Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[curtadams]

GFDL slightly left, UKMET slightly right. Both aligning with NHC thoughts from 11am

Oh, that's too funny! The globals switch from FL to Yucatan - and the BAMs switch from Yucatan to FL! Leaving the NHC placidly in the middle.

[Brent]

I like the A98E.

[sponger]

Bottom line: It's definitely time to pay attention to Wilma in peninsular FL.


No worries, shes got every ones attention!

[cycloneye]

17/1745 UTC 15.7N 79.6W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD dvorak sat estimates a 3.5 T number meaning a much stronger storm than the 50 mph of the 2 pm advisorie.

[sponger]

Bottom line: It's definitely time to pay attention to Wilma in peninsular FL.



No worries, shes got every ones attention!

[Stormcenter]

The 2PM advisory says it is drifting southward...

It does look to be so on visible.

She is moving due south and not changing course just yet. She is acting like Katrina did when she kept on moving WSW even though she was supposed to be moving WNW. By the way , I am NOT trying to imply Wilma is going follow the same path or have the same strength as Katrina.

[skysummit]

The 2PM advisory says it is drifting southward...

It does look to be so on visible.

She is moving due south and not changing course just yet. She is acting like Katrina did when she kept on moving WSW even though she was supposed to be moving WNW. By the way , I am NOT trying to imply Wilma is going follow the same path or have the same strength as Katrina.

LOL...these women boy...I tell you. Maybe she's looking for the closest mall? J/J

[Brent]

17/1745 UTC 15.7N 79.6W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD dvorak sat estimates a 3.5 T number meaning a much stronger storm than the 50 mph of the 2 pm advisorie.

It's also southeast of the 2pm advisory position.

[Weatherboy1]

FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYS SHOULD STEER WILMA EWD DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE PD AS IT ROUNDS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE INCREASINGLY
DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVR THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE ONLY
CHANGE MADE TO CONTINUITY WAS PER THE 16Z COORDINATION CALL...AND
IT WAS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THE FCST IS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z NCEP
ENSMEAN/12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...WHICH IS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
SLOW ECMWF AND THE RAPID 06Z GFS/00Z CAN. ENOUGH OF A TROUGH
EXISTS IN THE OH VLY/EAST FROM DAY 5 /SAT AM/ ONWARD TO ALLOW
WILMA RECURVE ALONG A CLIMO TRACK ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. MOST OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LANDFALL BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND
TAMPA...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR TIMING THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH VARIOUS MODELS ONE DAY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE PROGGED
TIME OF LANDFALL. THE LONGER THE SYS TAKES TO ENTER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE FARTHER SOUTH THE POINT OF LANDFALL COULD BE IN THE
FL PENINSULA.

This is from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's final dicussion, just released. They are calling for a Wilma landfall in west Centeral/Southern FL in about a week due to the diving front.

[x-y-no]

The wobble watch starts.

Join me at the next meeting of Wobble Watchers Anonymous ...

Step 1 is: "We admitted we were powerless over wobbles - that hurricanes are unmanageable.

[Canelaw99]

THE LONGER THE SYS TAKES TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FARTHER SOUTH THE POINT OF LANDFALL COULD BE IN THE FL PENINSULA.

This is from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's final dicussion, just released. They are calling for a Wilma landfall in west Centeral/Southern FL in about a week due to the diving front.

Peachy

LOL Sky - she could be. Bad thing is we have really good shopping here in Miami

[SkeetoBite]

BAMMS out... more consensus



Hi.... uh, my name's Skeetobite... and... uh, I'm a Wobble Watcher...

[Recurve]

<Totally amateur observations, not a forecast...for entertainment purposes only...>

Hmm, look at the vapor loops. There seems to be no way Wilma makes it even to the Yucatan channel unless the dry air and ridge and SW steering flow disappear. Looks like she has as much chance of recurving into eastern Cuba and out over the Bahamas -- or being pushed into the Pacific -- as getting into the Gulf as a Cat 2.
Dry air really inhibiting the whole north side. No outflow there, convection all pushed to the south.
Even seen a developing TS split into two? That convection east of Jamaica wants to go its own way and fly off to the English Channel for a spot of tea.

[JPmia]

The Euro Model is being VERY consistent with a recurve and FL hit...looks like anywhere from Tampa south based on latest GFS, GFDL, and EURO. Any others that are similar?

[cjrciadt]

BAMMS out... more consensus



Hi.... uh, my name's Skeetobite... and... uh, I'm a Wobble Watcher...

The cone for the 5pm advisory will tighten up greatly, many people will start watching this.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM WILMA (AL242005) ON 20051017 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051017 1800 051018 0600 051018 1800 051019 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.1N 79.9W 16.2N 80.9W 16.9N 82.0W 17.6N 83.2W
BAMM 16.1N 79.9W 16.6N 80.9W 17.3N 82.2W 18.0N 83.4W
A98E 16.1N 79.9W 15.9N 80.2W 16.1N 80.9W 16.6N 81.7W
LBAR 16.1N 79.9W 16.2N 80.8W 17.5N 82.2W 19.0N 83.6W
SHIP 45KTS 54KTS 64KTS 74KTS
DSHP 45KTS 54KTS 64KTS 74KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051019 1800 051020 1800 051021 1800 051022 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 84.2W 20.0N 85.3W 22.5N 85.1W 26.0N 82.8W
BAMM 18.6N 84.4W 20.1N 85.7W 22.0N 85.9W 24.1N 84.0W
A98E 16.9N 82.2W 17.7N 83.7W 18.9N 85.2W 20.8N 86.0W
LBAR 20.5N 84.6W 24.4N 84.2W 29.3N 80.2W 33.3N 69.3W
SHIP 82KTS 95KTS 99KTS 90KTS
DSHP 82KTS 95KTS 99KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 79.9W DIRCUR = 190DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 79.6W DIRM12 = 189DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 79.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 0NM



18:00z Models.

[Brent]

SHIPS now calls for a major hurricane.

[markymark8]

<Totally amateur observations, not a forecast...for entertainment purposes only...>

Hmm, look at the vapor loops. There seems to be no way Wilma makes it even to the Yucatan channel unless the dry air and ridge and SW steering flow disappear. Looks like she has as much chance of recurving into eastern Cuba and out over the Bahamas -- or being pushed into the Pacific -- as getting into the Gulf as a Cat 2.
Dry air really inhibiting the whole north side. No outflow there, convection all pushed to the south.
Even seen a developing TS split into two? That convection east of Jamaica wants to go its own way and fly off to the English Channel for a spot of tea.

Yepp!!! She doesnt look too hot right now. She is going to have to spit out alot of dry air and alot of reorganizing if she wants to be a cane. This time of year it is hard for a Hurricane to form. Conditions have to be especially perfect in the atmosphere this time of year. It is possible that Wilma will be all hype before its over with. Im not saying its going to happen but I wouldnt be surprised one bit if it did.

[DESTRUCTION5]

<Totally amateur observations, not a forecast...for entertainment purposes only...>

Hmm, look at the vapor loops. There seems to be no way Wilma makes it even to the Yucatan channel unless the dry air and ridge and SW steering flow disappear. Looks like she has as much chance of recurving into eastern Cuba and out over the Bahamas -- or being pushed into the Pacific -- as getting into the Gulf as a Cat 2.
Dry air really inhibiting the whole north side. No outflow there, convection all pushed to the south.
Even seen a developing TS split into two? That convection east of Jamaica wants to go its own way and fly off to the English Channel for a spot of tea.

Yepp!!! She doesnt look too hot right now. She is going to have to spit out alot of dry air and alot of reorganizing if she wants to be a cane. This time of year it is hard for a Hurricane to form. Conditions have to be especially perfect in the atmosphere this time of year. It is possible that Wilma will be all hype before its over with. Im not saying its going to happen but I wouldnt be surprised one bit if it did.

Marky...Your Crazy...Its the Conditions around the Storm not the time of the year...

[Vortex]

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KMFL 171835
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 60S ONCE AGAIN OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTH INTERIOR. INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MEAN A RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES EAST COAST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE
UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY MOISTEN
TUESDAY AS TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVES WEST SPREADING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS CLOSER TO GFS MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEK. BIGGER PROBLEMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS NOW COMING TOGETHER TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS WILMA
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HAVE NUDGED UP WINDS/SEAS JUST A BIT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WEEKEND FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
WITH NHC GUIDANCE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.