Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[ronjon]

Expect some track shifts slightly to the west based on the latest 12 GFS. No doubt the GFDL will follow suit. I think we're in the "fine tuning" phase of the track modeling over the next 36 hrs. Any slight deviation will put the center of the storm on the SE coast, the everglades, or the SW coast - we probably won't know for certain until 12 hrs out. I did notice, however, that all models take 30 hrs to move the system from south to north FL - if this verifies, we might expect some very high rainfall totals over a large swath of the state.

From TBW AFD:

12Z NAM HAS ERNESTO TRACKING WELL EAST OF THE STATE...WHEREAS GFS AND UKMET HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD THE WEST...HAVING LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST AND MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WANT TO WAIT FOR THE 5 PM ADVISORY BEFORE DECIDING ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANY INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES.

[TampaFl]

2:00PM position.

[HurricaneJim]

That's not what it looks like on SAT. The "True" center might be there, but the maw that's bringing in the food are NE of that.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[AJC3]

hey wxman,
what do you think about the below in the 2:00 pm discussion? It looks to me like the center will be moving off the coast much faster, but they say, maybe as late as tonight? do you agree with this??


"Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center should emerge off the north coast of Cuba
later today or tonight."

I think the NHC is wish-casting this to be a TS currently. There's no trackable LLC to estimate a forward speed on. Would they upgrade something so poorly-organized to a TD? They just can never let go of a storm.

NHC -removed-? Chris, this is totally unfair and borders on below-the-belt.

You cannot expect NHC to operationally declare this system dissipated into an open wave given the likely response by the media and more importantly the public, especially considering the potential for re-emergence and re-intensification. A clear trend that shows this will REMAIN an open wave at the surface needs to be established. This takes time. There is still convective vigor and vorticity above the surface.

Let me get you for the record on this...are you saying that this will NOT re-emerge or re-strengthen?

[BensonTCwatcher]

The NHC track is E of all the models??
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

I'm sticking with the GFDL. Although depending on initialization of the center (when we can get recon in there) could put this more north though 12 hours, more east through 24, and then line up on the GFDL solution at around 72 hrs.

[Blown Away]

Kind of wild to see all the models converging within the FL peninsula 36+ hours out!

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

[WxGuy1]

This could be very interesting should it be confirmed that this is no longer a cyclone (i.e. it's an open wave). The low-level "spin" should move with the ambient/environmental low-level flow, which seem to indicate that the 'remnants' of the low-level circulation would move westward (or maybe even WSW looking at low-level winds from UWisc). Model forecasts are showing weak 850mb winds in the eastern Gulf and the FL straights, but stronger WNW flow south of Cuba, and WSW flow near the Yucatan and westward, though this is greatly complicated by the models' presence of Ernesto (so I need to "remove" Ernesto from the fields and subjectively estimate the synoptic windfield without Ernesto). All this said, intense convection continues off the southeastern coast of Cuba... The way this is going, we'll probably see another LLC develop under that convection, and we'll be dealing with an Ernesto that we were expecting late last week LOL

[drezee]

GFDL is no joke for the Carolinas:

[JonathanBelles]

is there any chance that the track could be shifted back west?

[cpdaman]

very good point they need to call it a storm because of its potential to restrengthen soon

and the publics knee jerk reaction to hearing it is no longer ernesto would be chaotic to say the least if they wake up in the morning to find out it had restrengthend to a hurricane by the time they woke up some people don't "GET IT"

[HurricaneJim]

NHC isn't -removed-. They come from a MET background that is traditionally atmospherics heavy. They don't always watch the water like oceanographers do.

And from a standpoint of being a gov't agency responsible for official forecasting upon which the contingencies of millions rely, they have a huge responsibility and don't think that they don't know it.

My hat is always off to them, they experience pressures from many directions and they bear it professionally and well.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[jpigott]

is there anyway you could post an image of what the GDFL does at Florida landfall

[Damar91]

Well. we are almost out of time. I sure hope someone figures something out soon!

[CocoCreek]

hey wxman,
what do you think about the below in the 2:00 pm discussion? It looks to me like the center will be moving off the coast much faster, but they say, maybe as late as tonight? do you agree with this??


"Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center should emerge off the north coast of Cuba
later today or tonight."

I think the NHC is wish-casting this to be a TS currently. There's no trackable LLC to estimate a forward speed on. Would they upgrade something so poorly-organized to a TD? They just can never let go of a storm.

NHC -removed-? Chris, this is totally unfair and borders on below-the-belt.

You cannot expect NHC to operationally declare this system dissipated into an open wave given the likely response by the media and more importantly the public, especially considering the potential for re-emergence and re-intensification. A clear trend that shows this will REMAIN an open wave at the surface needs to be established. This takes time. There is still convective vigor and vorticity above the surface.

Let me get you for the record on this...are you saying that this will NOT re-emerge or re-strengthen?

I agree. I don't think that with a storm that has been so unpredictable that unless all signs pointed to dissipation that it would be a good idea for the NHC to kill this off, and then possibly only 6-12 hours later have to sound the alarm bells again. The you run into complacency problems with the public on future storms.

[wxman57]

I think the NHC is wish-casting this to be a TS currently. There's no trackable LLC to estimate a forward speed on. Would they upgrade something so poorly-organized to a TD? They just can never let go of a storm.

NHC -removed-? Chris, this is totally unfair and borders on below-the-belt.

You cannot expect NHC to operationally declare this system dissipated into an open wave given the likely response by the media and more importantly the public, especially considering the potential for re-emergence and re-intensification. A clear trend that shows this will REMAIN an open wave at the surface needs to be established. This takes time. There is still convective vigor and vorticity above the surface.

Let me get you for the record on this...are you saying that this will NOT re-emerge or re-strengthen?

Oh, I realize the NHC has many things to consider when downgrading a storm. But is there really any evidence that this is a TS? Perhaps another non-biased agency should determine current intensity?

My forecast brings it to a Cat 2-3 off the Carolinas, perhaps a track similar to Dennis of '99 or Ophelia last year.

[CrazyC83]

I think the NHC is wish-casting this to be a TS currently. There's no trackable LLC to estimate a forward speed on. Would they upgrade something so poorly-organized to a TD? They just can never let go of a storm.

NHC -removed-? Chris, this is totally unfair and borders on below-the-belt.

You cannot expect NHC to operationally declare this system dissipated into an open wave given the likely response by the media and more importantly the public, especially considering the potential for re-emergence and re-intensification. A clear trend that shows this will REMAIN an open wave at the surface needs to be established. This takes time. There is still convective vigor and vorticity above the surface.

Let me get you for the record on this...are you saying that this will NOT re-emerge or re-strengthen?

Oh, I realize the NHC has many things to consider when downgrading a storm. But is there really any evidence that this is a TS? Perhaps another non-biased agency should determine current intensity?

My forecast brings it to a Cat 2-3 off the Carolinas, perhaps a track similar to Dennis of '99 or Ophelia last year.

What about a track following the Gulf Stream to sea?

[HurricaneJim]

Well, the golden rule of combat is....prepare for the worst, hope for the best and somewhere in between will come what it is (unless you were Geo. Custer).

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[cpdaman]

wxman if u see this as a strong storm off the carolinas and u see it as an open wave , is this based on the center reforming developing near the north coast of cuba since the original llC may now be drifting somewhere through the mountains with castro's ghost

[JonathanBelles]

is there any chance that the track could be shifted back west?

anyone?

[storms in NC]

"My forecast brings it to a Cat 2-3 off the Carolinas, perhaps a track similar to Dennis of '99 or Ophelia last year."

You could have gone alday and not said that. Maybe just a rain maker Here In NC.