Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

HurricaneJim · #201 Postby **HurricaneJim** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:12 am

It's spinning along in little gyrations, general direction all evening has been NNW by N. It flew the coop on the start point for the 11pm forecast track almost before it was posted and it's still a tad east of the 2am. I can't for the life of me reason why they're progging this thing to suddenly take a left turn over land when water is what it feeds on.

We'll know for sure in about 5 hours or less....

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

Droop12 · #202 Postby **Droop12** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:12 am

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/animate/radar.jsp?prod=radar&id=mugm&type=base&frames=12&gtype=JPG

#203 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:14 am

stormtruth wrote:With the 2AM spotting from the NHC it almost looks like it could spend hardly anytime at all over Cuba. That would not be good news for SE Florida -- unless it misses Florida completely.

Even if it does, the Bahamas could face a solid hurricane. Also it could possibly swing a left into the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast, a la Hurricane Hazel?

Rainband · #204 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:14 am

HurricaneJim wrote:It's spinning along in little gyrations, general direction all evening has been NNW by N. It flew the coop on the start point for the 11pm forecast track almost before it was posted and it's still a tad east of the 2am. I can't for the life of me reason why they're progging this thing to suddenly take a left turn over land when water is what it feeds on.

We'll know for sure in about 5 hours or less....

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

I think they may know what they are doing. :wink:

HurricaneJim · #205 Postby **HurricaneJim** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:16 am

New Navy WAM run just posted ramps this thing up big time south of Long Island (!). Buzz saw up the FL coast and runs Gulf Stream all the way up.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

HurricaneJim · #206 Postby **HurricaneJim** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:17 am

And Wilma was going to dissapate....

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

#207 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:17 am

I wouldn't be surprised at all on that track taking it east of FL.

stormtruth · #208 Postby **stormtruth** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:18 am

HurricaneJim wrote:New Navy WAM run just posted ramps this thing up big time south of Long Island (!). Buzz saw up the FL coast and runs Gulf Stream all the way up.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

That would result in a big disaster! :eek:

#209 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:18 am

Ernesto seems to be getting a little better organized tonight judging by that radar loop. In the begining there is not much convection but, you can see the increase of convection as the loop moves on. We may wake up to a better organized system just before it makes landfall over eastern cuba.

Droop12 · #210 Postby **Droop12** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:21 am

VDM says pressure is rising. Im calling it quits on this one for now. Goodnight guys, be back in the morning.

Timedrifter · #211 Postby **Timedrifter** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:22 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:Ernesto seems to be getting a little better organized tonight judging by that radar loop. In the begining there is not much convection but, you can see the increase of convection as the loop moves on. We may wake up to a better organized system just before it makes landfall over eastern cuba.

It sure looks that way
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satrgnlloop.master.pl?caribbean&type=mbir

HurricaneJim · #212 Postby **HurricaneJim** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:23 am

No landfall, but some hellatious surf at the hamptons. There's too much frontal action moving east from the midwest. But this buzz saw effect (if it indeed occurs) is going to have the power crews from Daytona to Deleware scrambling like those mini people tying down Gulliver.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

#213 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:24 am

New GFDL showing Landfall in souther florida moving northward through the Peninsula. Cat 1 winds throughout S. Florida.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

CMC showing a southern florida hit
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

GFS showing a southern florida hit
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

MM5 Showing a South Florida Hit
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

UKMET showing a south Florida Hit
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Website · #214 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:25 am

26 kt, 1008 mb?

Goodbye.

Droop12 · #215 Postby **Droop12** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:26 am

Brent wrote:26 kt, 1008 mb?

Goodbye.

Exactly my thoughts.

Tropicswatcher · #216 Postby **Tropicswatcher** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:26 am

Things are looking really bad for Ernesto...!

#217 Postby **WxGuy1** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:27 am

The Gauntanamo Bay radar is a C-band system with output power of (I'm guessing, from the "Radar type" description) 250,000 watts. C-band attenuates considerably more than the S-band systems that you usually see (e.g. WSR-88D / NEXRAD radars are S-band); 250,000W is about 33% of the power output of the NEXRAD radar system. So, it may be a little more difficult to judge if convection is expanding or if the system is just drawing nearer to the island, so it just appears as though convection is expanding (in this case, SNR may be very low at long ranges to the east and southeast owing to attentuation losses). Just a note.

Latest VORTEX message indicates (or "still" indicates, as all previous VDMs have since this afternoon) that Ernesto is probably a TD. Sure, it may not have sampled the highest winds, but I've heard that all afternoon in regards to prevoius VDMs. It's likely borderline TD/TS (as I suspect it has been since mid-afternoon).

bostonseminole · #218 Postby **bostonseminole** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:27 am

geez, is down to a TD ..

HurricaneJim · #219 Postby **HurricaneJim** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:27 am

Give Water a Chance!

My bet is still on Navy. They don't have to worry about voters, only multi million dollar destroyers.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

Thunder44 · #220 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:29 am

Brent wrote:26 kt, 1008 mb?

Goodbye.

Dropsonde in the eye reported at 29kt wind, so it may be closer 1005mb or 1006mb. Nevertheless it doesn't appear to be strengthening.

Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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