TD#9

stormernie · #201 Postby **stormernie** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:08 am

Looking at the first group of visible pictures we have potentially two (2) centers. One is starting to move off to the northwest and dying out while the other is further south under the deep convention. The latter is also weak since it may now be developing. The question becomes if this one will now take over if not than the system TD9 will basically dissapate because of the dry air and cooler SST's.

#202 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:27 am

I see no evidence of 2 centers. All low clouds along 15N are clearly moving eastward, south of the center. On this McIdas image you can see that the center is north of 16N as of 8:15am CDT:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene7.gif

#203 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:28 am

i think what he was saying is that he sees that but it is dying...the MLC is near the convection moving WEST...

#204 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:29 am

If trend of disorganization continues it may be a open wave very soon.

#205 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:31 am

yeah, we might...i would look for a new LLC to try and form under that big ball of storms

Thunder44 · #206 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:31 am

deltadog03 wrote:i think what he was saying is that he sees that but it is dying...the MLC is near the convection moving WEST...

I don't see any spin down there to suggest there's even an MLC.

#207 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:34 am

i havn't looked yet, i was just responding to what I thought he had said...i will look now though

Website · #208 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:40 am

It looks very sick.

gkrangers · #209 Postby **gkrangers** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:42 am

So wasn't this supposed to be a monster hurricane that destroyed half the world or something? :lol:

#210 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:43 am

Here's a zoomed-in McIdas image. The center is getting weaker and is up near 16.8N/37W. It may well be heading to the NW already, as the 06Z GFS was suggesting. As far north as it is now, its "fish chances" are improving dramatically. (that is, if it survives)

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene8.gif

#211 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:44 am

well whats not to say it dosn't develop a NEW LLC underneath those storms?

#212 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:45 am

Wow....it's waaay up there! It's also worse than what I thought.

#213 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:45 am

deltadog03 wrote:well whats not to say it dosn't develop a NEW LLC underneath those storms?

who knows. its just that there is no evidence of that happening yet and until that scenario begins to materialize there is no reason to believe one will form. It still could though.

<RICKY>

#214 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:47 am

yeah, true..but, we have seen that a number of times this year....so, at least I, am counting on that happening...the LLC is really weakening isn't??

#215 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:47 am

deltadog03 wrote:well whats not to say it dosn't develop a NEW LLC underneath those storms?

While not impossible, it has a very broad circulation that would totally have to dissipate first. Note all the banding around the present center. All those low clouds hundreds of miles across are circulating around that center. That broad swirl would have to dissipate first (i.e., TD 9 becomes a wave).

#216 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:48 am

deltadog03 wrote:yeah, true..but, we have seen that a number of times this year....so, at least I, am counting on that happening...the LLC is really weakening isn't??

just take a look at the satellite pic and see it if you dont wanna believe it. Use the NHC Floater 2 for quick reference.

<RICKY>

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

#217 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:48 am

yeah, very good point, looks like it might very quickly...

Frank2 · #218 Postby **Frank2** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:55 am

Don't get mad, folks, but, please try not to post those very large photos - they make for long download times.

Yes, TD9 is now just a swirl void of convection, moving northwest - apparently the SST's are too low in the area, and that, in combination with the trough to the northwest, seems to mean that TD9 will not be Irene today - or perhaps ever.

Frank

#219 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 9:01 am

that is if a new LLC dosn't form in or around those thunderstorms to the s of it..

Thunder44 · #220 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 9:05 am

deltadog03 wrote:that is if a new LLC dosn't form in or around those thunderstorms to the s of it..

I honestly don't think it will happen. Like wxman57 mentioned, the LLC to the north is too broad. I think it's this center or nothing. This system looks like is weakening and getting very disorganized.

TD#9

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