TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

Stratusxpeye · #201 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:11 pm

[img=http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/8335/storm05zc7.th.gif]

I've been noticing a shift again back westward since noon today in the models as well as per the image below. If it survives the land crossing. Unsure on any intesity estimate.

Website · #202 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:12 pm

marcane_1973 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Who wants to be the 1st to say Ernesto is done? As in Cuba got him...
I do. Ernestos center was never healthy to begin with. Conditions were never really that favorable in that region from the get go so what do you expect. This was a weakling from the start and now to his finish. Steve Lyons i think your right. Tomorrow morning we will all wake up to a depression or maybe not even that.

I think it's a depression now. It sure looks depressing(no pun intended).

#203 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:13 pm

If he doesn't start gaining lattitude and that ridge start moving and weakening, Ernesto ain't going to catch no trough.

#204 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:13 pm

your all writing off this storm ust because of one little move to the WNW!

DESTRUCTION5 · #205 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:14 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:your all writing off this storm ust because of one little move to the WNW!

No because there is no LLC..Period

bombarderoazul · #206 Postby **bombarderoazul** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:17 pm

It looks like a depression to me, I will be surprised if they kept this thing at storm strength. I mean it's barely a storm.

ronjon · #207 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:19 pm

tgenius wrote:so new runs of GFDL actually still have em over Cuba right now? Do any other 18z models currently still have em over cuba?

All the models that predict a Homestead-Miami landfall have the storm exiting Cuba by 2 am. The other models that track the storm up the west coast of FL have Ernie overland another 12-18 hrs.

#208 Postby **CronkPSU** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:19 pm

i am guessing they keep it at TS status if for no other reason, we don't know how strong the winds are near the center

wxmann_91 · #209 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:20 pm

This westward turn should not be a surprise. The ULL carved a slight weakness, now the ridge is rebuilding ever so slightly. The next trough is the one that turns Ernesto back northward.

ronjon · #210 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:22 pm

Surprisely, the one model that is verifying now with the current course is the BAMD - the far left outlier that takes E into the panhandle.

ShilohCane · #211 Postby **ShilohCane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:22 pm

Any chance it moves into the Gulf of Mexico and comes up the West coast of Flordia?

wxwatcher91 · #212 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:23 pm

Wow. And the first forecasts from practically everyone that came out for little old TD 5 said a dangerous hurricane was possible in the Gulf... This was a bust for every forecast out there, track-wise and intensity-wise.

Josephine96 · #213 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:23 pm

Come on Ernie, leave Cuba alone..

Emmett_Brown · #214 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:23 pm

Sometimes it helps to step back a little, and take a look at the storm from a distance...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Now it isnt pretty, but it still has a fairly large envelope, and a lot more convection in recent ours. Upper level conditions are not ideal, but better than they were earlier today.

This morning, Ernie was just a puff ball. Also, while the LLC is very difficult to locate, there is a general closed circulation over a larger area. I wouldnt be surprised to see another center forming somewhere to the NE of Cuba, while the whole system moves W/NW.

Earnie isnt toast just yet, but the rebuilding process might take a while. If it does manage to get into the straights, then gulf, look out.

#215 Postby **CronkPSU** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:24 pm

to be honest, looking at the GOES Sat for 0:45, it looks like the storm is right on the NHC path and will be exiting in the next few hours

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

gtalum · #216 Postby **gtalum** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:25 pm

CronkPSU wrote:to be honest, looking at the GOES Sat for 0:45, it looks like the storm is right on the NHC path and will be exiting in the next few hours

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

That's what I was thinking, but maybe I'm crazy. It's hard to find the center in that mess.

Sanibel · #217 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:25 pm

You're being fooled by knee-jerk naysayers. There's still a lot of rotation in that broad LLC.

Praxus · #218 Postby **Praxus** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:27 pm

I think Earnesto is taking his time and looking for an opportune place to slip into the US.
Isn't that how it normally works south of the border anyways

#219 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:28 pm

All I know is every time this year I look at the BIG PICTURE, I see a hurricane in the EASTPAC!!

Sanibel · #220 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:28 pm

Thunder boomers over the island. May be entrained in the first outside edge of the system.

TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

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