98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[HURAKAN]

Furthermore, dropped from NRL'S back-up site!!!

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[Stormcenter]

Whatever this is there continues to be some serious storms developing in the GOM right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

Where do you the the TCFA? What link?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html

[gatorcane]

The low is over land, until it gets over water there will be no tropical cyclone formation.

[Hohwxny]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT!!!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/al962006.gif

Didn't you declare this dead an hour ago?

[Thunder44]

98L is still on the NRL site, but with they further south position 96L had.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT!!!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/al962006.gif

Didn't you declare this dead an hour ago?

At least the low south of Brownsville. But I don't what will happen now!!! That's why I used the exclamation signs because it's just laughable!!!One minute you think you know what is going to happen, the next something unexpected like the TCFA comes up.

[drezee]

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTH OVER MARINE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. SHOWERS
MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA HAVE SPRINKLED BRO ALREADY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW ALSO MOVING NORTH OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS. SURFACE STREAMLINES HINT THAT THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ASHORE FARTHER NORTH...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET FOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST AND CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.

TWEAKED THE THE FIRST PERIOD CONDITIONS IN THE CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE
TO REFLECT THE POP GRADIENT FROM OFFSHORE TO INLAND...AND ADDED
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. CONSIDERING FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL
AREAS...BUT WILL WAIT A BIT LONGER ON ANY ISSUANCE. MEANTIME...
GENERAL MENTION OF LOCAL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS COVERED IN THE HWO
PRODUCT AND SPECIFIC MENTION WILL BE HANDLED IN THE NOW PRODUCT.
&&

[Steve]

Tally for my area through parts of Jefferson was 2.5" yesterday. This is clearly a SE TX and S LA rain event at this point. I'm looking at another 2+ today bringing the (= my) total to around 4.5-5" by the end of today. I assumed that the 3-day event would bring 3-5" over most of the Gulf Coast, but it may turn out to be a more localized event between Corpus and Mobile Bay. Energy is on the march. When the minimum hits, it should knock things back sufficiently to give us a couple of hours break this afternoon before re-firing again early this evening.

And you can take that to the bank.

Steve

[T-man]

Steve, only .08 fell down on the bayou here yesterday. Day before, 1.78. So it's still hit and miss coverage. Take that to the bank.

[Steve]

>>Steve, only .08 fell down on the bayou here yesterday. Day before, 1.78. So it's still hit and miss coverage. Take that to the bank.



According to the rainfall estimates, there was a swath running from Lafourche up north of you through the west bank and into Metairie of 2-2.5". Obviously this stuff will be localized to the area you are in, but it's still going to be widespread enough to add up totals of 2-3" today in many places. We actually didn't see much of anything on Sunday where I'm at (presumably about 25 miles to your WSW) but got some good soakers yesterday. The worst one I saw (other than the lightning bolt storm that hit my boy's driveway in Metairie around 5:15) was a storm I encountered crossing the 310 bridge around 6ish. That was a bad boy. Everyone was going 35-40 and NO ONE goes slow on that bridge. I was laughing because I was listening to WWL's "recorded weather forecast" and Carl was talking about less coverage and diminishing rainfall. I was like "yeah, okay." We got at least 2 more storms down in Bayou Lafourche later that evening.

Steve

[tailgater]

Steve, only .08 fell down on the bayou here yesterday. Day before, 1.78. So it's still hit and miss coverage. Take that to the bank.

I have only recieved .10 in the last 4 days in Ascension Parish
I guess I'll have to wash my truck to get some here.

[T-man]

Yes, I watched the rain train just to the northwest of me all day yesterday. Today will be a different story. Can't wait to see what the models do with the new area they are now interested in. Looks like they may already be hinting at a NNE movement.

[Stormcenter]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT!!!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/al962006.gif

Is this disturbance really moving NNE? It does look like most of the convection has shifted offshore.

[Stormcenter]

It stands out like a sore thumb.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Stratosphere747]

Whatever low there is looks to be onshore, just south of Brownsville. Almost has a more NW motion to it.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Thunder44]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT!!!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/al962006.gif

Is this disturbance really moving NNE? It does look like most of the convection has shifted offshore.

I don't see any center where they placed it. I think they are really in process of removing 98L from the site.

[JonathanBelles]

title fix needed: its 98 not 96

[drezee]

That is not a typo...Galveston Pier just report a wind gust of 49 knots or 56 mph!

GPST2 O 1418 29.29 -94.79 173 35 120 22.0 49.0 - - - - 29.94 - 80.8 84.0

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=GPST2

[PTrackerLA]

The bulk of the convection seems to be headed right for Louisiana . I don't see much movement towards Texas with this thing, more of NNE movement. Looks like a VERY wet day is in store for us if this convection holds together. Wouuldn't be surprised to see a depression spin up in all that mess, it's happened before.