Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[SFLcane]

I guess they lowered numbers because of the lack of storms in July. Does seem kind of odd since SSTAs and ENSO are more favourable than they were at the time of the last forecast, but I'm sure there are many other factors.

The MJO and SAL are why there has been no activity in July. The models saw that coming. It seems odd that the CSU would lower its numbers due to intraseasonal variation, yet NOAA increased its numbers despite intraseasonal variation.

They use a new predictor based on a blend of the Euro + UKMET seasonal. Showed above normal shear for peak season so I think that went into it.

[Category5Kaiju]

I guess they lowered numbers because of the lack of storms in July. Does seem kind of odd since SSTAs and ENSO are more favourable than they were at the time of the last forecast, but I'm sure there are many other factors.

The MJO and SAL are why there has been no activity in July. The models saw that coming. It seems odd that the CSU would lower its numbers due to intraseasonal variation, yet NOAA increased its numbers despite intraseasonal variation.

They use a new predictor based on a blend of the Euro + UKMET seasonal. Showed above normal shear for peak season so I think that went into it.

Yeah, I mean with a -ENSO (with a good possibility of a weak Nina later this year), I find it somewhat strange that above normal shear is predicted based on those models. Is there something they are seeing that we aren't is the question

[toad strangler]

NOAA slight addition and CSU slight reduction both have the same results. Busy season. Buckle up.

[captainbarbossa19]

Either way, I think the consensus that an 18-21 NS season could be very well in the cards is definitely quite alarming. It seems like CSU lowered the numbers for this reason though:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1423313849881710593

In my opinion, one should use more than just model guidance as justification for changing an outlook. They have been quite a bit off for the past several years.

[Category5Kaiju]

Either way, I think the consensus that an 18-21 NS season could be very well in the cards is definitely quite alarming. It seems like CSU lowered the numbers for this reason though:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1423313849881710593

In my opinion, one should use more than just model guidance as justification for changing an outlook. They have been quite a bit off for the past several years.

Tbh I'd have to agree; this is why I personally am a bigger fan of ranges like NOAA does than hard numbers, but that's just me

[tolakram]

Added TSR August 18/7/3 (see first post)

I really like how they include skill.



Compared with their July forecast:

[cycloneye]

Both CSU and TSR forecasts are posted on the first post on the PDF form.

[AlphaToOmega]

I am not sure why the TSR lowered its forecast. The lull period in July was seen from a mile away! The only things that made July inactive were the SAL and MJO. It seems odd that their forecasts would be lowered simply due to what happened in July, which is intraseasonal variation. Everything that happened in July was a result of an unfavorable MJO phase.

[CyclonicFury]

I am not sure why the TSR lowered its forecast. The lull period in July was seen from a mile away! The only things that made July inactive were the SAL and MJO. It seems odd that their forecasts would be lowered simply due to what happened in July, which is intraseasonal variation. Everything that happened in July was a result of an unfavorable MJO phase.

They didn't lower their forecast because of the July lull. They lowered their forecast because the Atlantic meridional mode was slightly negative in July, as well as only slightly weaker than normal trade winds over the tropical Atlantic - factors they determined were not favorable for a hyperactive season.

[SFLcane]

DR. Ryan Truchelut is forecasting a season of 19/9/4 from weather tiger in his August update.

Folks get ready.

[CFLHurricane]

DR. Ryan Truchelut is forecasting a season of 19/9/4 from weather tiger in his August update.

Folks get ready.

Here’s to driving our significant others crazy with Hurricane talk!

[cycloneye]

DR. Ryan Truchelut is forecasting a season of 19/9/4 from weather tiger in his August update.

Folks get ready.

Do you have the link? Going to post it at the list at first post.

[SFLcane]

DR. Ryan Truchelut is forecasting a season of 19/9/4 from weather tiger in his August update.

Folks get ready.

Do you have the link? Going to post it at the list at first post.

Will be out I think on Monday.

[AtlanticWind]

I think again the number of Hurricanes predicted by a lot of experts could be low.

If Grace and Henri become hurricanes as forecasted we will have 3 hurricanes before August 21.
When the bulk of the season and what many think could be a season that will stay active late into the season
I am thinkng that we will end up with 10+ hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

CSU has the next 2 weeks forecast that is near normal. First Post List.

[cycloneye]

CSU next 2 weeks will be above normal.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1433411152503967752

[cycloneye]

Normal next two weeks according to the 2 week forecast by CSU from September 16-29.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1438658709203214342

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1443626904494374913

[cycloneye]

CSU forecasts next two weeks to be normal.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121643

[SFLcane]

Normal next two weeks according to the 2 week forecast by CSU from September 16-29.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1438658709203214342

Lol What… Phil K can’t go wrong with that call.