Expert Forecasts for the 2024 NATL Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

Any doubts about the forecasts should be adequately dispelled, now. Btw, expect upward adjustments in August

CSU and TSR will have updated forecasts in the comming days before the August ones. They for sure will go up. TSR on July 5th and CSU on the 11th.

[weeniepatrol]

Any doubts about the forecasts should be adequately dispelled, now. Btw, expect upward adjustments in August

CSU and TSR will have updated forecasts in the comming days before the August ones. They for sure will go up. TSR on July 5th and CSU on the 11th.

Thanks for the information. I was thinking of NOAA, I believe. Look forward to seeing their updates; this is madness

[Beef Stew]

CSU June analogs: 1878, 1926, 1998, 2005, 2010, 2020.

Note: these are all hyperactive seasons.

2005 is a big new addition to the June analogs… Wow

So far, looking like it was a good addition...

[Teban54]

Any doubts about the forecasts should be adequately dispelled, now. Btw, expect upward adjustments in August

CSU and TSR will have updated forecasts in the comming days before the August ones. They for sure will go up. TSR on July 5th and CSU on the 11th.

At the very least, I expect +1 in both H and MH counts. Their forecasts probably didn't expect any of the MHs to occur in June or early July.

[weeniepatrol]

Any doubts about the forecasts should be adequately dispelled, now. Btw, expect upward adjustments in August

CSU and TSR will have updated forecasts in the comming days before the August ones. They for sure will go up. TSR on July 5th and CSU on the 11th.

At the very least, I expect +1 in both H and MH counts. Their forecasts probably didn't expect any of the MHs to occur in June or early July.

Direct quotes straight from the CPC outlook, emphasis mine:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... cane.shtml

This 2024 seasonal hurricane outlook reflects the expectation of either complementary or reinforcing climate factors during August-October (ASO),

Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during the peak months (August-October, ASO) of the hurricane season.

I'm thinking we can take their ACE and MH hurricane forecast and literally just add Beryl to them, based off of this

[zzzh]

TSR July update: 26/13/6 ace 240.

[al78]

TSR July update: 26/13/6 ace 240.

You mush have got that from a media source as I haven't published the forecast to the general public yet. It is correct though.

[kevin]

TSR updates (May 30 vs July 5)
Link to July 5 document: https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastJuly2024.pdf

ACE: 226 -> 240
MH: 6 -> 6
H: 12 -> 13
TS: 24 -> 26

US ACE: 4.9 -> 5.6
US H: 3 -> 4
US TS: 5 -> 7

[zzzh]

TSR July update: 26/13/6 ace 240.

You mush have got that from a media source as I haven't published the forecast to the general public yet. It is correct though.

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/
I got it from here, the folder is visible to the public.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1810416466383998982

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1810416466383998982

The fact that Beryl takes the spot for the first image speaks wonders.

I'm very curious to see CSU's thoughts on the (slightly) less active seasonal model runs and the (slightly) less anomalous SSTs. I personally don't think they're issues, but it seems that at least a few people think they are.

[toad strangler]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1810416466383998982

The fact that Beryl takes the spot for the first image speaks wonders.

I'm very curious to see CSU's thoughts on the (slightly) less active seasonal model runs and the (slightly) less anomalous SSTs. I personally don't think they're issues, but it seems that at least a few people think they are.

Everyone has been so keyed in on the avalanche of very active indicators since winter that any deviation from that causes over correction in the mind. CSU update tomorrow will be very interesting.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1810416466383998982

The fact that Beryl takes the spot for the first image speaks wonders.

I'm very curious to see CSU's thoughts on the (slightly) less active seasonal model runs and the (slightly) less anomalous SSTs. I personally don't think they're issues, but it seems that at least a few people think they are.

Everyone has been so keyed in on the avalanche of very active indicators since winter that any deviation from that causes over correction in the mind. CSU update tomorrow will be very interesting.

250+ ACE, here we go!

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1810416466383998982

The fact that Beryl takes the spot for the first image speaks wonders.

I'm very curious to see CSU's thoughts on the (slightly) less active seasonal model runs and the (slightly) less anomalous SSTs. I personally don't think they're issues, but it seems that at least a few people think they are.

Everyone has been so keyed in on the avalanche of very active indicators since winter that any deviation from that causes over correction in the mind. CSU update tomorrow will be very interesting.

Yeah I agree; it's totally normal and understandable at this point to try and look at anything, just anything, that could indicate that this could be a season that even mildly underperforms. Whether it's a single precip map that shows OTS tracks or the purported warm blob off Canada. The freakshow that was Beryl was bad enough.

Unfortunately, the MDR is still extremely warm compared to the vast majority of past seasons, and hurricane season does not peak until August and September, as we've seen even with years like 2005 and 1933. I think at this point we need to accept what is coming and be as prepared as we can for it and help others in the meantime. Wishing that this season will be milder than anticipated is all understandable, though. I totally get it.

[cycloneye]

Comming shortly will be the CSU July update. IMO, Phil will go up from the 220 june ACE number.

[toad strangler]

Forecast Parameters CSU Forecast for 2024* Average for 1991-2020
Named Storms 25 14.4
Named Storm Days 120 69.4
Hurricanes 12 7.2
Hurricane Days 50 27.0
Major Hurricanes 6 3.2
Major Hurricane Days 16 7.4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)+ 230 123
ACE West of 60 degrees longitude 140 73

*CSU released its first seasonal forecast for 2024 on Thursday, April 4th, and an updated forecast on July 9th.

We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season. This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.


Complete forecast https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-07.pdf

[cycloneye]

The asterisck is for the three that have formed so 22 more.

[zal0phus]

Season cancellers in shambles right now

[Hurricane2022]

Warm blob near newfoundland is going to cap the season potential!!

[toad strangler]

I guess "blob" is the buzz word for this year