Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[Keldeo1997]

Might be time to put the GFS out to pasture after this lack of consistency

Its the same as 18Z but just slower

[skyline385]

Might be time to put the GFS out to pasture after this lack of consistency

Its the same as 18Z but just slower

Yea at 150h it looks just like 18Z

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[BobHarlem]

0z GFS is slightly to the right of 18z, but pretty much the same, although it may wind up going right over Florida on this run.

[lsuhurricane]

Completely different upper level pattern across the CONUS. Big front sweeping this out from the Caribbean

[SoupBone]

Looks like it's sending it OTS, maybe scraping south Florida

[skyline385]

Well that looks like the end for it this run, that front is swinging it OTS, may scrap SFL on the way out

[SoupBone]

Now it's stuck on the east side of Florida. Getting trapped by a high?

[BobHarlem]

East Florida Coast rider here

[skyline385]

Now it's stuck on the east side of Florida. Getting trapped by a high?

What a mess of a run lol

[Teban54]

Looks like short-term track before Cuba will have significant impacts on intensity and possibly long-term track. 0z GFS has the system clip the tallest mountains of Cuba and also gives it much less time over water, so it no longer becomes a hurricane before Cuba landfall.

This is assuming a track similar to GFS operational, of course. Ensembles and other models suggest the system may move significantly more westward than the operational shows.

[SoupBone]

Now it's stuck on the east side of Florida. Getting trapped by a high?

What a mess of a run lol

Yeah it's very slowly riding the spine of Florida. They'd get dumped on at this pace.

[BobHarlem]

Savannah

[skyline385]

Its on a mission to destroy the SE coast, fulfill what Mathew failed to do

[lsuhurricane]

GFS ensembles are still very active and a few are stronger in the short term

[SoupBone]

GFS ensembles are still very active and a few are stronger in the short term

Update?

[skyline385]

0Z vs 18Z GEFS, seems to be slightly less members this run

[LarryWx]

Savannah

https://i.imgur.com/rA54kJw.png

The good news (or more accurately the not as bad news) IF that highly unlikely scenario were to occur is that the storm would NOT strengthen from 984 mb at Jupiter inlet to 969 mb just off Brunswick when skirting the coast like that. The GFS is clearly exhibiting an overstrengthening bias considering it is barely offshore, which means much of the storm is inland. Not realistic.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1562383811672940544

[skyline385]

EPS showing a decent amount of members now




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[MHC Tracking]

Savannah

https://i.imgur.com/rA54kJw.png

The good news (or more accurately the not as bad news) IF that highly unlikely scenario were to occur is that the storm would NOT strengthen from 984 mb at Jupiter inlet to 969 mb just off Brunswick when skirting the coast like that. The GFS is clearly exhibiting an overstrengthening bias considering it is barely offshore, which means much of the storm is inland. Not realistic.

Not necessarily, the curvature of the coastline could induce tightening -> pressure falls ->intensification