Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[Scorpion]

AF Met, ignore the "I told you so" posters on this board. We know who is truly reputable and who is not.

Agreed. A broken clock is right twice a day.

[Winsurfer]

ok, listin to me. i was the one who knew this thing was going to affect SFL, even before it was in the cone, and really none of trusted me. well, i was right!

Oh you are so smart! Next NHC conference call I'll tell Stacy Stewart there is a new king in town and he and the rest of the gang should quit...because we have a gut-call forecaster to take their place that is a lot better than all the other pro-mets.

Glad we have you here. Here...you can take my place.

AFM, I would rather have a wrong forecast with some "meat" BEHIND IT from you and the other pro mets, than a "my gut twitched to the right so the cane is going east" anyday. I live on the gulf coast and have learned that having more than just the local mets to listen to is a good thing.

[rxdoc]

stormspotter, what facts do you have to back up that forecast?

[Stormcenter]

Based on the observations of the latest watervapor loops, the small ULL low that has been causing the recent northward movements of Big "E" is now becoming a null factor and we will see Big "E" begin its more western track between Jamaica and Cuba today. Western and Central Gulf Coast keep your eyes open and be ready to act come Thur thru Sat. Not a Florida event east of Ft. Walton as some models have suggested.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

Please read the NHC 5am discussion.

[Lindaloo]

I bet you I won't be ignored. Let's get back on topic.

[Opal storm]

Based on the observations of the latest watervapor loops, the small ULL low that has been causing the recent northward movements of Big "E" is now becoming a null factor and we will see Big "E" begin its more western track between Jamaica and Cuba today. Western and Central Gulf Coast keep your eyes open and be ready to act come Thur thru Sat. Not a Florida event east of Ft. Walton as some models have suggested.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

I doubt that.Over the past 24-36 hrs the track has continued to shift east,and now even some of the pro mets are agreeing with GFS.

[BOPPA]

AFM - I like many others on this board (even though most of the time I
am a lurker) - depend on you and other Pro Mets for information and
guidance.

Being - at least at the present time - right in the middle of the cone of
a storm - well you can imagine how we are feeling right now.

Will look to you and the other pros to guide us through the upcoming
days - thanks for all you hard work.

[Starburst]

I think everyone in Florida needs to be well prepared. The Tampa Bay worst case senerio may come true with the flooding event. I copied this portion of Dr. Masters blog to share with all the Floridians:

The storm surge forecast
The waters along the west coast of Florida are very shallow, and extend out far into the Gulf of Mexico. This creates an ideal environment for a large storm surge to build, and storm surge heights over 10 feet are likely if Ernesto comes ashore as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane along the west coast of Florida. If Ernesto takes a track parallel to the coast and just offshore, a large storm surge could affect a very long portion of the Florida coast, causing immense damage.

From Dr. Masters Blog

[A1A]

Seele, you are right...the high in the upper levels is actually centered over Georgia (instead of off the SE Coast) (of course, this is based on current data and these maps do not project future steering flow):

Stronger storm steering:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

Weaker storm steering:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

So why isn't the stronger storm steering winning out in the ultimate path of Ernesto?

[chrisnnavarre]

Based on the observations of the latest watervapor loops, the small ULL low that has been causing the recent northward movements of Big "E" is now becoming a null factor and we will see Big "E" begin its more western track between Jamaica and Cuba today. Western and Central Gulf Coast keep your eyes open and be ready to act come Thur thru Sat. Not a Florida event east of Ft. Walton as some models have suggested.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

Nope, I don't think so either. We'll see more westerly movement today I believe due to exactly those factors you just mentioned. Boy, Cuba is going to be on the wrong side, so they will really get hammered.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

i hope it stays far enough away so that my beautiful Paradise Island isn't destroyed by the surge

[JtSmarts]

Do any of the pros think that Dr. Lyons'
scenario about Ernie is going over the E. tip of Cuba is viable?

[alan1961]

I can't see this storm getting in the gulf to be honest..its getting dragged further and further over the dominican and that will disrupt it..even if it drifted a little more north west cuba will disrupt it..sorry guys i think this storm as got a lot more fighting to do..ie landfall over whichever island, then it has to reform if it gets pulled apart to much..i can't see it surving a great deal to much!

[PTPatrick]

East tip of cuba isnt even in the 24 hour cone, so i will NO

[ROCK]

Do any of the pros think that Dr. Lyons'
scenario about Ernie is going over the E. tip of Cuba is viable.

define- viable scenario now after the past 24 hrs...

[rockyman]

Do any of the pros think that Dr. Lyons'
scenario about Ernie is going over the E. tip of Cuba is viable?

It appears that Dr. Lyons based his track on the 06z GFS (which starts out further east, but ends up much further west over the Panhandle). The shape of the ridge seems to support the GFS track in the short run. Also, if you watch the TWC forecast path, it does not show the "hook" into Tampa that NHC shows (of couse, TWC also does not show anything but a cone...no actual path prediction)

[Seele]

Seele, you are right...the high in the upper levels is actually centered over Georgia (instead of off the SE Coast) (of course, this is based on current data and these maps do not project future steering flow):

Stronger storm steering:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

Weaker storm steering:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

So why isn't the stronger storm steering winning out in the ultimate path of Ernesto?

Because Ernesto, in respect to it's current's 997mb pressure, is a weak system. The gradient of pressure to the surrounding area's surface pressure is primarily what causes wind speed, but when looking at those maps, it's the central pressure that determines the level of steering flow that will guide the system.

[PTPatrick]

Let me remind everyone, Frederic traversed the entire island of Haiti, as well as the Eastern and western tips of Cuba, and managed Cat 4 in the gulf...Georges also traveled from one end of Haiti to another, and then along the ENTTIRE north coast of Cuba and managed cat 2 in the Gulf....Jeanne stalled over Haiti and managed to hold it together...so I am saying, nothing is impossible here. I dont think the models NOR good reason predict that this will die of the hills and mountains of Cuba

[HURAKAN]

[TampaFl]

Something is not right, can't put my finger on it, but its not right. This storm will not be visiting S or SW Florida. There have been only a couple rare approaches to Florida like the models suggest. Look for one of two scenarios to play out. One - The hurricane slows considerably as it makes it trek, along, in and over Cuba, leading to a reemgergence early on Thur off the North Western tip of Cuba to then threaten Western or Central Gulf from Galveston to Ft. Walton beach. Two - Storm heads slowly northwest across Haiti, north, east of Florida threatening N.C. to Maine.

What do you have to back up your'e statement that it could be a Central to West Gulf prolem???