TD 10...Back Again

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think gk is talking about the fact that LLC's don't show up on water vapor loops. The LLC is close to the water temp, so visible is the best tool.

speaking of that, http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html do the zoomed anim. and it looks to me as if we clearly had a reformation more W and a lttle SW of the earlier LLC. It also look like the convection is right over ( notice the convection turning in sync) I don't expect it to take off now due to the shear.

[sma10]

I think it still looks pretty lousy today.

Also, I can't seem to find a single model that likes this system. For some reason, the globals don't give this system much of a chance.

[clfenwi]

2:05 PM TWD remarks

A 1011 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 16N52W MOVING WNW 5-10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER THE S SIDE OF A BURST OF TSTMS...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BEEN CHANGING ALL MORNING AND HAS NOT
BEEN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT
300 NM E OF A LARGE UPPER LOW AND IS CONSEQUENTLY UNDER 10-20 KT
OF SWLY SHEAR...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
REFORM WITHIN 24-36 HRS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

[Weatherboy1]

In the most recent satellite shot (17:15), it appears the LLC may finally have flamed out on 10, at least to me. I think it was under that convection to the east, then tried to relocate under the new batch of convection to the west, then finally just went "poof." There is still a low pressure area (as someone referenced the west wind at that mid-Atlantic buoy), just not a tight LLC that I can discern anymore.

-Mike

[Sanibel]

The system wouldn't have a sheared flare if it wasn't maintaining some kind of energy.

The hostile environment in the Caribbean is probably July conditions arriving late after an active early season...

[WeatherEmperor]

2:05 PM TWD remarks

A 1011 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 16N52W MOVING WNW 5-10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER THE S SIDE OF A BURST OF TSTMS...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BEEN CHANGING ALL MORNING AND HAS NOT
BEEN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT
300 NM E OF A LARGE UPPER LOW AND IS CONSEQUENTLY UNDER 10-20 KT
OF SWLY SHEAR...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
REFORM WITHIN 24-36 HRS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

well at least they arent completely writing it off just yet.

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

2:05 PM TWD remarks

A 1011 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 16N52W MOVING WNW 5-10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER THE S SIDE OF A BURST OF TSTMS...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BEEN CHANGING ALL MORNING AND HAS NOT
BEEN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT
300 NM E OF A LARGE UPPER LOW AND IS CONSEQUENTLY UNDER 10-20 KT
OF SWLY SHEAR...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
REFORM WITHIN 24-36 HRS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

Uhhh ... 16N52W?

Maybe I'm just goofy, but it seems a fair bit further west than that.

[mascpa]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TD 10 will regenerate in the next 48 hours or so and then strengthen to Tropical Storm Jose between 72 - 96 hours. At that point, conditions have become more favorable for development and Jose will continue to strengthen at a moderate pace until reaching hurricane strength within 7 days. Track will begin W - WNW and as strengthening occurs turn a little more poleward to WNW / NW for several days. At that time the ridge will be building back in and becoming much stronger forcing Jose back to a more westerly course. At that point, the crystal ball becomes cloudy. But I do feel fairly certain of a landfall somewhere along the east coast from Virginia southward.

[clfenwi]

2:05 PM TWD remarks

A 1011 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 16N52W MOVING WNW 5-10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER THE S SIDE OF A BURST OF TSTMS...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BEEN CHANGING ALL MORNING AND HAS NOT
BEEN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT
300 NM E OF A LARGE UPPER LOW AND IS CONSEQUENTLY UNDER 10-20 KT
OF SWLY SHEAR...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
REFORM WITHIN 24-36 HRS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

Uhhh ... 16N52W?

Maybe I'm just goofy, but it seems a fair bit further west than that.

Well, this was the previous description...

A 1012 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 15N51W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.

That is reasonable continuity... I think at 1130-1200Z most of us would have put it further west than 51° ... besides, it does say 'near', it isn't claiming rigorous precision.

[clfenwi]

SSD's estimate

16/1745 UTC 16.2N 53.3W T1.0/1.0 10 -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

SSD's estimate

16/1745 UTC 16.2N 53.3W T1.0/1.0 10 -- Atlantic Ocean

That longitud position is more ahead from the 2 PM discussion which was at 52w.

[Hurricaneman]

Is it possible the center relocated

[wxman57]

As of 1:15pm CDT, my McIdas imagery shows all convection has died out. What remains of the low-level swirl is expanding outward on all sides. I estimate the center at 16.2N/53.2W, but there's hardly anything there now.

Just noticed the position estimate above at 16.2N/53.3W. Looks good to me.

[jabber]

As of 1:15pm CDT, my McIdas imagery shows all convection has died out. What remains of the low-level swirl is expanding outward on all sides. I estimate the center at 16.2N/53.2W, but there's hardly anything there now.

Just noticed the position estimate above at 16.2N/53.3W. Looks good to me.

Me thinks its dead......

[wxman57]

Not dead, but not getting better organized. Here's a new image. I circled the apparent center and indicated cloud element motions with yellow arrows. Note the lack of inflow.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose14.gif">

[HURAKAN]

EX-TD 10 is not dead, just struggling!

[SouthFloridawx]

what is that 50 west and 22 north. That is what Irene used to look like last monday now everytime the sat loop updates every 15 minutes someone makes a determination. We are just going to have to wait on this one for another 24 - 36 hours like the nhc says. Conditions are going to be more favorable then of course it doesn't look good right not conditions are not favorable.

[SouthFloridawx]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD REGENERATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[elysium]

TD 10 is in fine shape given the conditions. More importantly, who here has any information on day 7? The low in the SW conus doesn't appear very robust this hour as it tracks NE, while the subtropical ridge appears to be making a resilient comeback. How this scenario begins to unfold will be crucial in trying to make some reasonable approximation on directional heading.

Does anyone here see the strong possibility for rapid intensification on days 7 and 8? Might the positively tilted trough that develops and weakens the western portion of the subtropical ridge on day 6 not be as strong as is currently being depicted by many of the models?

[frederic79]

About a week ago, Dixiebreeze posted a summery of Hurricane Andrew in regards to Irene. Here is the bulk of that post:

“Between the days of August 17th and 20th, the tropical storm passed south of the center of a high pressure over the eastern Atlantic. Steering currents carried Andrew closer to a strong upper-level low pressure system centered about 500 nautical miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda. The currents also carried Andrew to a trough that extended southward from Andrew for a few hundred miles. These currents slowly but surely changed and Andrew decreased in speed on a course which became northwesterly. With the luck of this change in heading, Andrew spared the Lesser Antilles. The change in track also brought the tropical storm directly into a place of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and quite high surface pressures to its north. At this time, the maximum wind speed of Andrew varied little. However, right after this time a rather remarkable evolution occurred. Satellite shots show that Andrew produced deep convection only sporadically for several days, mainly in several bursts of about 12 hours duration. Finally, the very deep convection did not persist very long at all. Instead, Andrew had the low-level circulation taken away from him by the strong southwesterly flow in upper levels of the atmosphere. Reconnaissance aircrafts took a flight into Andrew and on the 20th day of August, found that the cyclone had dissipated enough to be a low-level circulation center. His central pressure rose considerably. However, the flight data indicated that Andrew kept a very vigorous circulation aloft. Andrew was estimated on 20th of August to have been a tropical storm with 40 kt maximum sustained winds and an had a very astonishingly high central pressure of 1015 millibars. Tropical Storm Andrew headed towards the northwest for five days with little strengthening.

Very significant changes in environment near Andrew began on the 20 day of August. Satellite pictures in the water vapor channel indicated that the low aloft to the east-southeast of Bermuda weakened and split. The brunt of the low pressure opened into a trough which retreated towards the north direction. That evolution minimized the wind shear over Hurricane Andrew. The rest of the low pressure dropped southward to a position just southwest of Hurricane Andrew. This is where his circulation deepened the upper-level outflow over the tropical cyclone. At the same time, a strong dome of high pressure formed near the southeast coast of the United States. A ridge was built eastward from the high into the southwestern Atlantic with its axis lying just a little bit to the north of Andrew. The steering flow over the tropical storm became much more easterly. Andrew turned toward the west and accelerated to about 16 kt. These changes quickly intensified Hurricane Andrew.”

That said, I noticed something else interesting about Andrew. On August 19, 1992 Andrew was still far from formidable at 1001 mb and was plotted in the same position as TD10 is now:

Location of Andrew - 0 GMT - 8/19/92 16.3N 53.5W 50 1001 Tropical Storm
Current location of TD-10 - 8/16/05 16.2N 53.3W T1.0/1.0 10 -- Atlantic Ocean

Andrew DID NOT become a hurricane until August 22, a full three days later when shear abated.

I’m not at all suggesting another Andrew, just pointing out what I consider remarkable similarities in the date, location and development up to this point, of each system.