Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

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gatorcane
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#201 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:17 pm

I think it is still farther east or if it is not won't last long unless it is near all of the convection.
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#202 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:18 pm

NRL had it at 18/85 all afternoon...so it's actually west of where it was located by NRL
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#203 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:18 pm

Bgator wrote:The TWD just came out and they say the center is near 18/85.5, i do not personally agree, but for now thats there best guess!(the nHC)


I don't disagree...that's where it is now...but I don't think that is where it will end up...I think the setup is such that this is one of those that reforms to the east...although given the current wind at 42056...I think 85.5 is a little bit too far west. That would mean the winds are blowing directly into the low...and thats not too logical.
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#204 Postby jaxfladude » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:18 pm

boca wrote:Drinks or on me.


:eek: I knew all these threads on this still to be a T.D./T.S. :eek: /Hurricane would sooner or later cause one to get a little lose with their fingers.........
Last edited by jaxfladude on Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#205 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:18 pm

The overnight hours are good for developing cyclones. Convection should increase by tomorrow morning.
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#206 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:18 pm

So, will the new models initialize from 18/85.5?
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#207 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:18 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just my take, My confidence on it is a little higher then last night

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#208 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:19 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just my take, My confidence on it is a little higher then last night

Image


leave P'cola out of this 8-)
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#209 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:21 pm

My forcast for this is TD by 11pm tonight and TS by recon tomorrow!
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#210 Postby Frank P » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:22 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Bgator wrote:The TWD just came out and they say the center is near 18/85.5, i do not personally agree, but for now thats there best guess!(the nHC)


I don't disagree...that's where it is now...but I don't think that is where it will end up...I think the setup is such that this is one of those that reforms to the east...although given the current wind at 42056...I think 85.5 is a little bit too far west. That would mean the winds are blowing directly into the low...and thats not too logical.


from looking at the vis loops I don't see how it could be as far as 85.5 w.... best I could tell was around 84.8, maybe 85.0 give or take a couple of tenths... but perhaps their data was more up to date that what I was looking at...
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#211 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:24 pm

I have seen approximately 18/85 all day for the "main" center of circulation... with the convection somewhat on the increase in this area, I do believe this is the one to watch.
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#212 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:24 pm

09/2345 UTC 18.4N 83.5W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean
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#213 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:24 pm

Anyone see Larry Cosgrove's prediction this evening? He has it going pointing directly at Pensacola...If the mods will let me know if I can post a link to another BB, I will do so...otherwise, PM me for the link.
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#214 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:09/2345 UTC 18.4N 83.5W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


1.5 Spells TD at 11
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#215 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:26 pm

rockyman wrote:Anyone see Larry Cosgrove's prediction this evening? He has it going pointing directly at Pensacola...If the mods will let me know if I can post a link to another BB, I will do so...otherwise, PM me for the link.


come on now, I was hoping for a good nights sleep tonight :grr:
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#216 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:26 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:09/2345 UTC 18.4N 83.5W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


1.5 Spells TD at 11


Center located farther east also.
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#217 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:27 pm

boca_chris wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:09/2345 UTC 18.4N 83.5W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


1.5 Spells TD at 11


Center located farther east also.


Way Way Further East
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#218 Postby Bgator » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:28 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:09/2345 UTC 18.4N 83.5W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


1.5 Spells TD at 11


Center located farther east also.


Way Way Further East


Ok, so i think it is in between 85 and 84, thast my best guess, and 1.5 should mean TD soon!
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#219 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:28 pm

Keep in mind that the T-numbers are based on satellite presentation...not necessarily surface observations.
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#220 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jun 09, 2006 7:28 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Tell me that is not a TD! That looks like a TD.
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