H Emily Recon Reports

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senorpepr
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#201 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:00 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 56
Latest Ob Location: 134 mi S of Cancun, Mexico

Ob #01: 03:49:00Z; 19.3°N 87.4°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 107 ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 23 mph; Max Wind: 24 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #02: 03:49:30Z; 19.2°N 87.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 108 ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 20 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #03: 03:50:00Z; 19.2°N 87.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 110 ft; Wind: WNW (294°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #04: 03:50:30Z; 19.2°N 87.5°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 111 ft; Wind: WNW (290°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 22 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #05: 03:51:00Z; 19.2°N 87.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 112 ft; Wind: WNW (286°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #06: 03:51:30Z; 19.2°N 87.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 113 ft; Wind: W (274°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 21 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #07: 03:52:00Z; 19.1°N 87.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 111 ft; Wind: W (275°) @ 18 mph; Max Wind: 18 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #08: 03:52:30Z; 19.1°N 87.5°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: 117 ft; Wind: W (271°) @ 20 mph; Max Wind: 20 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #09: 03:53:00Z; 19.1°N 87.5°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 116 ft; Wind: W (262°) @ 21 mph; Max Wind: 22 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #10: 03:53:30Z; 19.1°N 87.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 115 ft; Wind: WSW (257°) @ 22 mph; Max Wind: 22 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #11: 03:54:00Z; 19.1°N 87.4°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 115 ft; Wind: WSW (257°) @ 23 mph; Max Wind: 24 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #12: 03:54:30Z; 19.1°N 87.4°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 114 ft; Wind: WSW (254°) @ 24 mph; Max Wind: 25 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #13: 03:55:00Z; 19.1°N 87.4°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 115 ft; Wind: WSW (253°) @ 24 mph; Max Wind: 25 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #14: 03:55:30Z; 19.1°N 87.3°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 113 ft; Wind: WSW (250°) @ 25 mph; Max Wind: 26 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #15: 03:56:00Z; 19.1°N 87.3°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 114 ft; Wind: WSW (249°) @ 29 mph; Max Wind: 30 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #16: 03:56:30Z; 19.1°N 87.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 113 ft; Wind: WSW (251°) @ 31 mph; Max Wind: 31 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #17: 03:57:00Z; 19.1°N 87.2°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 112 ft; Wind: WSW (247°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 33 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #18: 03:57:30Z; 19.1°N 87.2°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 112 ft; Wind: WSW (245°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 32 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #19: 03:58:00Z; 19.1°N 87.2°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 110 ft; Wind: WSW (242°) @ 32 mph; Max Wind: 33 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #20: 03:58:30Z; 19.1°N 87.1°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 109 ft; Wind: WSW (240°) @ 35 mph; Max Wind: 35 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F

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Last edited by senorpepr on Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#202 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:00 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:just checked an H-Wind product

we are only seeing surface winds about 85% of the FL winds. So the winds may not be 145 but instead 140

Interesting, thanks for the info. Still a solid cat 4, very devastating to the area that gets the core of those winds.
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#203 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:01 pm

jkt21787 wrote:With the wind increase now, does anyone want to re-guess whether the pressure will rise or fall in the new VDM? I'm not sure what to expect honestly.


Knowing this crazy storm... higher.

Any other storm I would say lower.

Hopefully this will be the strangest storm of the year.
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#204 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:02 pm

Brent wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:With the wind increase now, does anyone want to re-guess whether the pressure will rise or fall in the new VDM? I'm not sure what to expect honestly.


Knowing this crazy storm... higher.

Any other storm I would say lower.

Hopefully this will be the strangest storm of the year.
I'm saying higher...since I've always been opposite of what the storm does.
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#205 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:06 pm

Ok I officially don't know where the center is.....
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#206 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:07 pm

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 29
Time: 03:29:50Z
Latitude: 20°N
Longitude: 86.6°W
Location: 75 mi SSE of Cancun, Mexico
Minimum height at 700 mb 2729 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 6 mi SW (220°)
Maximum flight level wind: SSE (162°) @ 162 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 13 mi ENE (65°)
Sea level pressure: 955 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 50°F at 10079 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 59°F at 9997 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 55°F
Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 14 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 2 nm
MAX FL WIND 141 KT NE QUAD 03:22:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C, 227 DEG / 5NM
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#207 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:07 pm

Wouldn't you know...no pressure change!
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#208 Postby mike18xx » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:09 pm

jkt21787 wrote:With the wind increase now, does anyone want to re-guess whether the pressure will rise or fall in the new VDM? I'm not sure what to expect honestly.
I will, uh, semi-confidently guess that it's falling like an anvil, and that Emily, now skimming bathwater off a reef all the way to shore, will intensify all the way to landfall.

Cozumel is going directly under the right-side eye-wall.
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#209 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:09 pm

jkt21787 wrote:Wouldn't you know...no pressure change!
figures...

*sigh*
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#210 Postby shawn67 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:09 pm

jkt21787 wrote:Wouldn't you know...no pressure change!


Man that is like betting $50 on red $50 on black and getting double zeros!!! :eek:

Shawn
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#211 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:10 pm

jkt21787 wrote:Wouldn't you know...no pressure change!


But they found the center!!!
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#212 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:11 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Wouldn't you know...no pressure change!


But they found the center!!!
LOL

They get the prize!
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#213 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:12 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Wouldn't you know...no pressure change!


But they found the center!!!


:roflmao:

Welcome back... I haven't seen you around here in a while.
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#214 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:13 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 57
Latest Ob Location: 167 mi SSE of Cancun, Mexico

Ob #01: 03:59:00Z; 19.1°N 87.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 109 ft; Wind: WSW (240°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 35 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #02: 03:59:30Z; 19.1°N 87.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 108 ft; Wind: WSW (243°) @ 33 mph; Max Wind: 35 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #03: 04:00:00Z; 19°N 87°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 108 ft; Wind: WSW (242°) @ 36 mph; Max Wind: 36 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #04: 04:00:30Z; 19°N 87°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 108 ft; Wind: WSW (240°) @ 37 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #05: 04:01:00Z; 19°N 87°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 108 ft; Wind: WSW (238°) @ 39 mph; Max Wind: 40 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #06: 04:01:30Z; 19°N 86.9°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 108 ft; Wind: WSW (239°) @ 38 mph; Max Wind: 39 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #07: 04:02:00Z; 19°N 86.9°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 108 ft; Wind: SW (234°) @ 37 mph; Max Wind: 38 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #08: 04:02:30Z; 19°N 86.9°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 107 ft; Wind: SW (231°) @ 40 mph; Max Wind: 41 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #09: 04:03:00Z; 19°N 86.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 107 ft; Wind: SW (232°) @ 40 mph; Max Wind: 41 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #10: 04:03:30Z; 19°N 86.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 108 ft; Wind: SW (230°) @ 43 mph; Max Wind: 44 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #11: 04:04:00Z; 19°N 86.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 108 ft; Wind: SW (230°) @ 45 mph; Max Wind: 45 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #12: 04:04:30Z; 19°N 86.7°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 109 ft; Wind: SW (227°) @ 44 mph; Max Wind: 45 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #13: 04:05:00Z; 19°N 86.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 109 ft; Wind: SW (228°) @ 45 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #14: 04:05:30Z; 19°N 86.7°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 110 ft; Wind: SW (225°) @ 43 mph; Max Wind: 43 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #15: 04:06:00Z; 19°N 86.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 110 ft; Wind: SW (223°) @ 43 mph; Max Wind: 44 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #16: 04:06:30Z; 19°N 86.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 112 ft; Wind: SW (222°) @ 44 mph; Max Wind: 44 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #17: 04:07:00Z; 19°N 86.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 112 ft; Wind: SW (218°) @ 45 mph; Max Wind: 45 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #18: 04:07:30Z; 19°N 86.6°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 113 ft; Wind: SW (216°) @ 43 mph; Max Wind: 45 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #19: 04:08:00Z; 19°N 86.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 112 ft; Wind: SW (219°) @ 45 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #20: 04:08:30Z; 19°N 86.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 114 ft; Wind: SW (219°) @ 48 mph; Max Wind: 50 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 40°F
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#215 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:13 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Wouldn't you know...no pressure change!


But they found the center!!!


:clap:

At least someone knows where it's at. I feel like I'm tracking a poorly organized blob.
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#216 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:14 pm

What about Karl last year?

Karl looked nothing like a Category 4 at peak intensity.
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#217 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:15 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 33
Time: 0354Z
Latitude: 19.1°N
Longitude: 87.4°W
Location: 123 mi NNE of Belize City, Belize
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Unknown
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: WSW (250°) @ 25 mph
Temperature: 48°F
Dewpoint: 45°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 10200 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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#218 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:16 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:What about Karl last year?

Karl looked nothing like a Category 4 at peak intensity.


I don't even remember Karl... too busy with Ivan(or was it Jeanne?)
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#219 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:19 pm

Brent wrote:
HurricaneBill wrote:What about Karl last year?

Karl looked nothing like a Category 4 at peak intensity.


I don't even remember Karl... too busy with Ivan(or was it Jeanne?)


Image

In this picture it sure looks good, by the way, look at poor lLisa to the SE of Karl.
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#220 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:19 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 58
Latest Ob Location: 233 mi SE of Cancun, Mexico

Ob #01: 04:09:00Z; 19°N 86.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 115 ft; Wind: SW (217°) @ 50 mph; Max Wind: 51 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #02: 04:09:30Z; 19°N 86.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 117 ft; Wind: SW (216°) @ 48 mph; Max Wind: 50 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #03: 04:10:00Z; 19°N 86.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 117 ft; Wind: SW (216°) @ 48 mph; Max Wind: 48 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #04: 04:10:30Z; 19°N 86.4°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 119 ft; Wind: SSW (212°) @ 47 mph; Max Wind: 48 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #05: 04:11:00Z; 19°N 86.3°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 120 ft; Wind: SSW (211°) @ 48 mph; Max Wind: 48 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #06: 04:11:30Z; 19°N 86.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 121 ft; Wind: SSW (209°) @ 48 mph; Max Wind: 48 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #07: 04:12:00Z; 19°N 86.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 123 ft; Wind: SSW (207°) @ 48 mph; Max Wind: 48 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #08: 04:12:30Z; 19°N 86.2°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: SSW (210°) @ 46 mph; Max Wind: 47 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #09: 04:13:00Z; 18.9°N 86.2°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: SSW (207°) @ 45 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #10: 04:13:30Z; 18.9°N 86.2°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: SSW (207°) @ 45 mph; Max Wind: 45 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #11: 04:14:00Z; 18.9°N 86.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: SSW (203°) @ 46 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #12: 04:14:30Z; 18.9°N 86.1°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: SSW (198°) @ 46 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #13: 04:15:00Z; 18.9°N 86.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: SSW (196°) @ 46 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #14: 04:15:30Z; 18.9°N 86.1°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: S (191°) @ 46 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #15: 04:16:00Z; 18.9°N 86°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: S (188°) @ 45 mph; Max Wind: 45 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #16: 04:16:30Z; 18.9°N 86°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: S (190°) @ 45 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #17: 04:17:00Z; 18.9°N 86°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: S (187°) @ 47 mph; Max Wind: 47 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #18: 04:17:30Z; 18.9°N 85.9°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: S (190°) @ 46 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #19: 04:18:00Z; 18.9°N 85.9°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 132 ft; Wind: S (191°) @ 47 mph; Max Wind: 47 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #20: 04:18:30Z; 18.9°N 85.9°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 132 ft; Wind: SSW (193°) @ 46 mph; Max Wind: 46 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 39°F
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