TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

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storms in NC
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#201 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:14 pm

Brent wrote:
jschlitz wrote:It looks obvious to me it is well east of the forecast point and moving quicker than forecasted. The "now" was the 10AM position:

Image


Yeah it is. This storm isn't a big deal at all either... no way it's going to strengthen more than MAYBE 5 mph with no temperature difference.

and it's not going to the Gulf either.


Thanks Brent. I know it is only going to ba a rain maker here. But the gulf Stream may bring it up to a strong TS you just don't know what this thing is going to do or go after South fla.
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#202 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:14 pm

jschlitz wrote:
feederband wrote:
jschlitz wrote:It looks obvious to me it is well east of the forecast point and moving quicker than forecasted. The "now" was the 10AM position:

Image


Thats just a clearing in the radar ...Not the center...


Look at a loop. It's obvious. It's headed for Key Largo/Upper Keys. No way it's going to the GOM.


heck look at how florida is slanted there, it could definitely ride along the coast like it did over cuba before taking the NE turn
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#203 Postby THead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:15 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Wilma weakened by 1 full category over the everglades

The evrglades will only dampen the weakening. However, weaker systems tend to weaken less over the Peninsula than do major hurricanes
Remember Wilma went through rapid intensification back to category 3 status right after crossing the everglades.


Yeah, I didn't want to get started on this, disputing ole Wilma's strength, but I'm not sure it ever released it Cat 3 status. I think it was just a massive failure or lack of enough accurate observation equipment. I've lived in S. Fla for 25 years, and.........ah, nevermind...........she was a freak. :wink:
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#204 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:16 pm

storms in NC wrote:
Brent wrote:
jschlitz wrote:It looks obvious to me it is well east of the forecast point and moving quicker than forecasted. The "now" was the 10AM position:

Image


Yeah it is. This storm isn't a big deal at all either... no way it's going to strengthen more than MAYBE 5 mph with no temperature difference.

and it's not going to the Gulf either.


Thanks Brent. I know it is only going to ba a rain maker here. But the gulf Stream may bring it up to a strong TS you just don't know what this thing is going to do or go after South fla.


Yeah, I'm talking about Florida. What happens afterwards depends on what it looks like when it leaves Florida(which since it's remaining weak may not be much).
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#205 Postby boca » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:16 pm

At this point this will be a rain maker with a 2 day vacation for the kids.
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#206 Postby feederband » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:16 pm

Step away from your screen about 3 feet ...Tell me where its going..


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
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#207 Postby Grease Monkey » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:17 pm

I just don't see what you guys are seeing. It doesn't look so obvious it's heading for key largo in my opinion.
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#208 Postby rnbaida » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:17 pm

feederband wrote:Step away from your screen about 3 feet ...Tell me where its going..


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
It looks like it is heading into the gulf....
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#209 Postby gtalum » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:17 pm

Look at the visible. It's heading to the upper keys, slightly right of the NHC.
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#210 Postby boca » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:18 pm

feederband wrote:Step away from your screen about 3 feet ...Tell me where its going..


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes


WNW
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#211 Postby feederband » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:18 pm

rnbaida wrote:
feederband wrote:Step away from your screen about 3 feet ...Tell me where its going..


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
It looks like it is heading into the gulf....


We have a winner... :wink:
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#212 Postby Zardoz » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:18 pm

feederband wrote:Step away from your screen about 3 feet ...Tell me where its going...

Key West
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#213 Postby craptacular » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:18 pm

gtalum wrote:Recon has several times now located the center, east and north of where the NHC track has predicted it will be. Thus I predict a track move to the east, though only a small one.


A couple of us over in the recon discussion thread seem to think the 17:43 recon VDM was the only good one, and not the prior two. The 17:43 VDM position was west of the 18:00 (2PM EDT)advisory position.
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#214 Postby cinlfla » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:18 pm

feederband wrote:Step away from your screen about 3 feet ...Tell me where its going..


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes



Looks like its moving NW to me I do see a west movement though.
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#215 Postby seaswing » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:18 pm

feederband wrote:Step away from your screen about 3 feet ...Tell me where its going..


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes


Looks WNW to me
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#216 Postby feederband » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:19 pm

gtalum wrote:Look at the visible. It's heading to the upper keys, slightly right of the NHC.


Put another quater in.. :wink:
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#217 Postby rnbaida » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:19 pm

WE MAY HAVE A GULF STORM...NOBODY SAY IT WONT HAPPEN....YOU ARE NOT GOD AND YOUR OPTIONS ARE APPRECIATED BUT DONT SOUND SO SURE....
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#218 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:19 pm

feederband wrote:Step away from your screen about 3 feet ...Tell me where its going..


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes


Toward the SW tip of Florida. Could come inland as far west as Naples, but there is nothing near the center in the way of major squalls, so don't focus on the center. H3aviest squalls are now moving ashore into the upper Keys.
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#219 Postby THead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:20 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:I just don't see what you guys are seeing. It doesn't look so obvious it's heading for key largo in my opinion.


Looks like Key Largo or just south of it.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes
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#220 Postby carve » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:20 pm

I don't think it is to far fetched to say it may be heading into the eastern gulf. It looks to be heading just south of Florida through the keys...not an expert..just the naked eye.
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