Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[TheStormExpert]

At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if the remaining models drop development before development begins.

[Jr0d]

At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if the remaining models drop development before development begins.

Still a bit of support from the ensembles. With Zeta, there was still a fair amount of ensemble support after it was dropped by everyone except the ICON. That said the ICON is still showing a low close off around Nov 1st.

This thread will explode if whatever may develop down there starts to look like a threat to Florida, though it will likely not have the time to become as long as the pre-Zeta thread because it is unlikely development will be pushed back a week++.

[cp79]

Here in central Fla, looks like a couple fronts forecast to move through in the next week. I just think that’s gonna keep this storm from at least impacting the US...maybe extreme South Fla could be on alert but I think this turns out to sea as it gets cauth by the front.

[Emmett_Brown]

While patterns never repeat exactly, this whole setup looks so similar to what we just saw with Zeta. First the models develop intensely at long range, then send it out to the NE across Cuba/Bahamas. Then they start dropping the system while the ensembles continue to show development. My take is development in the NW Caribbean is probably going to happen, but this time I think the storm may stall/meander for a while over the NW Caribbean. Where it goes after that is impossible to guess, but a more N track this time seems reasonable as soon as the ridging starts to weaken. If this storm forms, FL is not necessarily off the hook IMO.

[northjaxpro]

Here in central Fla, looks like a couple fronts forecast to move through in the next week. I just think that’s gonna keep this storm from at least impacting the US...maybe extreme South Fla could be on alert but I think this turns out to sea as it gets cauth by the front.

This is the beauty and unfortunate danger with this intrigue of this situation. Climatology certainly dictates that whatever comes out of the Caribbean would get picked up, especially as we start the month of November. However, 2020 has been as atypical as I have seen any season in the tropics EVER! Look at what we have seenj just in the last 6 weeks, with storms one after the other going straight to Louisiana.

I am going with the approach to take nothing off the table with how the pattern will evolve going into next week.Stay woke folks!!

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC into the Yucatan. Is it July or November? Nothing but ridging

[gatorcane]

Poof on the 12Z GFS

[AutoPenalti]

Poof on the 12Z GFS

...and so it begins.

[SFLcane]

Poof on the 12Z GFS

Meh..take a look at the ensembles.

[aspen]

Poof on the 12Z GFS

Oh look at that, the GFS dropping a major hurricane and showing a sloppy, broad, double-lobed precursor with difficulty concentrating. Where have I seen this before? Hmmmmmmm

[SFLcane]

Development is expected..

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF -PArent for Zeta...

Showing Eta coming pretty quickly starting in 3 to 5 days..

[SFLcane]

HWRF -PArent for Zeta...

Showing Eta coming pretty quickly starting in 3 to 5 days..

https://i.ibb.co/stPv12h/hwrf-p-sat-IR-28-L-fh90-126.gif

Look at that.

[SFLcane]

Poof on the 12Z GFS

Yea not so much.

[northjaxpro]

Also of interest is what looks to be more energy just behind potential Eta following on its heels on the HWRF

[TheStormExpert]

Poof on the 12Z GFS

Just as I expected. Deja vu back to pre-Zeta.

[LarryWx]

keep in mind that the 12Z GFS and GEFS are both coming in much colder for much of the US vs earlier runs fwiw.

[TheStormExpert]

keep in mind that the 12Z GFS and GEFS are both coming in much colder for much of the US vs earlier runs fwiw.

As in less threatening?

[LarryWx]

keep in mind that the 12Z GFS and GEFS are both coming in much colder for much of the US vs earlier runs fwiw.

As in less threatening?

I can't tell. I just wanted to point out that what's north of the tropics looks very different this run since the atmosphere there is often an influence on TCs below it in some way, shape, or form as regards track and intensity. This run could be off, of course.