeah, but I’m not seeing anything there to weaken it. We know the GFS has a bad habit of overdoing weaknesses in ridges. It has always wanted to turn things poleward too soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Paulette.

[TheStormExpert]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/cj0kkZK.png

NHC hinting at a quick recurve? Potentially

Did you not read the words "gradually westward"?

Well then why do they turn the 5-day 'cone' northwestward? Smells fishy to me!

[SFLcane]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/cj0kkZK.png

NHC hinting at a quick recurve? Potentially

Looks close to the mean GFS parallel ensemble track. What a change in the overnight runs which have swung to showing this potentially missing the islands even. If it deepens quickly, it is possible as wouldn’t take much of a weakness to turn it more poleward

https://i.postimg.cc/KjY0hWdY/gfs-ememb-para-lowlocs-eatl-fh48-168.gif

Yep, ensembles sure heading that way. EPS will probably go north this afternoon.

[SFLcane]

06z Euro...not bad but way East of yesterday’s runs.

I Think EPS is probably gonna give up on the southern group.

[TheStormExpert]

Unless this fails to spin-up prior to 50-60ºW I have a very hard time seeing this become a U.S. threat as I've been stating over and over again the 500mb pattern is very progressive and these ridges that do build can quickly be eroded especially with Paulette and Rene lurking out there making this easier.

[SFLcane]

I just don’t see that super fast west solution happening pretty confident European ensembles will slowly come north.

[AutoPenalti]

Not sure how much I buy the whole sudden shift in track. As stated the pattern seems progressive, which means it's a matter on whether A) Sally develops quickly, Rene lingers long enough to erode the periphery of CATL ridge, which may explain the whole "plowing through the ridge" scenario depicted by the GFS. B) Sally doesn't strengthen until past 60W and slides underneath the ridge, develops as it gets closer to the Islands. C) Sally hardly develops as depicted from the Euro Op from 06z, continues west as a sharp axis.

So each run could change just as quickly from any sort of impacts to OTS runs.

[SFLcane]

06z eps still fairly south heading towards the islands. Potentially

[toad strangler]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/cj0kkZK.png

NHC hinting at a quick recurve? Potentially

Did you not read the words "gradually westward"?

*generally

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

Visible loop of René and the low pressure with wave about to emerge West Africa.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... HyT53X_Kk#

[SFLcane]

Another vantage point...