Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060721 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060721 0000 060721 1200 060722 0000 060722 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 123.9W 13.4N 125.9W 14.0N 128.0W 14.4N 130.2W
BAMM 13.0N 123.9W 13.5N 125.6W 14.1N 127.3W 14.9N 129.1W
LBAR 13.0N 123.9W 13.5N 125.8W 14.2N 128.4W 15.0N 131.1W
SHIP 120KTS 120KTS 111KTS 95KTS
DSHP 120KTS 120KTS 111KTS 95KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060723 0000 060724 0000 060725 0000 060726 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 132.2W 14.8N 135.5W 15.4N 136.7W 17.9N 136.9W
BAMM 15.6N 130.9W 16.7N 134.5W 17.7N 137.5W 18.4N 140.4W
LBAR 15.6N 134.1W 16.1N 140.0W 16.1N 145.2W 15.4N 148.4W
SHIP 78KTS 54KTS 41KTS 36KTS
DSHP 78KTS 54KTS 41KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 123.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 122.2W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 120.7W
WNDCUR = 120KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 110KT
CENPRS = 942MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 120NM



120 kts now.

[CrazyC83]

How strong can he get?

[bombarderoazul]

Category 5s in the EPAC usually occur during El Ninos. The sole exception being Hurricane Ava in 1973, which oddly enough, occured during a La Nina.

EPAC Category 5s:

Hurricane Ava 1973
Hurricane Gilma 1994
Hurricane John 1994
Hurricane Guillermo 1997
Hurricane Linda 1997
Hurricane Elida 2002 (posthumous upgrade to Category 5)
Hurricane Hernan 2002
Hurricane Kenna 2002

Don't forget Emilia 1994!

Also don't forget Hurricane Patsy and the Mexico hurricane of 1959. The mexico Hurricane remains the only category 5 storm to make landfall at that intensity.

[JonathanBelles]

theres nothing to stop it, it mise well keep going, it cant hurt anything for awhile

[CrazyC83]

theres nothing to stop it, it mise well keep going, it cant hurt anything for awhile

Category 5 maybe?

[JonathanBelles]

theres nothing to stop it, it mise well keep going, it cant hurt anything for awhile

Category 5 maybe?

possible but im only a in-training amatuer

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say its abotu 130 knots right now perfect shape and pretty cold cloud tops. Not quit cold enough to say cat5. But I'v seen cat5s have the same kind of cloud tops.

[Cyclenall]

What else does Daniel need to do before he becomes a category 5 hurricane? Colder cloud tops? Is that the only thing left?

[WindRunner]

What else does Daniel need to do before he becomes a category 5 hurricane? Colder cloud tops? Is that the only thing left?

Well, 156mph sustained winds helps, too . . .

[Cyclenall]

What else does Daniel need to do before he becomes a category 5 hurricane? Colder cloud tops? Is that the only thing left?

Well, 156mph sustained winds helps, too . . .

Haha, that's real funny. The only problem is I'm trying to find out how Daniel will get those winds. It's just like saying that Daniel needs to become a CAT5 hurricane to be a CAT5 hurricane. Get it?

[cycloneye]

071
WTPZ45 KNHC 210244
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006

THE STRUCTURE OF DANIEL HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE HURRICANE IS MAINTAINING A LARGE WELL-DEFINED EYE/EYEWALL WITH
OUTER BANDING FEATURES. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 115 KT...WHILE THE LATEST 3-HR AVERAGE RAW
ADT FROM UW/CIMSS IS T6.6...OR 130 KT. A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES
IS USED TO ARRIVE AT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 120 KT. THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WITH NO WELL-DEFINED OUTER EYEWALLS
APPARENT...A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. AFTER 24-36
HOURS DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND A GRADUAL DECAY
IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND SO LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE HEADING IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY
96 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ALASKA...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
SLOWS AND BENDS NORTHWESTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 13.1N 124.3W 120 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 13.6N 125.6W 125 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 14.1N 127.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 14.5N 129.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 15.0N 130.8W 85 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 26/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If Katrina was where this is it would be 125 to 130 knots...

[Cyclenall]

I hope Daniel is not doing what I think he is doing. Is he doing the un-thinkable? ERC? sure hope not since he is annular...

[CrazyC83]

I'm ready to boldly predict that he will indeed reach Category 5...

[AnnularCane]

Daniel never really struck me as annular, but maybe they don't all look like Isabel.

ERC occurred to me too.

[benny]

TRMM says ERC... so much for the doughnut dream.. give it 12-24 hours and we'll see what he looks like...

[Jim Cantore]

This is such a Beautiful storm

[Cyclenall]

I'm ready to boldly predict that he will indeed reach Category 5...

That is a very bold prediction. I sure hope this does happen so that I don't get bored. Then again, everything else I used to do is put on hold since Daniel and Bud formed. And that's just the Epac....wow.

Daniel never really struck me as annular, but maybe they don't all look like Isabel.

What? Daniel was a perfect example of a annular hurricane aside from Isabel back in 2003. And yes, they all don't look like Isabel but they all have large, perfect round eyes with no bands.

TRMM says ERC... so much for the doughnut dream.. give it 12-24 hours and we'll see what he looks like...

Darn, I was hoping it wasn't a ERC. We had the dream come to light....that was today . However, I want more doughnut Daniel!!

This is such a Beautiful storm

Oh yes, who couldn't agree? I got over 150 images of Daniel alone saved.

[Epsilon_Fan]

yup, looks like another ERC with the double eye feature... I wonder if he'll give it one more shot to get to Cat 5 before it reaches that cool water?

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 210858
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

SHORTLY AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE...A TRMM PASS REVEALED THAT
DANIEL WAS UNDERGOING ANOTHER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
BY 0440 UTC...A SSMI PASS INDICATED THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL HAD
BECOME PREDOMINANT. REGARDLESS...DANIEL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE
MAJOR HURRICANE AS DISPLAYED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE
115 KT. DUE TO THE EYEWALL CYCLE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 115 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS THIS VALUE FOR 12
HOURS IN THE EVENT THE HURRICANE TRIES TO MAKE ANOTHER COME BACK
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THEREAFTER...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS COOLER WATERS WHICH
SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE PAST 12-HOUR MOTION IS 285/9. IT APPEARS THAT THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS NUDGED DANIEL A BIT MORE TO THE WEST THAN THE
PREVIOUS 12-18 HOUR TREND. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. DANIEL IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK OF
DANIEL WILL DEPEND UPON THE STRENGTH OF AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH OF ALASKA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
TROUGH. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS THE
CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD IN DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 13.2N 125.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 13.6N 126.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W 105 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 130.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 132.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 135.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 137.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN



Aparently it has reached it's peak intensity.