Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic (10/60)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week.
This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20
mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the vicinity
of the Leeward Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[eastcoastFL]

12z euro ensembles..

https://i.postimg.cc/xdQp13Rc/vvvv.png

Looks like the furthest south track is the strongest. At least as best I can tell from the bunch. Which also wouldn't be great for the Caribbean and possibly the Gulf of Mexico.

[zhukm29]

An absolute chonker wave just splashed down behind the 10/60 wave. Curious to see if it will have any effect on the wave in front.

[Tekken_Guy]

Wouldn’t be a happy hour GFS without the devastation of a major US city

Or our annual “destroy NYC” run. Fiona and Lee all teased an NYC hit.

[Stratton23]

Convection has managed to persist all day in the area where their is some low level spin south of 10 N or the south end of the wave, the part of the wave that the GFS and Euro develop really doesnt have much convective activity at all, im definitely wary that they are picking up on the wrong vort max

[HurricaneBelle]

Don't confuse this 18z run here with Erin, with the OBX near miss, but it goes for long island after this.

https://i.imgur.com/yxO9ZSN.png

Hey it's my namesake! (but stronger)

[txwxwatcher]

GFS looks like its still developing the northern portion of the wave, based on satellite imagery, i have my doubts that global models are seeing this in real time all that good, if this southern portion becomes the dominant low, that will have absolutely significant effects on a track

That’s what I was thinking. Also the 12z ICON has a strong trough bring a front to the gulf coast, I’m not buying that on August

Well, for what it’s worth we have a summer front arriving in Houston on Thursday.

https://abc13.com/post/houston-weather- ... ons/39346/

[Jr0d]

Wouldn’t be a happy hour GFS without the devastation of a major US city

Or our annual “destroy NYC” run. Fiona and Lee all teased an NYC hit.

We really need to make a tally of GFS runs that destroy major population areas each season. Seems like it happens 100+ times each season with many of the long range storms being phantoms.

Unfortunately that 0.1% of the time it is on to a storm, few of us take it seriously.

[StPeteMike]

Stubborn AOI, likely another full day tomorrow of guessing game on which area of vorticity gains the upper hand. Still leaning on the southern end, the convection has been persistent all day.

[Pelicane]

Looks like the GFS is coming into consensus with the other models in showing a disorganized wave within 5 days. Great news for the islands if it verifies.

[Hurricaneman]

Seems to want to wait until it’s in the Turks and Caicos before tropical cyclone development happens the last 2 runs of the GFS

[LarryWx]

Latest UKMET (0Z) still pretty weak and a little west of 12Z though still not far W of Bermuda:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 20.6N 64.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2025 108 21.3N 65.7W 1010 28
0000UTC 24.08.2025 120 22.9N 67.2W 1011 30
1200UTC 24.08.2025 132 24.5N 68.2W 1011 35
0000UTC 25.08.2025 144 26.9N 68.9W 1011 35
1200UTC 25.08.2025 156 29.9N 68.4W 1012 35
0000UTC 26.08.2025 168 33.3N 67.2W 1011 31

[Stratton23]

Despite the GFS recurving this run, Im growing increasingly skeptical that the global models are not seeing whats happening on the southern end of the wave, real time their has been a burst of new convection around the low level spin or around 8 N or so, and that convection is holding up pretty good even in the diurnal minimum cycle, this screams model whiff, im watching for a much farther south scenario to unfold if this area persists overnight

[txwxwatcher]

Despite the GFS recurving this run, Im growing increasingly skeptical that the global models are not seeing whats happening on the southern end of the wave, real time their has been a burst of new convection around the low level spin or around 8 N or so, and that convection is holding up pretty good even in the diurnal minimum cycle, this screams model whiff, im watching for a much farther south scenario to unfold if this area persists overnight

Or maybe, just maybe, the models are actually depicting what is likely to happen.

[Brent]

I'm gonna need a lot more evidence to believe that anything other than following Erin out to sea happens honestly

Most of the EPS members have been doing that anyway

[Pelicane]

Despite the GFS recurving this run, Im growing increasingly skeptical that the global models are not seeing whats happening on the southern end of the wave, real time their has been a burst of new convection around the low level spin or around 8 N or so, and that convection is holding up pretty good even in the diurnal minimum cycle, this screams model whiff, im watching for a much farther south scenario to unfold if this area persists overnight

Or maybe, just maybe, the models are actually depicting what is likely to happen.

It's never unwise to be cautious and skeptical, models have whiffed badly before. Dorian is a prime example of that, and that happened in a similar location and time of year. This is a tricky setup with a large, elongated wave but there's plenty of moisture available for it, just a question of how favorable the upper levels will be. The 12z run earlier today had a H making landfall in Florida, so we've already seen tons of variability with that today. It's best to watch it carefully until it's certain it'll head OTS or wither away.

[Stratton23]

txwxwatcher that certainly is possible too, but this particular area has been very persistent even into the diurnal cycle and their really hasnt been any convection anywhere else really , i just think its a situation in which models miss this

[Hurricaneman]

Seems as though it’s consolidating around 10n

[Pelicane]

The lower levels definitely favor the bottom half currently, but there is disorganization the higher you go.

As it gains latitude, the current model consensus if for the bottom vortex maximum to rotate and become more aligned and dominant with the upper half of the wave axis.

[Blown Away]

00z ECENS

00z GEFS

Little to no GEFS/ECENS support for the NHC 7 day orange area pointing WNW into SE Bahamas. All the ECENS recurve well E and many of the limited GEFS do too. NHC must be looking at some other factor? It wouldn’t shock me if NHC didn’t start backing off the 10/60% chance.