Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

[chaser1]

Looking to see convection fire up around 23N 70W by tomorrow morning.
Expecting development during the day then.

You think? That just seems to be quite a jump for energy from that small vort center SW of PR to transfer that far northward & begin to coalesce. I was kind of thinking a broad COC just north of D.R. by late tomm. maybe?

[underthwx]

For my friends/fellow members to potentially be affected by this developing system, especially in all areas affected by Ian, I sure don't want to see yall have to deal with this. Be well.

[gatorcane]

Agreed that UKMET model run is interesting. Euro took a step towards the GFS and UKMET.

[GCANE]

Looking to see convection fire up around 23N 70W by tomorrow morning.
Expecting development during the day then.

You think? That just seems to be quite a jump for energy from that small vort center SW of PR to transfer that far northward & begin to coalesce. I was kind of thinking a broad COC just north of D.R. by late tomm. maybe?

I am thinking it'll start to form under the cutoff UL Low which is north of Hispaniola.
Tons of moisture there, something not typical of an UL Low

[Blown Away]

12z EURO… Circulation more defined than all previous runs… Moves through Key Largo in GOM, then 180 back to Ft Myers…

[HurricaneBelle]

Would be something if that Euro run verified. November tracks are always the craziest (Gordon, Eta).

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS… Much stronger members with numerous Cat 1’s.

[chaser1]

:uarrow:

That "40% within 48 hr.s" is a bit disconcerting considering only a broad area low pressure. GCANE may be right about that small spin southwest of PR. I assumed it would simply be the first of multiple eddies until a more cohesive LLC were to try and develop north of the Greater Antilles under a more centralized convective mass.

Get concerned at 70+

For me at least, "real concern" will begin with an increase in <990 mb model support That's when very interesting morphs into very concerning

[chaser1]

Looking to see convection fire up around 23N 70W by tomorrow morning.
Expecting development during the day then.

You think? That just seems to be quite a jump for energy from that small vort center SW of PR to transfer that far northward & begin to coalesce. I was kind of thinking a broad COC just north of D.R. by late tomm. maybe?

I am thinking it'll start to form under the cutoff UL Low which is north of Hispaniola.
Tons of moisture there, something not typical of an UL Low

That really would be an interesting evolution!! I'm trying to recall top-end intensity potential examples from similar type past storms.......

[Blown Away]

:uarrow:

That "40% within 48 hr.s" is a bit disconcerting considering only a broad area low pressure. GCANE may be right about that small spin southwest of PR. I assumed it would simply be the first of multiple eddies until a more cohesive LLC were to try and develop north of the Greater Antilles under a more centralized convective mass.

Get concerned at 70+

For me at least, "real concern" will begin with an increase in <990 mb model support That's when very interesting morphs into very concerning

990 mb can be a solid 75-85 mph hurricane with gusts over 90 mph and it could be developing as it approaches FL.

[blp]

12z Ukmet

Ukmet

[gatorcane]

JMA with a WSW dip, some ridge:

[Blown Away]

JMA with a WSW dip, some ridge:

https://i.postimg.cc/T1VnyWHf/jma-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh0-168.gif

Looks like JMA low goes N over DR and currently does appear the low is going through Mona Pass & W PR.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1588961247378432000

[Blown Away]

Lots of angry weather already over PR & DR… It’s usually easier for a system to pull together when it’s not lacking lots of deep convection…

[GCANE]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0135 PM EDT SAT 05 NOVEMBER 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-162 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 07/1200Z (CHANGED)
B. NOAA3 01KKA TDR
C. 07/0800Z (CHANGED)
D. 24.5N 71.0W
E. 07/0900Z TO 07/1500Z
F. 10,000 TO 25,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 25.0N 72.0W FOR 07/1730Z.
B. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS,
DEPARTING KLAL AT 07/2000Z AND 08/0800Z.

[LarryWx]

Get concerned at 70+

For me at least, "real concern" will begin with an increase in <990 mb model support That's when very interesting morphs into very concerning

990 mb can be a solid 75-85 mph hurricane with gusts over 90 mph and it could be developing as it approaches FL.

Especially with the progged 1038 mb high near NYC, which is 20 mb higher than the 1018 mean. So, a 990 vs 1038 means a whopping 48 mb gradient from NYC to S FL! That's the same gradient as a 970 in S FL and 1018 at NYC. Now I'm not saying a 970 in S FL with 1018 at NYC would produce the same winds on the SE coast of FL as a 990 in S FL and 1038 in NYC since the 970 H would be much more wound up. But the higher gradient due to the much higher than normal NYC SLP would still be a factor for SE FL winds and should easily make any 990 a solid cat 1 H. Also, this high gradient from S FL TC to very high NYC SLP may actually be more of a factor for upping winds well away from the TC further up the E coast of FL and up the SE US coast. Even without a strong TC, gales are anticipated up through the Carolina coasts! A lot more than S FL would be involved with heavy wx.

[toad strangler]

A couple of these runs are showing a boomerang like return to the peninsula after initial passage. Real strong ridging keeps it S and then quickly slips out to bring it back. Crazy.

[ThunderForce]

I'd really love to hear what wxman57 thinks about this storm so far. The fact that both GFS and CMC are anticipating a hurricane really concerns me.

[GCANE]

Afternoon popups starting to form over Haiti and western DR.
The moisture debris will feed into the system overnight and also help to degrade the UL Low.
Two factors that contribute to development.