Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

[GeneratorPower]

Thought y'all might like to see a couple of high-res McIDAS images of what I think should soon be 97L:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl1.gif

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl2.gif

Seems to have a nice mid to lower level circulation. Can't tell if it has an actual LLC. I do notice that the GFS is forecasting it to move into a region of 40-50kt easterly winds between 10,000-20,000 ft tomorrow. That might knock it down considerably - assuming the GFS has a clue about the winds in the eastern Atlantic.

If it does develop in the next 2-3 days, then it may recurve more quickly and possibly be a fish storm. The slower it is in developing, the farther west the possible threat. With the MJO phase producing lots of east Pac activity this week, it's poised to begin impacting the western Atlantic Basin next week. The action will likely begin in the near future.

I told you that when I saw anything that I actually thought had a chance of developing that I'd mention it.

Thank you for doing that...very much appreciated!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is looking very good right now...Hopefully it will develop into Beryl!

[AJC3]

Will the NHC put the floater on it soon?

I think it's still too far east for images every 30 mins.

That's right. The only reason I could get a full shot of it last hour was that it was 18Z. Once it moves west of about 31W it'll be in the regular northern hemisphere view.

It's a shame that the euro folks aren't a little more giving with their data. If you have a JAAWIN account , you can view MET-8 data every 15 minutes.

[HurricaneHunter914]

And if it does, this will like likely be a fish storm.

[P.K.]

Will the NHC put the floater on it soon?

I think it's still too far east for images every 30 mins.

Meteosat-8 and Meteosat-9 take images every 15 minutes so that can't be correct. That said I don't know if the NRL can display them publically, when they showed Meteosat-7 ones they did appear degraded.

[mvtrucking]

Well i guess nobody looked at the loop i posted or what i was saying ..was just trying to get some feed back on the site

Thanks for the great site Aric Dunn. Much appreciated.



MV

[Aric Dunn]

This is very 3 hours rather than six hours the directions are below for those of you who dont know the site... Scroll down its in a subsequant post i realized i did not post it in my original



Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 3:13 pm Post subject:

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I agree very much with you WX .. it has potential only if it stays weaker for the next day or so it it ot going now a more northerly turn may happen and with the latest EUMETSAT loops it be moving WNW already here is the LINK And for this of you that have never Seen this site.. here are the instructions The 0° Operational Service is the image you should click for it is the eastern Atlantic and you will notice the full disc is divided up ... if you start in the top left box and go down one that is the sector you want .... click on that and a window will pop up.. and you will see some controls... In the top right of that window it says display click color i find it to be clearer.... than click 9 or 12 images and hit play ... it is the only loop that is not 6 hours apart that i have ever found of the eastern atlantic.. and you can also get a good loop over africa using the other sectors.... oh yeah you can click visible now it works and does not skip as much becuase you get more images that anywhere else. but i suggest the IR 2 ...

Let me know what you think of it... i think it helps out lot... since other loops suck again use IR 2

Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 3:21 pm Post subject:

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WOW just read what i wrote and i realized i type too fast .. i made so many mistakes

i meant to say on the first line if it does not stay weak and organizes a little more than it will turn north and it may already be doing so with the latest loops... let me know what you all think of the WNW motion and the Site

Now here is the LINK http://www.eumetsat.int/idcplg?IdcServi ... d=444&l=en

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is coming together nicely at this moment...With nice outflow out of all quads and convection developing over the center. I expect the nhc to talk about this at 5:30pm est...

This has come together fast...I will look at more data...

[Epsilon_Fan]

very interesting... I'm having fish tonight!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The shear maps show 5 to 10 knots with a Anticyclone over this...Come one Beryl!!!

[skysummit]

No talks....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS AREA AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[ThunderMate]

They are purposely ignoring it!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah they are...Its going to have to develop deep convection and a LLC before they start talking about it.

[gatorcane]

it has a very small chance given where it is and where we are in hurricane season - so they don't care about it.

[Derek Ortt]

Beven did not mention it because he does not believe it will develop, apparantly, which is fine

[skysummit]

it has a very small chance given where it is and where we are in hurricane season - so they don't care about it.

I highly doubt that.

[Aric Dunn]

Actually ,, they are probably not going to say anything in the outlooks until it has time to move away from the islands and since it takes a little time to transistion from a T'storm complex/tropical wave off africa to a real tropical disturbance .. they know this and are not going to jump the gun on it .. but look for them saying something a little more about it in the 805 disscusion... NHC is going to do things in increments and will continue to do so.... even when something forms they are going to start at TD and when it looks like its a strong TS they will have it 40mph and when it starts looking like a hurricane they will have it a 60mph ...... and they will do until A. they get a plane to investigate it
B. it forms a eye
c there is some other sort of data I.e Ship reprorts
So dont worry .. just remember that they are the experts and have to make sure before they start issuing anything it.

and normally they only do the incramental thing when they cant get a plane to investigate... like systems east of 55w

[Aric Dunn]

and so far .... the current trend with this system has only since this morning .. and the NHC is going to wait and see of the trend continues

[GeneratorPower]

Actually ,, they are probably not going to say anything in the outlooks until it has time to move away from the islands and since it takes a little time to transistion from a T'storm complex/tropical wave off africa to a real tropical disturbance .. they know this and are not going to jump the gun on it .. but look for them saying something a little more about it in the 805 disscusion... NHC is going to do things in increments and will continue to do so.... even when something forms they are going to start at TD and when it looks like its a strong TS they will have it 40mph and when it starts looking like a hurricane they will have it a 60mph ...... and they will do until A. they get a plane to investigate it
B. it forms a eye
c there is some other sort of data I.e Ship reprorts
So dont worry .. just remember that they are the experts and have to make sure before they start issuing anything it.

and normally they only do the incramental thing when they cant get a plane to investigate... like systems east of 55w

I think you're mostly right on this. They take it one step at a time and they never jump the gun. The best "nuggets" of information come from discussions on particular cyclones, where they often use the words "this may be a little conservative" or "this may be a little generous" in reference to windspeeds, etc.

I love the NHC. They rock!

[HurricaneHunter914]

IMO they could at least say something so people are awareof it. Maybe they can say something along the lines of,"There is a well organized disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic, currently there is no LLC associated with it, but it does have a chance to develop in to TC over the next couple of days"

Edit:Right now it looks like convection has strengthened the center of this wave.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg