Hurricane Ioke thread

[MiamiensisWx]

It's not threatening land, and though it would probably be interesting to fly into, it's definately not worth the fuel cost (at this point) of flying out to Hawaii.

Isn't it threatening Johnston Atoll (Johnston Island), though? I thought the island was inhabited by some due to it's use as a military/air base.

[Evil Jeremy]

will it go as far as the WPAC?

[wxmann_91]

FWIW, enough persistance from the GFS has arisen for me to believe there is a very good chance now of this reaching the WPAC and reintensifying there. The GFDL really doesn't weaken this much, and in fact, intensifies this to a 939 mb cane, not really passing much further north beyond 20N. For at least eight consecutive runs (AFAIK, perhaps more), the GFDL has failed to weaken Ioke much beneath a Cat 3. In addition, many runs of the GFS have carried this across the WPAC, nearing Japan in 2-and-a-half weeks. Yes, it is still >180 hr away, but the persistance intrigues me. Not saying this is going to happen, but there is a possibilility that we may still be dealing with a potent hurricane a week from now, despite SHIPS wanting to weaken this below hurricane status at the 120 hr mark. Besides, SHIPS is known for overdoing shear.

I'll leave you all with a satellite image of three Pacific storms, TS's Hector and Ileana, and Ioke:

(click to enlarge)

[WindRunner]

It's not threatening land, and though it would probably be interesting to fly into, it's definately not worth the fuel cost (at this point) of flying out to Hawaii.

Isn't it threatening Johnston Atoll (Johnston Island), though? I thought the island was inhabited by some due to it's use as a military/air base.

the military base was closed down in 2003. There used to be about 1100 people on the island. Now, it is a wildlife refuge

And from Wikipedia: "The atoll has no indigenous inhabitants, although during the latter 20th century there was an average of 1,100 U.S. military and civilian contractor personnel present at any given time."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnston_Atoll

So in theory there might be, but it is officially part of the US Pacific Islands Wildlife Refuge right now.



And beautiful image, wxmann. Quite a sight.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

115 knots/135 mph cat4! On nrl!

[WindRunner]

And models . . .

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IOKE (CP012006) ON 20060822 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060822 0000 060822 1200 060823 0000 060823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 167.0W 15.5N 168.8W 17.0N 169.8W 17.9N 170.3W
BAMM 13.5N 167.0W 15.2N 168.7W 16.4N 170.0W 17.2N 170.9W
SHIP 115KTS 126KTS 120KTS 105KTS
DSHP 115KTS 126KTS 120KTS 105KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060824 0000 060825 0000 060826 0000 060827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 170.9W 18.4N 172.8W 18.1N 175.3W 17.5N 178.3W
BAMM 17.7N 171.6W 18.1N 173.5W 18.0N 175.9W 18.0N 179.5W
SHIP 92KTS 70KTS 54KTS 38KTS
DSHP 92KTS 70KTS 54KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 167.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 165.2W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 163.2W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 945MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 160NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 120NM

[Brent]

WOW. Impressive.

[Cyclenall]

When I first looked at the NRL after going out today, my jaw almost dropped to the floor at the SAT image. I have never seen anything like this since I never followed the Cpac before 2005. Ioke looks stunning!!! Clear round eye with a Hurricane Emily (2005) like appearance. Man, the tropics are so active except the Wpac!

I'd say that's a category 4 hurricane at 115 knots for sure. I can't believe another round of rapid strengthening just happened while I was gone!!

[Ptarmigan]

You rarely see a tropical storm, hurricane, or let alone a major hurricane in the Central Pacific, off the coast of Hawaii. I am impressed. Remember Hurricane Iniki in 1992? It made landfall on September 11, 1992, not too long after Hurricane Andrew.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The tropics are not active? The Eastern Pacific is pretty normal overall. But the rest of the world is below avg. Ioke is something amazing none the less. Td 4 is nothing to get jumpy about.

[WindRunner]

I'll throw out another tidbit here . . . assuming the 5pm advisory is at 115kts, then Ioke will have an ACE of 4.245 (I think . . . I just did it up and now I can't remember) - over half of the entire Atlantic basin's ACE so far this season.

[senorpepr]

The tropics are not active? The Eastern Pacific is pretty normal overall. But the rest of the world is below avg. Ioke is something amazing none the less. Td 4 is nothing to get jumpy about.

The EPAC is more below normal that the Atlantic is...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It now has a floater over it....The eastern Pacific floater. Its moving north-northwestward. Killing its chances of getting into the western Pacific. The cdo is improving.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Andrew92]

Without a doubt the most amazing storm of 2006, in ANY basin! Don't care if there have been storms elsewhere that were stronger, to see a storm like this in the CPAC, I have just one word: WOW!

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

I am sticking with my very bold prediction. 145mph by midnight Hawaiian time, and Category 5 tomorrow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would say 120 knots now=140 mph.

6 hours 125 knots/145 mph
12 hours 130 knots/150 mph
24 hours 120 knots EWRC/System moving into the shear. Enviroment starts getting less faverable.
36 100 knots
48 90 knots
60 85 knots
72 80 knots

This depends if it turns back more westward or doe's it stay more northward. If it go northward it will enter cooler sst's around 60 to 72 hours. As it passes 25 north.

[CrazyC83]

Could she go annular though?

[whereverwx]

Here's 47.5 hours of Ioke (7 mb): http://www.fileden.com/files/18324/48hoursofiuko.gif

[CrazyC83]

000
WTPA32 PHFO 220255
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 PM HST MON AUG 21 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 167.4 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 810 MILES... SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...13.9 N...167.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.


AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER TANABE/NASH

[LAwxrgal]

From the brief glimpse I've seen of her, Ioke looks like a compact but dangerous little system... She's not of any threat to Hawaii ATM right?