Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[ROCK]

Certainly could have a western GOM solution but given the time of year (3rd week of Sept) just based on climatology would cause you to think central or eastern GOM. The models are showing landfall in 9 to 10 days and we all know how reliable upper air forecasts are for that time frame (hint: not very). I've seen a lot posts about we don't have a center formed yet so we don't know where it will go but I think more crucially we won't know 500 mb synoptics well until at least 4 to 5 days out.

Hurricane Lili, Hurricane Rita, Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Delta were all after September 15th. It’s very possible for a western solution

I would agree in those examples…need more model runs!!

[Ptarmigan]

Certainly could have a western GOM solution but given the time of year (3rd week of Sept) just based on climatology would cause you to think central or eastern GOM. The models are showing landfall in 9 to 10 days and we all know how reliable upper air forecasts are for that time frame (hint: not very). I've seen a lot posts about we don't have a center formed yet so we don't know where it will go but I think more crucially we won't know 500 mb synoptics well until at least 4 to 5 days out.

Hurricane Lili, Hurricane Rita, Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Delta were all after September 15th. It’s very possible for a western solution

I would agree in those examples…need more model runs!!

Major hurricanes can make landfall in October in the Western Gulf Of Mexico. I would not be surprised if it happens more often prior to records being kept.

[Stormlover70]

No models are accurate at this point.

[TomballEd]

Certainly could have a western GOM solution but given the time of year (3rd week of Sept) just based on climatology would cause you to think central or eastern GOM. The models are showing landfall in 9 to 10 days and we all know how reliable upper air forecasts are for that time frame (hint: not very). I've seen a lot posts about we don't have a center formed yet so we don't know where it will go but I think more crucially we won't know 500 mb synoptics well until at least 4 to 5 days out.

Hurricane Lili, Hurricane Rita, Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Delta were all after September 15th. It’s very possible for a western solution

Ike was not after September 15.

[LAF92]

Certainly could have a western GOM solution but given the time of year (3rd week of Sept) just based on climatology would cause you to think central or eastern GOM. The models are showing landfall in 9 to 10 days and we all know how reliable upper air forecasts are for that time frame (hint: not very). I've seen a lot posts about we don't have a center formed yet so we don't know where it will go but I think more crucially we won't know 500 mb synoptics well until at least 4 to 5 days out.

Hurricane Lili, Hurricane Rita, Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Delta were all after September 15th. It’s very possible for a western solution

Ike was not after September 15.

September 13th points still valid

[StPeteMike]

No models are accurate at this point.

Currently, they all are just a conversation starter on potential scenarios. With development expected Monday, if the models continue to show development in the Northern Caribbean, I say chances are high that something will form. Give it Saturday/Sunday to start taking the models with some weight to them.

[ROCK]

Hurricane Lili, Hurricane Rita, Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Delta were all after September 15th. It’s very possible for a western solution

I would agree in those examples…need more model runs!!

Major hurricanes can make landfall in October in the Western Gulf Of Mexico. I would not be surprised if it happens more often prior to records being kept.

Typically the westerlies kick in Oct and Texas is pretty much done. There has been a few into Texas.

October 1867: Category 2, "Galveston", near Brownsville
October 1886: Category 3, unnamed, near the TX/LA state line
October 1912: Category 2, unnamed, near Padre Island
October 1949: Category 2, unnamed, near Freeport
October 1989: Category 1, Jerry, on Galveston Island

[TomballEd]

Hurricane Lili, Hurricane Rita, Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Delta were all after September 15th. It’s very possible for a western solution

Ike was not after September 15.

September 13th points still valid

Actually, the later in the year, the less favored. The 28th or 29th is two weeks after September 15. And throwing out storm names because you want something to be true without checking is sloppy.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Why is it always Louisiana getting wiped off the map? Geez

Dem models love to send a storm to visit us for sure lol with louisiana being in central gulf and strong storms trending north, we always in the bullseye at least once per gulf storm lol

[LAF92]

Ike was not after September 15.

September 13th points still valid

Actually, the later in the year, the less favored. And throwing out storm names because you want something to be true without checking is sloppy.

Obviously later in the year less likely, no need to be a smart ass. I’m not trying to make anything true. Like I said my point is still valid. You can get hurricanes in the western gulf from mid September on.

[TomballEd]

Why is it always Louisiana getting wiped off the map? Geez

Dem models love to send a storm to visit us for sure lol with louisiana being in central gulf and strong storms trending north, we always in the bullseye at least once per gulf storm lol

Louisiana is open to storms from the E from the beginning of the season, and open from Caribbean storms well into October. Florida is sort of like that, but one coast is favored, then the other.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well if this system is going to become a major this weekend (Sunday) will be a bit late for officials to make a cohesive decision to evacuate a given area. As I remember for Ida the many pros and the NHC were quick to pull the trigger on getting people in SELA out of harms way before Ida was a CAT1.

Oh come on now. It's not going to become a major this weekend. The weekend is only 3 to 4 days away and it's not even a system yet.

[TomballEd]

September 13th points still valid

Actually, the later in the year, the less favored. And throwing out storm names because you want something to be true without checking is sloppy.

Obviously later in the year less likely, no need to be a smart ass. Like I said my point is still valid. You can get hurricanes in the western gulf from mid September on.

I kind of define IMBY as the W. Gulf. I can tell you what day a Cat 2 made landfall just S of Houston in 1949 and what day a badly sheared Cat 1 made landfall near here in 1989. Granted, that was the week of Texas-OU, and I was at the game, and massive underdog Texas won. Bed time.

[Stratton23]

ICON 00z big shift west, just off the northern mexican coast at hour 180 and headed north

[Steve]

ICON 00z big shift west, just off the northern mexican coast at hour 180 and headed north

Gonna crash soon. I’ll hopefully randomly wake up middle of the night and run GFS CMC and AI euro for some ideas.

[Fancy1002]

I’ve got a bad feeling about this run

[SouthFLTropics]

It seems lately that the late night drinking GFS really tries to outdo Happy Hour GFS…. Geez, down to 934MB at 198 hours.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Pelicane]

It's uneasy how large the GFS is making this storm. Usually when they get intense in the model it's because they're smaller. Hopefully the model is off about that and the conducive conditions because if not... yikes.

[Teban54]

[Pelicane]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/x8c6DfMd/image.png

Tropical force winds span almost the entire gulf. Down to 928 mb and slowing down and maybe turning east?