96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Jam151]

Lonely in the reality circle because everyone is in the crazy house tonight . I will admit that this system does look better and it has even shocked me with its improvement, but the enviroment ahead of the system is not right for development. I guess everyone can watch it if they want but i'm just so lonely in my reality circle, come on everyone break out of the crazy house and join in the reality circle, PLEASE!!!!

I'm here stating facts...In yes the convection has developed around a surface low pressure area. In yes there is deeping shear at around 50 to 60 west because of a weakness between the two highs. Which should weaken over the next few days...While the ridge to the north rebuilds forcing the system to turn westward into the caribbean.

Also the Gfs holds the Anticyclone over the distrabance...So maybe it could be strong enough to push through. Cmc knocks it down...I will have another update when the 00z models come in. So stating its possible for some development is crazy? I don't think so the gfs been trying to close something off for the last few days. Yes the caribbean is very unfaverbale...Also the quickscats do not show a LLC heck they don't even show a strong tropical wave at the surface. But its a wait an see...

Thanks for proving my point. The gfs shows what a 1016mb low, doesn't seem like development to me. Like I said it looks good now, but enviroment ahead is not good for development. As far as for crazy peeps, those are the ones talking like this is a hurricane already. Lets step back a second and look at everything without the "I want a hurricane right now" glasses on. All this is my opinion, sorry if i affended anyone with my post I just think some are going to far. We will get our storm eventually, just be patient.

[gatorcane]

Lonely in the reality circle because everyone is in the crazy house tonight . I will admit that this system does look better and it has even shocked me with its improvement, but the enviroment ahead of the system is not right for development. I guess everyone can watch it if they want but i'm just so lonely in my reality circle, come on everyone break out of the crazy house and join in the reality circle, PLEASE!!!!

I'm here stating facts...In yes the convection has developed around a surface low pressure area. In yes there is deeping shear at around 50 to 60 west because of a weakness between the two highs. Which should weaken over the next few days...While the ridge to the north rebuilds forcing the system to turn westward into the caribbean.

Also the Gfs holds the Anticyclone over the distrabance...So maybe it could be strong enough to push through. Cmc knocks it down...I will have another update when the 00z models come in. So stating its possible for some development is crazy? I don't think so the gfs been trying to close something off for the last few days. Yes the caribbean is very unfaverbale...Also the quickscats do not show a LLC heck they don't even show a strong tropical wave at the surface. But its a wait an see...

Thanks for proving my point. The gfs shows what a 1016mb low, doesn't seem like development to me. Like I said it looks good now, but enviroment ahead is not good for development. As far as for crazy peeps, those are the ones talking like this is a hurricane already. Lets step back a second and look at everything without the "I want a hurricane right now" glasses on. All this is my opinion, sorry if i affended anyone with my post I just think some are going to far. We will get our storm eventually, just be patient.

93L which was in the same region about 2 weeks ago and now even stronger 96L is NOT a trend we want folks because certainly each wave is getting stronger and better organized and it is only July. Just wait until August - I think these invests are a sign of a pretty active CV season that will get cranking once this TUTT moves out.

[NDG]

Hello, I'm new here to this forum.

I've been reading some crazy posts here for the past 2 weeks or so, so I though to join in.

Please people, understand, just because there is strong wind shear in the eastern Caribbean right now, it doesn't mean that is not going to go away, you have to look at the forecasts from the global models on upper level winds.

This system is forecasted by the GFS, which usually has a good handle on upper level winds, to have good to fair upper level winds until it gets just past PR if it stays south of 15N lat, some of you were arguing that the dry & stable air to its north was going to kill this system today, but all you have to see is the water vapor images winning the battle against the dry air at this time.

This system has a good 96 hrs of medium favorable conditions to develop, more than enough to develop further over waters near 80 to low 80s.

[GeneratorPower]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100437
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
WELL DEFINED 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. ALTHOUGH THIS
LOW/WAVE IS BETTER ORGANIZED...IT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SLOW ANY TROPICAL FORMATION WILL BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

This is a 1011mb low. It's definately worth watching, and shouldn't be written off. But, of course, you're entitiled to your opinion. I say, if you don't want to discuss it, find another thread that you do want to discuss. This thread is for folks who do.

[Jam151]

Jam151, you might aswell call the NHC crazy because they expect some slow development from this Invest too.

Hurricane center also says condtions will be unfavorable and development IF ANY is expected to be slow. So no the Hurricane center isn't crazy, they are just being the Hurricane center. They have to at least cover themselves somewhat, because the system doesn't look half bad. Odds are slim though of any development.

[GeneratorPower]

There is no reason to try and prevent discussion of this wave by being the "reality" police.

[Jam151]

Lonely in the reality circle because everyone is in the crazy house tonight . I will admit that this system does look better and it has even shocked me with its improvement, but the enviroment ahead of the system is not right for development. I guess everyone can watch it if they want but i'm just so lonely in my reality circle, come on everyone break out of the crazy house and join in the reality circle, PLEASE!!!!

I'm here stating facts...In yes the convection has developed around a surface low pressure area. In yes there is deeping shear at around 50 to 60 west because of a weakness between the two highs. Which should weaken over the next few days...While the ridge to the north rebuilds forcing the system to turn westward into the caribbean.

Also the Gfs holds the Anticyclone over the distrabance...So maybe it could be strong enough to push through. Cmc knocks it down...I will have another update when the 00z models come in. So stating its possible for some development is crazy? I don't think so the gfs been trying to close something off for the last few days. Yes the caribbean is very unfaverbale...Also the quickscats do not show a LLC heck they don't even show a strong tropical wave at the surface. But its a wait an see...

Thanks for proving my point. The gfs shows what a 1016mb low, doesn't seem like development to me. Like I said it looks good now, but enviroment ahead is not good for development. As far as for crazy peeps, those are the ones talking like this is a hurricane already. Lets step back a second and look at everything without the "I want a hurricane right now" glasses on. All this is my opinion, sorry if i affended anyone with my post I just think some are going to far. We will get our storm eventually, just be patient.

93L which was in the same region about 2 weeks ago and now even stronger 96L is NOT a trend we want folks because certainly each wave is getting stronger and better organized and it is only July. Just wait until August - I think these invests are a sign of a pretty active CV season that will get cranking once this TUTT moves out.

This is what i've been saying, wait till august. Yeah stuff can develop in july but this isn't 2005 and normal july is slim to none when it comes to development.

[Jam151]

There is no reason to try and prevent discussion of this wave by being the "reality" police.

I'm not trying to prevent discussion of this wave. I'm just wondering why anyone would want to discuss it when conditions give it no shot. I could see if models were pointing to development but they aren't.

[NDG]

Since when have models been proven to be 100% right, there have been times when they show development and nothing develops, there have been other times that they don't show and development does occur.

[cheezyWXguy]

As we approach the diurnal minimum, the wave holds its deep convection and the center continues to be swallowed by the convection...I have nothing more to say except that theres a slight chance of additional slight development tomorrow, depending on how well organized it is in the morning...and that there maybe a better chance at development as it nears the w. caribbean...as for now its a wait and see game. Ive seen tonight, so Im waiting till tomorrow to look again...it beddy-bye time for me!!!

-nighty night
Z
z
z

[Jam151]

Since when have models been proven to be 100% right, there have been times when they show development and nothing develops, there have been other times that they don't show and development does occur.

Regardless of the models their is 50-60knt shear west of this system along with the dry air that it will soon take in. All this equals no development. I'll keep watching it though because thats what I do, but the odds don't favor it.

[NDG]

Since when have models been proven to be 100% right, there have been times when they show development and nothing develops, there have been other times that they don't show and development does occur.

Regardless of the models their is 50-60knt shear west of this system along with the dry air that it will soon take in. All this equals no development. I'll keep watching it though because thats what I do, but the odds don't favor it.

Yes, there is strong shear west of this system, but have you looked how long it will be before this system gets to that area, and are you positivily sure that upper level conditions will stay that hostile by then?
I did checked and conditions will be much better in the eastern Caribbean by the time this system gets there, past the eastern Caribbean that's when it could start encountering more hostile upper level conditions.

[cheezyWXguy]

ya and by the time it gets passed the eastern carribean the front willve lifted out and conditions would/may become more favorable

[NDG]

Well, the Canadian model is now picking up on the system better than its previus runs, is not developing it in the beginning until it brings it across the eastern Caribbean as a strong tropical wave and then developing it as it gets to the western Caribbean, that's a step above its 12z run when it barely showed a tropical wave coming into the eartern Caribbean.

[Jam151]

Well, the Canadian model is now picking up on the system better than its previus runs, is not developing it in the beginning until it brings it across the eastern Caribbean as a strong tropical wave and then developing it as it gets to the western Caribbean, that's a step above its 12z run when it barely showed a tropical wave coming into the eartern Caribbean.

You're telling me that one of the most aggressive global models is still not even showing a closed off low, yet that is a sign of increased chance of development?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like models are starting to catch on to possible development from this system. I'm starting to beleive that we MIGHT get TS Beryl from this wave if it continues to organize.

[NDG]

Well that was an argument that some people had today, that, not even the Canadian was doing much with this system, so now it is. But I do agree, the Canadian has been very aggressive this year.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The global models are not that good at working with tropical cyclones. Over the years they have been improved for there ghost canes. But instead now have the problem of not developing/closing off low pressure area's. Another thing is global models even showing a strong wave like system can be a tropical storm for that reason. I'v seen it many of times. So it even developing it to the point of it is is impressive. If the ECMWF was showing development that would be amazing.

I'm not hyping anything.

[hicksta]

LOL, bro its a wave right now not devopled at all. and your already saying texas landfall. lol i almost fell out of my chair laughin

Yall are probably gonna go against me on this but im actualy looking forward to development...the more it organizes the better chance there is of it staying intact(duh). A previous AFD from houston that was stated earlier this morning in a post farther back in this thread said that theres a chance that the wave may make it to Texas...Im hoping it doesnt get too strong, but strong enough to remain intact until it makes landfall...im hoping to god it makes it to texas so it can bring some much needed rain to our state and hopefully make it up into the dallas area where i live. Remember, im not -removed- anything more than a moderate TS at most for this system...IN no way do I want to see a massive hurricane destroy the Texas coast.
Just some rain that will bring us closer to ending our drought

[Jam151]

This system is forecasted by the GFS, which usually has a good handle on upper level winds, to have good to fair upper level winds until it gets just past PR if it stays south of 15N lat, some of you were arguing that the dry & stable air to its north was going to kill this system today, but all you have to see is the water vapor images winning the battle against the dry air at this time.

This system has a good 96 hrs of medium favorable conditions to develop, more than enough to develop further over waters near 80 to low 80s.

If the gfs is right then it will be north of 15N in east caribbean (closer to puerto rico). if the wave is more southerly then u got to throw out the upper wind forecast. the wave is part of the pattern you know. okay thats enough I'll comment on whats left of this thing tommorw, probably gonna be the last time I post on it since it should be gone by then.