TD Debby E Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #D

#201 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:27 am

storms in NC wrote:I am haveing trouble seeing the LLC can some one show me? I zoomed in and What seem to be to LLC is just south of path. I know I am wrong that is why I ask.

It's not just you - I'm having trouble pinpointing it exactly as well. Convection has dropped off considerably over the last few hours. Looks to be around 17.2N/31.6W, though.

#202 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:28 am

Thank you very much. will try later in the day.

#203 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:33 am

wxman57 wrote:
storms in NC wrote:I am haveing trouble seeing the LLC can some one show me? I zoomed in and What seem to be to LLC is just south of path. I know I am wrong that is why I ask.

It's not just you - I'm having trouble pinpointing it exactly as well. Convection has dropped off considerably over the last few hours. Looks to be around 17.2N/31.6W, though.

Yep...gulping in that stable air.

Yum Yum...

dwg71 · #204 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:37 am

I just don't see this reaching Hurricane strength. I may be wrong, but I feel based on the path its taking and its current state, I just dont see it.

#205 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:42 am

dwg71 wrote:I just don't see this reaching Hurricane strength. I may be wrong, but I feel based on the path its taking and its current state, I just dont see it.

Hurricane strength is looking less likely. But a number of late-season 2006 storms became hurricanes where Debby is heading. Just takes a brief period of very favorable conditions.

#206 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:42 am

dwg71 wrote:I just don't see this reaching Hurricane strength. I may be wrong, but I feel based on the path its taking and its current state, I just dont see it.

I think it is going to be a struggle. I have a hard time seeing it as well.

There are some higher TCHPs ahead...in 3-4 days...but by that time the southerly shear should be strong...if the models verify.

One thing is for sure...there is a lot of stable air around right now...as evident on the satellite (all the stratocu around) and the TCHP is low...so it won't be any time soon.

#207 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:59 am

not looking to good right now. I guess the dry air is not helping. It is fanning out more and not as tight as it was.

JTD · #208 Postby **JTD** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:03 am

2006 is the year of the sheared pathetic tropical storms.

Will we ever see a hurricane again. LOL.

Sanibel · #209 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:15 am

Hard to tell. Systems that bull through bad environments like this sometimes rebloom once they reach favorability.

#210 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:26 am

Can it relocate the center? looks like it is falling apart

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

wxmann_91 · #211 Postby **wxmann_91** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:31 am

jason0509 wrote:2006 is the year of the sheared pathetic tropical storms.

Will we ever see a hurricane again. LOL.

Yes, you will. :roll:

In the Pacific, that is. :wink:

#212 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:52 am

Debby has still yet to make a Northwestward turn that has been forecasted. This system is farther west and not as far north as what was expected.

It is very interesting to me the different discussion of Stewart/Brown/Franklin.

#213 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:56 am

I was thinking that same thing. It looks like it is farther south now of the forcast path. I think the center is trying relocate.IMO :?:

I am wrong. Just seen the center and it is not south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

#214 Postby **hiflyer** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 12:07 pm

Looks like the DC8 is really sniffing around 16.41 -31.48.....and dropped down to 10,000 feet.

#215 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 12:16 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Debby has still yet to make a Northwestward turn that has been forecasted. This system is farther west and not as far north as what was expected.

It is very interesting to me the different discussion of Stewart/Brown/Franklin.

You must be looking at a different storm than I am. I calculate a movement of 300 degrees for the past 24 hours and 312 deggees in the past 6 hours. Following the track well. If anything, it's right of the forecast. It's a fish.

My current estimate of the center is 17.4N/32W. I'll post a McIDAS image shortly that shows the center well.

#216 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 12:19 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Debby has still yet to make a Northwestward turn that has been forecasted. This system is farther west and not as far north as what was expected.

It is very interesting to me the different discussion of Stewart/Brown/Franklin.

If you go here you can see the center well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

#217 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 12:22 pm

storms in NC wrote:If you go here you can see the center well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Can't really tell the precise Lat/Lon on that picture, it's so small and no 1-deg lat/lon lines. A few more minutes, my 1715Z image is still scanning.

#218 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 12:27 pm

Here ya go. 17.4N/32.1W at 1715Z:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby15.gif

WmE · #219 Postby **WmE** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 12:28 pm

wxman57 wrote:Here ya go. 17.4N/32.1W at 1715Z:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby15.gif

Thanks!

#220 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 12:30 pm

The system is struggling this afternoon.

TD Debby E Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #D

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