Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

I can breathe easier if this is right. The 500 High is over the central Gulf.

I posted this on another thread...but it belongs here too...so I am reposting it:

Well...looking at the current run...there are some subtle changes.

Old
Latest

The high is more to the NE. Instead of being at 91W...it's at 89W. INstead of just ridging into Florida...there is another high now over Florida. Where there was substantial ridging into west TX...now there is none.

The models are every changing.

18Z is now running..

[Air Force Met]

i still think that this will end up being a SFL situation.

Can you PLEASE give us an explaination on WHY you think it will end up going on a 305 heading (which is what it has to do to make it to saouth Florida)...

Either do that...or at least say..."I have nothing to back it up...it's just a feeling..."

That way people who don't know better can just ignore it. All this "gut call" forecasting with nothing to back it up gets kinda old...

Especially when most of the gut calls are where the person lives.

Back it up with data or put an advisory label on it so others know not to take it seriously.

Think about it...this is a forum for learning....and if you can just put some information behind WHY you think that...we can all have a discussion on it and all learn something...instead of a bunch of posts saying "Naw...not gonna happen."

[jpigott]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

I can breathe easier if this is right. The 500 High is over the central Gulf.

I posted this on another thread...but it belongs here too...so I am reposting it:

Well...looking at the current run...there are some subtle changes.

Old
Latest

The high is more to the NE. Instead of being at 91W...it's at 89W. INstead of just ridging into Florida...there is another high now over Florida. Where there was substantial ridging into west TX...now there is none.

The models are every changing.

Does this mean a likely tract shift east as the models have the high more to the NE

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18 Z GFS is running now..

[jwayne]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

I can breathe easier if this is right. The 500 High is over the central Gulf.

I posted this on another thread...but it belongs here too...so I am reposting it:

Well...looking at the current run...there are some subtle changes.

Old
Latest

The high is more to the NE. Instead of being at 91W...it's at 89W. INstead of just ridging into Florida...there is another high now over Florida. Where there was substantial ridging into west TX...now there is none.

The models are every changing.

Does this mean a likely tract shift east as the models have the high more to the NE

I'm only an amateur, but I think it opens the door to a Texas/La track. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

We'll have to wait and see what the 500 pattern is on down the road, just way to early..

[ronjon]

A question for any MET - AFM just posted a 500 mb chart that showed some subtle differences. Being an amateur, I can't pick them out. I can see how flow evolves along the northern branch of the jet stream but when I focus on the southern US, all I see is this broad elongated ridge. What do u look for in steering currents when a tropical cyclone approaches the area of the broad ridge? Or does the cyclone simply steer around it?

[x-y-no]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

I can breathe easier if this is right. The 500 High is over the central Gulf.

I posted this on another thread...but it belongs here too...so I am reposting it:

Well...looking at the current run...there are some subtle changes.

Old
Latest

The high is more to the NE. Instead of being at 91W...it's at 89W. INstead of just ridging into Florida...there is another high now over Florida. Where there was substantial ridging into west TX...now there is none.

The models are every changing.

They must have done some serious tweaking of the GFS code or something ... remember the past several years how it consistantly eroded mid-level ridges way too fast? Remember all the storms like Ivan, Jeanne, Frances, etc. which it kept trying to turn north within a day or two of every run because it kept losing that ridge when it shouldn't?

Makes me wonder ... have they fixed it, or have they overcompensated? Guess we'll find out over next few weeks.

[Praxus]

The path indicates a risk for cancun / mexican riviera...can you imagine if they got hit again, after getting hammered so bad last year

This storm is particularly worrisome in that the track could possible take it over jamaica then over cancun before even getting close to a US landfall. If this strengthens it could be quite destructive, even if it just ends up landing on some barren south texas coast.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

How? with high building? TD is to far south to get S. Florida

You think Western Gulf?

As of now, yes!

I'm about 90 miles down the coast from you (inland a little from Houston). I don't like the sound of that!!

do you mean the matagorda bay area or south?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Way to early to say.. But Texas or Mexico w\are the favorates. In about 3 days or so should be able to tell.,.

[CrazyC83]

The path indicates a risk for cancun / mexican riviera...can you imagine if they got hit again, after getting hammered so bad last year

This storm is particularly worrisome in that the track could possible take it over jamaica then over cancun before even getting close to a US landfall. If this strengthens it could be quite destructive, even if it just ends up landing on some barren south texas coast.

The area south of Cuba is the warmest spot in the entire Atlantic basin right now. If the storm moves over that, look out!

That is where I think the monster will brew. I really think we could see a Category 4 or 5 out of this.

[Air Force Met]

I'm only an amateur, but I think it opens the door to a Texas/La track. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Right...it means that the GOM west of 90 has to watch it. I still think the ridge will keep out of FL/AL. Through 72 hours, when the system is near Jaimaca and the models are still fairly accurate...the ridging is still strong to the north. At that point it is alread at 76W. The tricky part comes later as it nears the Yucatan.

Even if the system moves more WNW....it will bump into the ridge to its north and eventually head back west.

For what its worth...the HPC forecast points are different from the NHC points. The 72 hour point was 20N/78W and the 120H point was 24N and 86W...so the HPC is going for more of a WNW track at the end of the period along the southern tip of Cuba and into the SE GOM.

[Trugunzn]

This thing would develop a lot faster if it slowed down.

[jwayne]

How? with high building? TD is to far south to get S. Florida

You think Western Gulf?

As of now, yes!

I'm about 90 miles down the coast from you (inland a little from Houston). I don't like the sound of that!!

do you mean the matagorda bay area or south?

actually, not all that far from you.

[chrisnnavarre]

The path indicates a risk for cancun / mexican riviera...can you imagine if they got hit again, after getting hammered so bad last year

This storm is particularly worrisome in that the track could possible take it over jamaica then over cancun before even getting close to a US landfall. If this strengthens it could be quite destructive, even if it just ends up landing on some barren south texas coast.

The area south of Cuba is the warmest spot in the entire Atlantic basin right now. If the storm moves over that, look out!

That is where I think the monster will brew. I really think we could see a Category 4 or 5 out of this.

And once it brews it will move more poleward. At least that's what Ivan and Katrina did.

[Vortex]

Several models including the GFDL,NAM, and to some extent the GFS continue to indicate a slowing of TD #5 with a gradual turn to the NW. The reason appears to be a trough over the western carribean and a weakness to the north of the Greater antilles. Given the current and forecasted synoptic environment I think this seems very possible.


18z NAM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Air Force Met]

Several models including the GFDL,NAM, and to some extent the GFS continue to indicate a slowing of TD #5 with a gradual turn to the NW. The reason appears to be a trough over the western carribean and a weakness to the north of the Greater antilles. Given the current and forecasted synoptic environment I think this seems very possible.


18z NAM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The GFDL and the NAM have a tendency to stear storms too much based on the shear involved....thats why the NHC has discounted the GFDL track on this advisory.

[ronjon]

Several models including the GFDL,NAM, and to some extent the GFS continue to indicate a slowing of TD #5 with a gradual turn to the NW. The reason appears to be a trough over the western carribean and a weakness to the north of the Greater antilles. Given the current and forecasted synoptic environment I think this seems very possible.


18z NAM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The GFDL and the NAM have a tendency to stear storms too much based on the shear involved....thats why the NHC has discounted the GFDL track on this advisory.

The NAM has really turned into the phantom cyclone maker this year. I'm not sure what tweaks they made to the WRF, but they may need to revisit the model code shop for a major tuneup after this season. The GFDL, on the other hand, I have a lot of respect for - especially since it was the only model to correctly predict Katrina's southward jog over the everglades last year. During Chris, however, the GFDL prediction on track was rather poor so I don't know what to make of it. Both the GFS and GFDL seem to be the farthest north with tracks so I don't think it can be easily dismissed.

[Scott_inVA]

FREEBIE TD Five model map from Mid-Atlantic WX.com:



FWIW, I do not see any sensible solution that recurves the TC before 85° West (~ western tip of Cuba). The GFS @18Z remains clueless and is discounted, as is the lofty GFDL. I hope to get consensus runs from GUNS and GUNA with the 0Z models...if so I'll strip those out and post here.

*IF* this survives, Tex/Mex is in the game.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA