Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

Derek Ortt · #201 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:50 pm

looks like the shear has hit it again

As for the upper wind forecasts, I really dont care what the models say. You have to go with synoptic regarding upper wind forecasts since the models are less accurate than Phil Mickelson's driver with regards to upper level forecasts

HouTXmetro · #202 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:51 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:latest GFDL forecast seems to have shifted westward (according to this graphic):

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

the question is when will we start seeing a trend in the models?

Stratosphere747 · #203 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:51 pm

the_winds_that_sheared_me wrote:When are they gonna send a Noaa plane--not recon but the one that checks the atmosphere around the storm to get a better idea for models? Or do they only do that for stronger storms?

That will be a key, and I've yet to see anything scheduled..

Should be soon though, IF this system even makes it...

#204 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:51 pm

wxman57 wrote: This is the last good visible image that coincides with the NHC 4pm CDT forecast time. Looks like a clear LLC (easier to see on loops) near 14.9N/68 or 68.1W. Their forecast position for 4pm CDT was 14.3N/67.6W, but that position would be on the outer ring of the low-level vortex to the southeast.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto35.jpg

Since 3:45pm CDT, the LLC has moved to about 68.6-68.7W and is near 15N. Can't really find it on IR imagery, though. Could be the NHC used a position midway between the LLC and MLC for their last forecast start point.

I was looking at a really good hi-res loop at that time and the LLC was a little elongated E-W but the main vorticity was actually back near the cirrus...

To get the movement (when someone asked me how fast it was moving)...I had to actually extrap it because the LLC was under the cirrus when it got dark. Looking at the channel 2 now it appears it is right on the NW side of the cirrus. No longer under it...but not far removed from it.

Derek Ortt · #205 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:51 pm

the G-IV was flying Debby today for a research project

Extremeweatherguy · #206 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:52 pm

Weren't the same mets posting now the ones that said that shear would be no issue yesterday? I am confused by these flip flops. Doesn't your forecast bring this up to a Cat. 2 in the GOM Derek? I really don't see how the whole situation would change so much in just a few hours. I don't know what to believe right now?

cpdaman · #207 Postby **cpdaman** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:53 pm

derek this thing could die tonite and u could be playing golf on sunday

Noles2006 · #208 Postby **Noles2006** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:54 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Weren't the same mets posting now the ones that said that shear would be no issue yesterday? I am confused by these flip flops. Doesn't your forecast bring this up to a Cat. 2 in the GOM Derek? I really don't see how the whole situation would change so much in just a few hours. I don't know what to believe right now?

Because shear is nearly impossible to predict.

#209 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:55 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Weren't the same mets posting now the ones that said that shear would be no issue yesterday? I am confused by these flip flops. Doesn't your forecast bring this up to a Cat. 2 in the GOM Derek? I really don't see how the whole situation would change so much in just a few hours. I don't know what to believe right now?

Better take the plural out of there...I've never said shear wouldn' be an issue. It won't be an issue later...but I've always maintained it would be one in the near term.

ConvergenceZone · #210 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:55 pm

I'll admit this is a bit different than normal. The NHC discussions all seem very bullish on development, but most of the talk here by the mets are more bearish on development, just the opposite.....The only thing I can think of is that perhaps the mets here see something that the national hurrican center isn't seeing.

Dusty

Derek Ortt · #211 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:56 pm

if it survives the next 72 hours it will be a significant GOM hurricane

Be patient EWG and stop freaking out just because ther eis a chance that you won't have a major hurricane in your backyard

Normandy · #212 Postby **Normandy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:56 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I'll admit this is a bit different than normal. The NHC discussions all seem very bullish on development, but most of the talk here by the mets are more bearish on development, just the opposite.....The only thing I can think of is that perhaps the mets here see something that the national hurrican center isn't seeing.

Dusty

Or the National Hurricane Center is seeing something the mets here are not....it could be that way you know.

calculatedrisk · #213 Postby **calculatedrisk** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:57 pm

Still plenty of shearing, but this is the best Ernesto has looked all day

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

cajungal · #214 Postby **cajungal** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:57 pm

Well the TWC says the shear is going to lessen within the next couple of days. But, the key is that it may tear the storm to shreads before then. Chris never did regenerate. And for the models, they mean almost nothing at this point. Until we get 72-48 hours away for landfall. Read Jeff Masters blog on http://www.wunderground.com and he says 3 of the 4 major models severly weaken it to almost nothing.

Galvestongirl · #215 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:57 pm

Be patient EWG and stop freaking out just because ther eis a chance that you won't have a major hurricane in your backyard

Please, if you have a problem with EWG, use the PM. I really thought this was uncalled for.

Extremeweatherguy · #216 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:57 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Weren't the same mets posting now the ones that said that shear would be no issue yesterday? I am confused by these flip flops. Doesn't your forecast bring this up to a Cat. 2 in the GOM Derek? I really don't see how the whole situation would change so much in just a few hours. I don't know what to believe right now?

Better take the plural out of there...I've never said shear wouldn' be an issue. It won't be an issue later...but I've always maintained it would be one in the near term.

I wasn't talking to you AFM. You just happened to post a few seconds before I clicked enter.

#217 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:58 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote: Why would the NHC give us a wrong location though? Didn't they fly recon into this. IMO, I think their location is probably correct due to the recon findings.

I'm not saying it was a "wrong" position. I said that they were possibly splitting the difference between the LLC and MLC because they expected the two would merge, and a compromise position may be best to use as a start point. I did the same thing, myself.

Scorpion · #218 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:58 pm

Deep convection continuing to form. My experience tells me with systems that continually form such convection they just don't dissipate.

Stratosphere747 · #219 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:58 pm

Nothing like arguing with the Pros, if there is even the proposition of things not falling like you want them...

Look short-term folks, at least for the next few days, and quite worrying about the landfall point...

Droop12 · #220 Postby **Droop12** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:58 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:if it survives the next 72 hours it will be a significant GOM hurricane

Be patient EWG and stop freaking out just because ther eis a chance that you won't have a major hurricane in your backyard

Low blow, Derek :lol:

Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

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